revert(agent): stop applying the measured CMTrace offset — one offset per file is wrong

Field regression, session e9753578 (agent 2.0.1410, PST-defaulted device in DE). Five script_started events resolved 9 h early while their script_completed counterparts resolved correctly, inflating every platform-script duration to ~32,400 s. Reverts the application introduced in e9dba11b. Root cause: calibration keeps ONE offset per log file, but a single file can hold lines from two writer eras. IME restarting across a timezone change leaves older lines in the old zone and newer ones in the new zone, in the same file. The anchor is the newest line, so its offset was also applied to the older lines, for which it does not hold. The class doc even claimed "self-healing on writer restart" — that reasoning only ever covered FUTURE lines, never the ones already on disk. The more expensive mistake was the second one: correcting ABSOLUTE timestamps without checking what depends on their DIFFERENCES. Applying the reader zone uniformly is wrong in absolute terms but self-consistent — both ends of a duration are wrong by the same amount, so the duration is right. Correcting only some timestamps produced a mixed frame inside one session, which is strictly worse than being uniformly wrong. This is the same asymmetry the original analysis described for AppInstallSummaries (68 min reported against 8 min real) and then reproduced. What stays, deliberately: - Bias-carrying lines still resolve via the writer-declared offset; that path was never implicated. - The measurement keeps running. It costs nothing, feeds the Info log, and is the field data the era-aware fix has to be built on — the first anlauf got the era question wrong from assumption rather than observation. - Provenance now separates measured from applied (measuredWriterOffsetMinutes vs sourceOffsetMinutes). The broken event was tagged "calibrated" while carrying an offset that did not hold for its line; that confusion must not be expressible. - The fallback path reports the offset it actually applied. An event stating no offset cannot be recomputed later, which defeats the point of provenance. Provenance earned its keep here: 57 events measured -420 (the PDT writer) against 5 at +120 made the diagnosis a two-minute query instead of median statistics over a session. Next: era-aware calibration keyed on the IME-STARTED marker, which we already track, plus a test over a log file containing two writer eras — the case that was missing. Agent 2393 green against a verified-clean build. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
feat(agent): carry timestamp provenance on IME-derived events
2026-10-25 13:10:13 +00:00 · 2026-08-20 14:31:50 +02:00 · 2026-08-20 14:05:32 +02:00 · 2026-08-20 14:05:31 +02:00 · 2026-08-20 13:49:14 +02:00 · 2026-08-20 13:35:43 +02:00
221 changed files with 15351 additions and 924 deletions
@@ -0,0 +1,367 @@
+<#
+.SYNOPSIS
+    Publishes the customer-facing PowerShell scripts behind download.autopilotmonitor.com/agent/.
+
+.DESCRIPTION
+    Single owner of the script-publishing chain. Called from two places:
+
+      * publish-scripts.yml  -- on every push to main that touches the sources,
+                                so a script fix reaches customers without waiting
+                                for an agent release.
+      * build-agent.yml      -- on a publish_as_stable run, so a release always
+                                lands a consistent set (ZIP + manifest + scripts).
+
+    Both callers run the same code. The scripts on the download alias are the live
+    copy the WDP bootstrap MSI (Invoke-BootstrapDownload.ps1) downloads on every
+    enrolling device, so "current" is a correctness property, not cosmetics.
+
+    Steps, in order:
+      1. Parse $ScriptVersion from the bootstrap source.
+      2. Render the -Dev variant by literal substitution of the two URL/manifest
+         defaults. A missing anchor is a hard failure -- a silently un-substituted
+         dev script would point the dev fleet at the stable agent.
+      3. Version-bump guard: if the published bootstrap differs from the source
+         but carries the same $ScriptVersion, abort. Otherwise the docs badge,
+         version.json.bootstrapVersion and the portal's "your script is outdated"
+         hint would all keep asserting a version that is no longer what ships.
+      4. Upload every script blob with Cache-Control: no-cache (they rotate in
+         place), mirrored fail-soft to the legacy account.
+      5. Reconcile the two version oracles: version.json.bootstrapVersion
+         (read-modify-write under If-Match, so a concurrent agent release cannot
+         lose its agent fields) and AdminConfiguration.LatestBootstrapV2ScriptVersion.
+      6. Verify through the alias -- re-download each blob and compare SHA-256.
+
+.PARAMETER SasToken
+    Container SAS for the eu storage account with write permission. Leading '?' tolerated.
+
+.PARAMETER LegacySasToken
+    Container SAS for the legacy account. Optional -- a mirror failure warns, never fails.
+
+.PARAMETER TableSasToken
+    Table SAS for AdminConfiguration. Optional -- omitted or 'XXX' skips the oracle update.
+
+.PARAMETER RepoRoot
+    Repository root. Defaults to the parent of .github/scripts.
+
+.PARAMETER DryRun
+    Run every check and render, upload nothing.
+
+.EXAMPLE
+    ./Publish-BootstrapScripts.ps1 -DryRun
+
+.EXAMPLE
+    ./Publish-BootstrapScripts.ps1 -SasToken $env:SAS -TableSasToken $env:TABLE_SAS
+#>
+[CmdletBinding()]
+param(
+    [string]$SasToken,
+    [string]$LegacySasToken,
+    [string]$TableSasToken,
+    [string]$RepoRoot,
+    [switch]$DryRun
+)
+
+$ErrorActionPreference = 'Stop'
+
+if (-not $RepoRoot) {
+    $RepoRoot = (Resolve-Path (Join-Path $PSScriptRoot '../..')).Path
+}
+if (-not $DryRun -and [string]::IsNullOrWhiteSpace($SasToken)) {
+    throw 'SasToken is required unless -DryRun is used.'
+}
+
+$ContainerUrl       = 'https://autopilotmonitoreu.blob.core.windows.net/agent'
+$LegacyContainerUrl = 'https://autopilotmonitor.blob.core.windows.net/agent'
+$AliasUrl           = 'https://download.autopilotmonitor.com/agent'
+$TableUrl           = "https://autopilotmonitoreu.table.core.windows.net/AdminConfiguration(PartitionKey='GlobalConfig',RowKey='config')"
+
+$BootstrapSource   = Join-Path $RepoRoot 'scripts/Bootstrap/Install-AutopilotMonitor.ps1'
+$BootstrapBlob     = 'Install-AutopilotMonitor.ps1'
+$DevBlob           = 'Install-AutopilotMonitor-Dev.ps1'
+$ScriptContentType = 'text/plain; charset=utf-8'
+
+function Get-HttpStatus {
+    param($ErrorRecord)
+    if ($ErrorRecord.Exception.PSObject.Properties['Response'] -and $ErrorRecord.Exception.Response) {
+        return [int]$ErrorRecord.Exception.Response.StatusCode
+    }
+    return 0
+}
+
+function Get-Sha256 {
+    param([byte[]]$Bytes)
+    $sha = [System.Security.Cryptography.SHA256]::Create()
+    try { return [BitConverter]::ToString($sha.ComputeHash($Bytes)).Replace('-', '').ToLowerInvariant() }
+    finally { $sha.Dispose() }
+}
+
+# Raw bytes of a published blob, or $null when it does not exist yet.
+function Get-PublishedBytes {
+    param([string]$Url)
+    try {
+        $resp = Invoke-WebRequest -Uri $Url -Method Get -UseBasicParsing
+    } catch {
+        if ((Get-HttpStatus $_) -eq 404) { return $null }
+        throw
+    }
+    # Comma operator: PowerShell unrolls an array returned from a function into the output
+    # stream and reassembles it as Object[], which would silently defeat every [byte[]] use
+    # downstream. ',' wraps it so the byte[] survives the return.
+    if ($resp.Content -is [byte[]]) { return ,$resp.Content }
+    return ,[System.Text.Encoding]::UTF8.GetBytes([string]$resp.Content)
+}
+
+# Deterministic publish form: CRLF, UTF-8 without BOM. Git normalises line endings on
+# checkout (a Windows runner yields CRLF, a core.autocrlf=false clone yields LF), so
+# publishing the raw working-copy bytes would emit different blobs for identical source
+# and make every byte comparison -- guard and verify alike -- environment-dependent.
+# CRLF is also what PS 5.1 on the device expects and what is published today.
+function Get-PublishBytes {
+    param([string]$Text)
+    $normalised = $Text.Replace("`r`n", "`n").Replace("`n", "`r`n")
+    # ',' keeps this a byte[]: without it PowerShell unrolls the array into the output stream
+    # and the caller receives Object[]. Invoke-RestMethod then serialises an Object[] body as
+    # space-separated decimals instead of raw bytes -- a silent corruption of the upload.
+    return ,(New-Object System.Text.UTF8Encoding $false).GetBytes($normalised)
+}
+
+function Get-BootstrapScriptVersion {
+    param([string]$Content, [string]$Origin, [switch]$Optional)
+    if ($Content -match '\$ScriptVersion\s*=\s*"([\d\.\-a-zA-Z]+)"') { return $Matches[1] }
+    # Unreadable SOURCE is fatal. An unreadable PUBLISHED copy must not be: that is exactly
+    # the state a republish is meant to repair, and a guard that blocks the repair is worse
+    # than no guard.
+    if ($Optional) { return $null }
+    throw "Could not parse ScriptVersion from $Origin"
+}
+
+# What the script actually DOES, with comments and layout removed: the PowerShell token
+# stream minus comments, newlines and line continuations. Lets the version-bump guard tell
+# a behaviour change (must be versioned -- consumers act on the version) apart from a
+# comment fix or reflow (nobody needs to know). Tokenising rather than regex-stripping
+# keeps '#' inside strings from being mistaken for a comment.
+function Get-CodeFingerprint {
+    param([string]$Text, [string]$Origin)
+    $tokens = $null
+    $errors = $null
+    [System.Management.Automation.Language.Parser]::ParseInput($Text, [ref]$tokens, [ref]$errors) | Out-Null
+    if ($errors -and $errors.Count -gt 0) {
+        throw "Parse error in ${Origin}: $($errors[0])"
+    }
+    $ignored = @('Comment', 'NewLine', 'LineContinuation', 'EndOfInput')
+    return (($tokens | Where-Object { $ignored -notcontains $_.Kind.ToString() } | ForEach-Object { $_.Text }) -join "`n")
+}
+
+# ------------------------------------------------------------------ 1. source
+$sourceContent = Get-Content $BootstrapSource -Raw
+$sourceBytes   = Get-PublishBytes $sourceContent
+$scriptVersion = Get-BootstrapScriptVersion -Content $sourceContent -Origin $BootstrapSource
+Write-Host "Bootstrap script version: $scriptVersion"
+
+# ------------------------------------------------------------------ 2. dev render
+$stableUrlLiteral = '$AgentDownloadUrl = "https://download.autopilotmonitor.com/agent/AutopilotMonitor-Agent.zip"'
+$devUrlLiteral    = '$AgentDownloadUrl = "https://download.autopilotmonitor.com/agent/AutopilotMonitor-Agent-dev.zip"'
+$stableManLiteral = '$VersionJsonName = "version.json"'
+$devManLiteral    = '$VersionJsonName = "version-dev.json"'
+
+if ($sourceContent.IndexOf($stableUrlLiteral) -lt 0 -or $sourceContent.IndexOf($stableManLiteral) -lt 0) {
+    throw "Bootstrap dev-render: anchor literal missing in $BootstrapSource"
+}
+$devContent = $sourceContent.Replace($stableUrlLiteral, $devUrlLiteral).Replace($stableManLiteral, $devManLiteral)
+Write-Host "Rendered $DevBlob (dev agent URL + version-dev.json)"
+
+# ------------------------------------------------------------------ 3. bump guard
+$publishedBytes = Get-PublishedBytes "$AliasUrl/$BootstrapBlob"
+if ($null -eq $publishedBytes) {
+    Write-Host 'No published bootstrap yet -- version-bump guard skipped (first publish)'
+} elseif ((Get-Sha256 $publishedBytes) -eq (Get-Sha256 $sourceBytes)) {
+    Write-Host 'Published bootstrap is already byte-identical to the source'
+} else {
+    $publishedText    = [System.Text.Encoding]::UTF8.GetString($publishedBytes)
+    $publishedVersion = Get-BootstrapScriptVersion -Content $publishedText -Origin "$AliasUrl/$BootstrapBlob" -Optional
+
+    if ($null -eq $publishedVersion) {
+        Write-Host "::warning::The published $BootstrapBlob is not a readable bootstrap script (no ScriptVersion found). Republishing over it."
+    } elseif ($publishedVersion -ne $scriptVersion) {
+        Write-Host "Version bump: $publishedVersion -> $scriptVersion"
+    } elseif ((Get-CodeFingerprint -Text $publishedText -Origin "$AliasUrl/$BootstrapBlob") -eq
+              (Get-CodeFingerprint -Text $sourceContent -Origin $BootstrapSource)) {
+        # Comments, typos in comments, reflow -- nothing a consumer of the version can act on.
+        Write-Host "::warning::$BootstrapBlob changed in comments or formatting only; publishing under the unchanged version $scriptVersion."
+    } else {
+        throw ("Version-bump guard: $BootstrapBlob changed behaviour but ScriptVersion is still $scriptVersion. " +
+               "Bump it in $BootstrapSource -- the docs badge, version.json.bootstrapVersion and the " +
+               'portal outdated-script hint all read that value, and customers decide from it whether ' +
+               'to re-upload their Intune copy. Comment-only and formatting changes do not need a bump.')
+    }
+}
+
+# ------------------------------------------------------------------ 4. upload
+# Sources beyond the bootstrap pair, read straight from the repo.
+$extraSources = @(
+    @{ Path = 'scripts/Bootstrap/Test-ShouldBootstrapAgent.ps1';       BlobName = 'Test-ShouldBootstrapAgent.ps1' }
+    # Customer-side Graph add-on grant script -- docs and admin UI link it directly.
+    @{ Path = 'scripts/CustomerSetup/Grant-AutopilotMonitorAddOn.ps1'; BlobName = 'Grant-AutopilotMonitorAddOn.ps1' }
+)
+# Uninstall-AutopilotMonitor.ps1 is deliberately NOT published: nothing links it, and
+# an unauthenticated uninstall script on the public download host is not a feature.
+
+$publishSet = [System.Collections.Generic.List[object]]::new()
+$publishSet.Add([pscustomobject]@{ BlobName = $BootstrapBlob; Bytes = $sourceBytes })
+$publishSet.Add([pscustomobject]@{ BlobName = $DevBlob;       Bytes = (Get-PublishBytes $devContent) })
+foreach ($extra in $extraSources) {
+    $extraPath = Join-Path $RepoRoot $extra.Path
+    if (-not (Test-Path $extraPath)) {
+        throw "Publish source missing: $extraPath"
+    }
+    $publishSet.Add([pscustomobject]@{ BlobName = $extra.BlobName; Bytes = (Get-PublishBytes (Get-Content $extraPath -Raw)) })
+}
+
+$legacySas = if ($LegacySasToken) { $LegacySasToken.TrimStart('?') } else { '' }
+$writeSas  = if ($SasToken) { $SasToken.TrimStart('?') } else { '' }
+
+foreach ($item in $publishSet) {
+    # Explicit type, not a convenience: an Object[] body is uploaded as space-separated
+    # decimals rather than raw bytes, and every hash check still passes because [byte[]]
+    # parameter coercion repairs it everywhere EXCEPT the wire.
+    [byte[]]$bytes = $item.Bytes
+    $item | Add-Member -NotePropertyName Sha256 -NotePropertyValue (Get-Sha256 $bytes) -Force
+
+    if ($DryRun) {
+        # Doubles as a drift check: says per blob whether the alias already serves this source.
+        $served = Get-PublishedBytes "$AliasUrl/$($item.BlobName)"
+        $state = if ($null -eq $served) { 'MISSING on the alias' }
+                 elseif ((Get-Sha256 $served) -eq $item.Sha256) { 'already current' }
+                 else { 'STALE on the alias' }
+        Write-Host "  [dry-run] $($item.BlobName) ($($bytes.Length) bytes, sha256 $($item.Sha256)) -- $state"
+        continue
+    }
+
+    # no-cache on every blob: they all rotate in place and the download alias fronts them
+    # with Front Door. Route caching is disabled there, but a stale script paired with a
+    # fresh manifest would fail the bootstrap SHA check -- this keeps that class of bug
+    # impossible even if caching is ever re-enabled.
+    $headers = @{ 'x-ms-blob-type' = 'BlockBlob'; 'Content-Type' = $ScriptContentType; 'x-ms-blob-cache-control' = 'no-cache' }
+    Invoke-RestMethod -Uri "$ContainerUrl/$($item.BlobName)?$writeSas" -Method Put -Headers $headers -Body $bytes | Out-Null
+
+    # Read straight back from the blob (authoritative, no CDN in the way) before touching the
+    # mirror or the next file. The alias verification at the end would catch a bad body too,
+    # but only after every blob was already overwritten -- these are live customer downloads.
+    $written = Get-PublishedBytes "$ContainerUrl/$($item.BlobName)"
+    if ($null -eq $written -or (Get-Sha256 $written) -ne $item.Sha256) {
+        $writtenLength = if ($null -eq $written) { 'missing' } else { "$($written.Length) bytes" }
+        throw ("Upload of $($item.BlobName) did not round-trip: sent $($bytes.Length) bytes, " +
+               "blob now holds $writtenLength. Publishing stopped before the mirror and the " +
+               'remaining files, so no further blob was touched.')
+    }
+    Write-Host "  uploaded $($item.BlobName) ($($bytes.Length) bytes, round-trip verified)"
+
+    if ($legacySas) {
+        try {
+            Invoke-RestMethod -Uri "$LegacyContainerUrl/$($item.BlobName)?$legacySas" -Method Put -Headers $headers -Body $bytes | Out-Null
+            Write-Host "  mirrored $($item.BlobName) to legacy storage"
+        } catch {
+            Write-Host "::warning::legacy mirror failed for $($item.BlobName) -- $($_.Exception.Message)"
+        }
+    }
+}
+
+# ------------------------------------------------------------------ 5. version oracles
+# version.json is the agent manifest; only bootstrapVersion belongs to us. Read from the
+# blob (not the alias) for an authoritative ETag, write back under If-Match so a concurrent
+# agent release cannot lose its version/sha256 fields.
+if (-not $DryRun) {
+    try {
+        $manifestResp = Invoke-WebRequest -Uri "$ContainerUrl/version.json" -Method Get -UseBasicParsing
+        $manifestRaw = if ($manifestResp.Content -is [byte[]]) {
+            [System.Text.Encoding]::UTF8.GetString($manifestResp.Content)
+        } else { [string]$manifestResp.Content }
+        $manifest = $manifestRaw | ConvertFrom-Json
+
+        if ($manifest.bootstrapVersion -eq $scriptVersion) {
+            Write-Host "version.json already reports bootstrapVersion $scriptVersion"
+        } else {
+            $etag = '"' + ([string]($manifestResp.Headers['ETag'] | Select-Object -First 1)).Trim('"') + '"'
+            $manifest | Add-Member -NotePropertyName 'bootstrapVersion' -NotePropertyValue $scriptVersion -Force
+            $body = [System.Text.Encoding]::UTF8.GetBytes(($manifest | ConvertTo-Json -Compress))
+            $manifestHeaders = @{
+                'x-ms-blob-type'          = 'BlockBlob'
+                'Content-Type'            = 'application/json'
+                'x-ms-blob-cache-control' = 'no-cache'
+                'If-Match'                = $etag
+            }
+            Invoke-RestMethod -Uri "$ContainerUrl/version.json?$writeSas" -Method Put -Headers $manifestHeaders -Body $body | Out-Null
+            Write-Host "version.json bootstrapVersion -> $scriptVersion (agent fields untouched)"
+
+            if ($legacySas) {
+                try {
+                    $legacyHeaders = @{ 'x-ms-blob-type' = 'BlockBlob'; 'Content-Type' = 'application/json'; 'x-ms-blob-cache-control' = 'no-cache' }
+                    Invoke-RestMethod -Uri "$LegacyContainerUrl/version.json?$legacySas" -Method Put -Headers $legacyHeaders -Body $body | Out-Null
+                } catch {
+                    Write-Host "::warning::legacy mirror failed for version.json -- $($_.Exception.Message)"
+                }
+            }
+        }
+    } catch {
+        if ((Get-HttpStatus $_) -eq 412) {
+            throw 'version.json changed while publishing (concurrent agent release). Re-run this workflow.'
+        }
+        throw
+    }
+}
+
+$tableSas = if ($TableSasToken) { $TableSasToken.TrimStart('?') } else { '' }
+if ($DryRun) {
+    Write-Host "  [dry-run] would set AdminConfiguration.LatestBootstrapV2ScriptVersion = $scriptVersion"
+} elseif ([string]::IsNullOrEmpty($tableSas) -or $tableSas -eq 'XXX') {
+    Write-Host 'SKIPPED: AdminConfiguration update -- set AZURE_TABLE_ADMIN_SAS_TOKEN to enable the portal version oracle'
+} else {
+    $tableHeaders = @{
+        'Content-Type' = 'application/json'
+        'Accept'       = 'application/json;odata=nometadata'
+        'If-Match'     = '*'
+    }
+    $tableBody = @{ LatestBootstrapV2ScriptVersion = $scriptVersion } | ConvertTo-Json
+    Invoke-RestMethod -Uri "$TableUrl`?$tableSas" -Method Merge -Headers $tableHeaders -Body $tableBody | Out-Null
+    Write-Host "AdminConfiguration.LatestBootstrapV2ScriptVersion = $scriptVersion"
+}
+
+# ------------------------------------------------------------------ 6. verify via alias
+if (-not $DryRun) {
+    $pending = [System.Collections.ArrayList]::new()
+    $publishSet | ForEach-Object { [void]$pending.Add($_) }
+
+    for ($attempt = 1; $attempt -le 6 -and $pending.Count -gt 0; $attempt++) {
+        if ($attempt -gt 1) { Start-Sleep -Seconds 20 }
+        foreach ($item in @($pending)) {
+            $servedBytes = Get-PublishedBytes "$AliasUrl/$($item.BlobName)"
+            if ($null -ne $servedBytes -and (Get-Sha256 $servedBytes) -eq $item.Sha256) {
+                Write-Host "  verified $($item.BlobName) via $AliasUrl"
+                $pending.Remove($item)
+            }
+        }
+        if ($pending.Count -gt 0) {
+            Write-Host "  attempt $attempt : $($pending.Count) blob(s) not current on the alias yet"
+        }
+    }
+
+    if ($pending.Count -gt 0) {
+        $names = ($pending | ForEach-Object { $_.BlobName }) -join ', '
+        throw ("Alias still serves stale content for: $names. The blobs were written, so this is a Front Door " +
+               'cache issue -- purge with: az afd endpoint purge --resource-group rg-autopilotmonitor-prd-gwc ' +
+               "--profile-name autopilotmonitor-fd --endpoint-name apm-download --content-paths '/agent/*'")
+    }
+}
+
+if ($env:GITHUB_STEP_SUMMARY) {
+    $mode = if ($DryRun) { 'DRY RUN -- nothing uploaded' } else { 'published + verified via the download alias' }
+    $summary = @(
+        "### Bootstrap scripts: $mode",
+        '',
+        "Bootstrap script version: **$scriptVersion**",
+        ''
+    ) + ($publishSet | ForEach-Object { "- $($_.BlobName) -- sha256 $($_.Sha256)" })
+    ($summary -join [Environment]::NewLine) | Out-File -FilePath $env:GITHUB_STEP_SUMMARY -Append -Encoding utf8
+}
+
+Write-Host 'Done.'
@@ -0,0 +1,63 @@
+name: Bootstrap script gates
+
+# Quality gate for the customer-facing PowerShell scripts, factored out so it exists
+# once and both callers run the identical checks:
+#   * pester.yml           -- pull requests (reports, does not block the merge button)
+#   * publish-scripts.yml  -- pushes to main, where it BLOCKS the upload to the
+#                             download alias. Devices execute these scripts as SYSTEM
+#                             during enrollment, so a red suite must never ship.
+
+on:
+  workflow_call:
+
+permissions:
+  contents: read
+
+jobs:
+  gates:
+    name: Bootstrap guard tests (PS 5.1)
+    runs-on: windows-latest
+    steps:
+      - uses: actions/checkout@v7
+
+      - name: Install Pester 5+
+        shell: powershell
+        run: |
+          Install-PackageProvider -Name NuGet -MinimumVersion 2.8.5.201 -Force -Scope CurrentUser | Out-Null
+          Install-Module Pester -Scope CurrentUser -Force -SkipPublisherCheck -MinimumVersion 5.5.0
+
+      # Windows PowerShell 5.1 on purpose: that is the runtime IME uses to execute
+      # platform scripts, so guard/relax logic is verified without resetting a device.
+      - name: Run Pester
+        shell: powershell
+        run: |
+          Import-Module Pester -MinimumVersion 5.5.0
+          $c = New-PesterConfiguration
+          $c.Run.Path = 'scripts/Bootstrap'
+          $c.Run.Exit = $true
+          $c.Output.Verbosity = 'Detailed'
+          Invoke-Pester -Configuration $c
+
+      - name: Guard scripts stay pure ASCII
+        shell: powershell
+        run: |
+          $failed = $false
+          Get-ChildItem 'scripts/Bootstrap' -Filter '*.ps1' | ForEach-Object {
+            $bytes = [System.IO.File]::ReadAllBytes($_.FullName)
+            for ($i = 0; $i -lt $bytes.Length; $i++) {
+              if ($bytes[$i] -gt 127) {
+                Write-Host "::error file=scripts/Bootstrap/$($_.Name)::Non-ASCII byte 0x$('{0:X2}' -f $bytes[$i]) at offset $i. PS 5.1 (IME) reads BOM-less files as ANSI and corrupts multi-byte chars."
+                $failed = $true
+                break
+              }
+            }
+          }
+          if ($failed) { exit 1 }
+          Write-Host 'All bootstrap scripts are pure ASCII.'
+
+      # The publish chain renders the -Dev variant by literal substitution and refuses to
+      # ship when an anchor moved. Running it dry here surfaces that (and any drift against
+      # the alias) on the PR instead of on the push that would have published.
+      - name: Publish dry run (dev-render anchors + version-bump guard + drift)
+        shell: pwsh
+        run: ./.github/scripts/Publish-BootstrapScripts.ps1 -DryRun
@@ -33,6 +33,13 @@ permissions:
  id-token: write      # keyless Sigstore signing (artifact attestation)
  attestations: write  # store the provenance attestation

+# Shared with publish-scripts.yml: both write version.json (this workflow the agent fields,
+# the script publisher bootstrapVersion under If-Match). Serialising them keeps a script push
+# from colliding with a release. Never cancel -- a half-published set is worse than a queue.
+concurrency:
+  group: agent-blob-publish
+  cancel-in-progress: false
+
 env:
  LINE_MAJOR: 2
  AGENT_PROJECT: src/Agent/AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2/AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.csproj
@@ -46,8 +53,6 @@ env:
  VERSIONED_ZIP: AutopilotMonitor-Agent-v2.zip
  STABLE_ZIP: AutopilotMonitor-Agent.zip
  STABLE_MANIFEST: version.json
-  STABLE_BOOTSTRAP: Install-AutopilotMonitor.ps1
-  STABLE_BOOTSTRAP_DEV: Install-AutopilotMonitor-Dev.ps1

 jobs:
  build:
@@ -181,6 +186,8 @@ jobs:
          # commit/buildUtc are the same two fields the backend and MCP manifests carry —
          # additive, and the bootstrap reads this file by field name, so older installers
          # ignore them. sha256/bootstrapVersion stay: those are the customer contract.
+          # bootstrapVersion is seeded here so the published manifest is never briefly
+          # missing it; Publish-BootstrapScripts.ps1 owns and re-asserts the field afterwards.
          $manifest | Add-Member -NotePropertyName "sha256" -NotePropertyValue $sha256Hash -Force
          $manifest | Add-Member -NotePropertyName "commit" -NotePropertyValue '${{ github.sha }}'.Substring(0, 7) -Force
          $manifest | Add-Member -NotePropertyName "buildUtc" -NotePropertyValue ([DateTime]::UtcNow.ToString('o')) -Force
@@ -190,29 +197,12 @@ jobs:
          $manifest | ConvertTo-Json -Compress | Set-Content $env:MANIFEST_NAME -Encoding UTF8
          Write-Host "$env:MANIFEST_NAME content: $(Get-Content $env:MANIFEST_NAME)"

-          # Bootstrap = single generic source. Stable variant = source 1:1.
-          # Dev variant = literal-string substitution of the two URL/manifest defaults.
-          # Both are uploaded only on -PublishAsStable runs (versioned namespace doesn't carry bootstrap).
-          if ('${{ inputs.publish_as_stable }}' -eq 'true') {
-            $stableUrl = '$AgentDownloadUrl = "https://download.autopilotmonitor.com/agent/AutopilotMonitor-Agent.zip"'
-            $devUrl    = '$AgentDownloadUrl = "https://download.autopilotmonitor.com/agent/AutopilotMonitor-Agent-dev.zip"'
-            $stableMan = '$VersionJsonName = "version.json"'
-            $devMan    = '$VersionJsonName = "version-dev.json"'
-
-            Copy-Item $env:BOOTSTRAP_SOURCE $env:STABLE_BOOTSTRAP -Force
-            $content = Get-Content $env:BOOTSTRAP_SOURCE -Raw
-            if ($content.IndexOf($stableUrl) -lt 0 -or $content.IndexOf($stableMan) -lt 0) {
-              Write-Error "Bootstrap dev-render: anchor literal missing in $env:BOOTSTRAP_SOURCE"
-              exit 1
-            }
-            $devContent = $content.Replace($stableUrl, $devUrl).Replace($stableMan, $devMan)
-            [System.IO.File]::WriteAllText("$env:STABLE_BOOTSTRAP_DEV", $devContent, (New-Object System.Text.UTF8Encoding $false))
-          }
+          # The customer-facing scripts (stable + dev render, test script, grant script) are
+          # published by .github/scripts/Publish-BootstrapScripts.ps1 -- see the upload step.

          "versioned_zip_release=$versionedZip" >> $env:GITHUB_OUTPUT
          "sha256=$sha256Hash" >> $env:GITHUB_OUTPUT
          "exe_sha256=$exeSha256Hash" >> $env:GITHUB_OUTPUT
-          "bootstrap_version=$bootstrapVersion" >> $env:GITHUB_OUTPUT

      - name: Upload to Azure Blob Storage
        if: inputs.upload_blob
@@ -264,22 +254,21 @@ jobs:
            Write-Host "PUBLISH AS STABLE -- writing V2 into stable namespace (customer-facing)" -ForegroundColor Magenta
            Send-Blob -Local $env:VERSIONED_ZIP -BlobName $env:STABLE_ZIP -ContentType "application/zip"
            Send-Blob -Local $env:MANIFEST_NAME -BlobName $env:STABLE_MANIFEST -ContentType "application/json"
-            Send-Blob -Local $env:STABLE_BOOTSTRAP -BlobName $env:STABLE_BOOTSTRAP -ContentType "text/plain; charset=utf-8"
-            Send-Blob -Local $env:STABLE_BOOTSTRAP_DEV -BlobName $env:STABLE_BOOTSTRAP_DEV -ContentType "text/plain; charset=utf-8"

-            if (Test-Path "scripts/Bootstrap/Test-ShouldBootstrapAgent.ps1") {
-              Send-Blob -Local "scripts/Bootstrap/Test-ShouldBootstrapAgent.ps1" -BlobName "Test-ShouldBootstrapAgent.ps1" -ContentType "text/plain; charset=utf-8"
-            }
-
-            # Customer-side Graph add-on grant script -- docs and admin UI link
-            # https://download.autopilotmonitor.com/agent/Grant-AutopilotMonitorAddOn.ps1
-            if (Test-Path "scripts/CustomerSetup/Grant-AutopilotMonitorAddOn.ps1") {
-              Send-Blob -Local "scripts/CustomerSetup/Grant-AutopilotMonitorAddOn.ps1" -BlobName "Grant-AutopilotMonitorAddOn.ps1" -ContentType "text/plain; charset=utf-8"
-            }
+            # Customer-facing scripts: same publisher publish-scripts.yml runs on every push
+            # to main, so a release lands a set that is consistent with what is already live
+            # (dev render, version-bump guard, bootstrapVersion oracles, alias verification).
+            # Runs AFTER version.json so its bootstrapVersion read sees this build's manifest.
+            ./.github/scripts/Publish-BootstrapScripts.ps1 `
+              -SasToken '${{ secrets.AZURE_BLOB_AGENT_SAS_TOKEN }}' `
+              -LegacySasToken '${{ secrets.AZURE_BLOB_AGENT_LEGACY_SAS_TOKEN }}' `
+              -TableSasToken '${{ secrets.AZURE_TABLE_ADMIN_SAS_TOKEN }}'
          }

          # Update AdminConfiguration LatestAgentV2* -- ONLY on stable cutover. The hash-oracle
          # must never point at a build that is not actually in the stable namespace.
+          # LatestBootstrapV2ScriptVersion is NOT set here: it belongs to the script publisher
+          # above, which also owns it on script-only pushes. One writer per field.
          $tableSasToken = "${{ secrets.AZURE_TABLE_ADMIN_SAS_TOKEN }}".TrimStart('?')
          if ('${{ inputs.publish_as_stable }}' -ne 'true') {
            Write-Host "SKIPPED: AdminConfiguration update (versioned-only run -- stable namespace unchanged)"
@@ -289,22 +278,18 @@ jobs:
            $sha256 = "${{ steps.artifact.outputs.sha256 }}"
            $exeSha256 = "${{ steps.artifact.outputs.exe_sha256 }}"
            $agentVersion = "${{ steps.version.outputs.version }}"
-            $bootstrapVersion = "${{ steps.artifact.outputs.bootstrap_version }}"
            $tableUrl = "https://autopilotmonitoreu.table.core.windows.net/AdminConfiguration(PartitionKey='GlobalConfig',RowKey='config')?$tableSasToken"
            $tableBody = @{
              LatestAgentV2Version    = $agentVersion
              LatestAgentV2Sha256     = $sha256
              LatestAgentV2ExeSha256  = $exeSha256
            }
-            if ($bootstrapVersion) {
-              $tableBody["LatestBootstrapV2ScriptVersion"] = $bootstrapVersion
-            }
            Invoke-RestMethod -Uri $tableUrl -Method Merge -Headers @{
              "Content-Type" = "application/json"
              "Accept"       = "application/json;odata=nometadata"
              "If-Match"     = "*"
            } -Body ($tableBody | ConvertTo-Json)
-            Write-Host "AdminConfiguration updated: V2 version=$agentVersion, sha256=$sha256, exeSha256=$exeSha256, bootstrapVersion=$bootstrapVersion"
+            Write-Host "AdminConfiguration updated: V2 version=$agentVersion, sha256=$sha256, exeSha256=$exeSha256"
          }

      # Sigstore keyless provenance: binds the ZIP digest to this workflow run (repo, ref,
@@ -0,0 +1,139 @@
+name: Build & Publish Bootstrap MSI
+
+# Thin MDM LOB delivery vehicle for WDP (Autopilot v2) — see
+# src/Agent/AutopilotMonitor.BootstrapMsi/Package.wxs. The MSI carries no bootstrap
+# logic (only the runner script that downloads the CURRENT server-hosted
+# Install-AutopilotMonitor.ps1), so it is rebuilt rarely: only when the runner script
+# or the WiX package changes. Version lives in Package.wxs — bump it there before
+# dispatching so Intune LOB update detection sees a new ProductVersion.
+
+on:
+  workflow_dispatch:
+    inputs:
+      upload_blob:
+        description: 'Upload to blob (customer-facing via download.autopilotmonitor.com/agent/)'
+        required: true
+        type: boolean
+        default: true
+
+permissions:
+  contents: read
+  id-token: write      # keyless Sigstore signing (artifact attestation)
+  attestations: write  # store the provenance attestation
+
+env:
+  MSI_PROJECT_DIR: src/Agent/AutopilotMonitor.BootstrapMsi
+  RUNNER_SCRIPT: src/Agent/AutopilotMonitor.BootstrapMsi/Invoke-BootstrapDownload.ps1
+  STABLE_MSI: AutopilotMonitor-Bootstrap.msi
+
+jobs:
+  build:
+    runs-on: windows-latest
+    name: Build Bootstrap MSI
+
+    steps:
+      - name: Checkout repository
+        uses: actions/checkout@v7
+
+      # The runner executes as SYSTEM on every enrolling device — a parse error or
+      # non-ASCII mojibake (PS 5.1 codepage roulette) must fail the build, not the fleet.
+      - name: Validate runner script (parse + ASCII-only)
+        shell: pwsh
+        run: |
+          $errs = $null
+          [System.Management.Automation.Language.Parser]::ParseFile((Resolve-Path $env:RUNNER_SCRIPT), [ref]$null, [ref]$errs) | Out-Null
+          if ($errs) { $errs | ForEach-Object { Write-Error $_.ToString() }; exit 1 }
+          if ((Get-Content $env:RUNNER_SCRIPT -Raw) -match '[^\x00-\x7F]') {
+            Write-Error "Runner script contains non-ASCII characters"
+            exit 1
+          }
+          Write-Host "Runner script parse + ASCII check passed"
+
+      - name: Read MSI version from Package.wxs
+        id: version
+        shell: pwsh
+        run: |
+          $wxs = Get-Content "$env:MSI_PROJECT_DIR/Package.wxs" -Raw
+          if ($wxs -notmatch 'Version="(\d+\.\d+\.\d+)"') {
+            Write-Error "Could not parse Version from Package.wxs"
+            exit 1
+          }
+          $version = $Matches[1]
+          Write-Host "MSI version (from Package.wxs): $version"
+          "version=$version" >> $env:GITHUB_OUTPUT
+
+      - name: Install WiX toolset
+        run: dotnet tool install --global wix --version "5.*"
+
+      - name: Build MSI
+        shell: pwsh
+        run: |
+          # wix resolves File/@Source relative to the working directory, not the wxs —
+          # build from inside the project dir (same as the local build documented in the wxs).
+          $out = Join-Path (Get-Location) $env:STABLE_MSI
+          Push-Location $env:MSI_PROJECT_DIR
+          wix build Package.wxs -arch x64 -o $out
+          Pop-Location
+          if (-not (Test-Path $env:STABLE_MSI)) { Write-Error "wix build produced no MSI"; exit 1 }
+          $sha256 = (Get-FileHash $env:STABLE_MSI -Algorithm SHA256).Hash.ToLowerInvariant()
+          Write-Host "Built $env:STABLE_MSI ($([math]::Round((Get-Item $env:STABLE_MSI).Length / 1KB)) KB)"
+          Write-Host "SHA-256: $sha256"
+
+      - name: Upload to Azure Blob Storage
+        if: inputs.upload_blob
+        shell: pwsh
+        run: |
+          $containerUrl = "https://autopilotmonitoreu.blob.core.windows.net/agent"
+          $sasToken = "${{ secrets.AZURE_BLOB_AGENT_SAS_TOKEN }}".TrimStart('?')
+          $version = "${{ steps.version.outputs.version }}"
+
+          # Same Send-Blob contract as build-agent.yml: no-cache on every blob because the
+          # stable name rotates in place behind the download alias. No legacy mirror — the
+          # MSI channel never existed on the legacy account.
+          function Send-Blob {
+            param([string]$Local, [string]$BlobName)
+            $bytes = [System.IO.File]::ReadAllBytes($Local)
+            $headers = @{
+              "x-ms-blob-type" = "BlockBlob"
+              "Content-Type" = "application/octet-stream"
+              "x-ms-blob-cache-control" = "no-cache"
+            }
+            $md5 = [System.Security.Cryptography.MD5]::Create()
+            $headers["Content-MD5"] = [Convert]::ToBase64String($md5.ComputeHash($bytes))
+            $md5.Dispose()
+            Write-Host "Uploading $BlobName ($([math]::Round($bytes.Length / 1KB)) KB)..."
+            Invoke-RestMethod -Uri "$containerUrl/$BlobName`?$sasToken" -Method Put -Headers $headers -Body $bytes
+            Write-Host "  uploaded $BlobName"
+          }
+
+          # Versioned copy for provenance/rollback + stable customer-facing name.
+          Send-Blob -Local $env:STABLE_MSI -BlobName "AutopilotMonitor-Bootstrap-v$version.msi"
+          Send-Blob -Local $env:STABLE_MSI -BlobName $env:STABLE_MSI
+
+      # E2E: the Front Door route /agent/* must serve the fresh bytes on the public alias.
+      - name: Verify download alias serves the MSI
+        if: inputs.upload_blob
+        shell: pwsh
+        run: |
+          $localSize = (Get-Item $env:STABLE_MSI).Length
+          $resp = Invoke-WebRequest -Uri "https://download.autopilotmonitor.com/agent/$env:STABLE_MSI" -Method Head -UseBasicParsing
+          if ($resp.StatusCode -ne 200) { Write-Error "Alias HEAD returned $($resp.StatusCode)"; exit 1 }
+          $remoteSize = [long]$resp.Headers['Content-Length'][0]
+          if ($remoteSize -ne $localSize) {
+            Write-Error "Size mismatch: alias serves $remoteSize bytes, local MSI is $localSize bytes"
+            exit 1
+          }
+          Write-Host "Alias verified: https://download.autopilotmonitor.com/agent/$env:STABLE_MSI ($remoteSize bytes)"
+
+      # Sigstore keyless provenance, same as the agent ZIP. Verify:
+      # gh attestation verify AutopilotMonitor-Bootstrap.msi --repo okieselbach/AutopilotMonitor
+      - name: Attest build provenance (MSI)
+        uses: actions/attest-build-provenance@v4
+        with:
+          subject-path: ${{ env.STABLE_MSI }}
+
+      - name: Upload build artifact
+        uses: actions/upload-artifact@v7
+        with:
+          name: AutopilotMonitor-Bootstrap-v${{ steps.version.outputs.version }}
+          path: ${{ env.STABLE_MSI }}
@@ -1,16 +1,20 @@
 name: Pester (Bootstrap scripts)

-# Runs the Pester suite for the Intune bootstrap scripts under Windows PowerShell 5.1
-# (the runtime IME uses to execute platform scripts) so guard/relax logic changes are
-# verified without resetting a device. Like ci.yml it reports rather than blocks.
+# Pull-request view of the bootstrap script gates. Like ci.yml it reports rather than
+# blocks the merge button.
+#
+# There is deliberately no push trigger: publish-scripts.yml runs the very same
+# reusable gate workflow on every push to main and blocks the upload to the download
+# alias on it. A push trigger here would only duplicate that run, with no consequence.

 on:
-  push:
-    branches: [main]
-    paths: ['scripts/Bootstrap/**']
  pull_request:
    branches: [main]
-    paths: ['scripts/Bootstrap/**']
+    paths:
+      - 'scripts/Bootstrap/**'
+      - 'scripts/CustomerSetup/**'
+      - '.github/scripts/Publish-BootstrapScripts.ps1'
+      - '.github/workflows/bootstrap-script-gates.yml'
  workflow_dispatch:

 permissions:
@@ -21,41 +25,5 @@ concurrency:
  cancel-in-progress: true

 jobs:
-  pester:
-    name: Bootstrap guard tests (PS 5.1)
-    runs-on: windows-latest
-    steps:
-      - uses: actions/checkout@v7
-
-      - name: Install Pester 5+
-        shell: powershell
-        run: |
-          Install-PackageProvider -Name NuGet -MinimumVersion 2.8.5.201 -Force -Scope CurrentUser | Out-Null
-          Install-Module Pester -Scope CurrentUser -Force -SkipPublisherCheck -MinimumVersion 5.5.0
-
-      - name: Run Pester
-        shell: powershell
-        run: |
-          Import-Module Pester -MinimumVersion 5.5.0
-          $c = New-PesterConfiguration
-          $c.Run.Path = 'scripts/Bootstrap'
-          $c.Run.Exit = $true
-          $c.Output.Verbosity = 'Detailed'
-          Invoke-Pester -Configuration $c
-
-      - name: Guard scripts stay pure ASCII
-        shell: powershell
-        run: |
-          $failed = $false
-          Get-ChildItem 'scripts/Bootstrap' -Filter '*.ps1' | ForEach-Object {
-            $bytes = [System.IO.File]::ReadAllBytes($_.FullName)
-            for ($i = 0; $i -lt $bytes.Length; $i++) {
-              if ($bytes[$i] -gt 127) {
-                Write-Host "::error file=scripts/Bootstrap/$($_.Name)::Non-ASCII byte 0x$('{0:X2}' -f $bytes[$i]) at offset $i. PS 5.1 (IME) reads BOM-less files as ANSI and corrupts multi-byte chars."
-                $failed = $true
-                break
-              }
-            }
-          }
-          if ($failed) { exit 1 }
-          Write-Host 'All bootstrap scripts are pure ASCII.'
+  gates:
+    uses: ./.github/workflows/bootstrap-script-gates.yml
@@ -0,0 +1,56 @@
+name: Publish customer scripts
+
+# Keeps the scripts behind download.autopilotmonitor.com/agent/ current WITHOUT waiting
+# for an agent release. Before this workflow existed, the script blobs rotated only on a
+# publish_as_stable run of build-agent.yml, so a bootstrap fix sat unpublished until the
+# next agent cutover -- while the WDP bootstrap MSI downloads the published copy on every
+# enrolling device.
+#
+# Same publish code as the release path (.github/scripts/Publish-BootstrapScripts.ps1);
+# this workflow only supplies a second trigger for it.
+
+on:
+  push:
+    branches: [main]
+    paths:
+      - 'scripts/Bootstrap/**'
+      - 'scripts/CustomerSetup/**'
+      - '.github/scripts/Publish-BootstrapScripts.ps1'
+  workflow_dispatch:
+    inputs:
+      dry_run:
+        description: 'Run every check and report drift, upload nothing'
+        required: true
+        type: boolean
+        default: false
+
+permissions:
+  contents: read
+
+# Shared with build-agent.yml: a script publish and an agent release both touch
+# version.json, and the bootstrapVersion read-modify-write must not interleave with the
+# release writing its agent fields. Never cancel -- a half-published set is worse than a queue.
+concurrency:
+  group: agent-blob-publish
+  cancel-in-progress: false
+
+jobs:
+  gates:
+    uses: ./.github/workflows/bootstrap-script-gates.yml
+
+  publish:
+    name: Publish to the download alias
+    needs: gates
+    runs-on: windows-latest
+    steps:
+      - uses: actions/checkout@v7
+
+      - name: Publish bootstrap + customer scripts
+        shell: pwsh
+        run: |
+          $dryRun = '${{ inputs.dry_run }}' -eq 'true'
+          ./.github/scripts/Publish-BootstrapScripts.ps1 `
+            -SasToken '${{ secrets.AZURE_BLOB_AGENT_SAS_TOKEN }}' `
+            -LegacySasToken '${{ secrets.AZURE_BLOB_AGENT_LEGACY_SAS_TOKEN }}' `
+            -TableSasToken '${{ secrets.AZURE_TABLE_ADMIN_SAS_TOKEN }}' `
+            -DryRun:$dryRun
@@ -158,3 +158,9 @@ docs/~$Introduction-AutopilotMonitor.pptx
 # Web build stamp: generated by scripts/generate-version.js on every build (buildUtc
 # changes each run) and served at /version.json from the static export.
 src/Web/autopilot-monitor-web/public/version.json
+
+
+# Local IME binaries scratch used by the /ime-decompile skill (MSI + msiexec-
+# extracted payload per version, for grepping in binaries). Decompilates live in
+# the private ime-decompiles repo, MSIs in the ime-archive blob - this stays local.
+ime-files/
@@ -44,7 +44,7 @@ tenant-config report.

 `RemoteConfigMerger` projects the bool onto a runtime path (same pattern as
 `EnableImeMatchLog`): `true` → `Constants.GatherRuleDebugLogPath` =
-`%ProgramData%\AutopilotMonitor\Logs\gather_rules_debug.log`; `false` → null, unless a
+`%ProgramData%\AutopilotMonitor\Logs\gather-rules-debug.log`; `false` → null, unless a
 `--gather-debug-log <path>` CLI override supplied a non-default path. The field is not
 security-sensitive and deliberately **survives the offline config cache**.

@@ -53,7 +53,7 @@ every line; the spool fsyncs only items flagged `RequiresImmediateFlush`.
 | Event sequence | `State\event-sequence.json` | `{ LastAssignedSequence }` | atomic | none; survives WhiteGlove Part-2 resume |
 | Spool | `Spool\spool.jsonl` | JSONL (`TelemetryItem`/line) | only `RequiresImmediateFlush` items | none — never truncated, cursor skips uploaded items |
 | Upload cursor | `Spool\upload-cursor.json` | `{ LastUploadedItemId }` | atomic | idempotent, never regresses |
-| Agent trace log | `Logs\agent_YYYYMMDD[_NNN].log` | text `[utc] [LEVEL] msg` | no | 50 MB → suffix rotation; consumed by `/diag-agent-log` |
+| Agent trace log | `Logs\agent.log` (segments `agent-NNN.log`) | text `[utc] [LEVEL] msg` | no | 50 MB → suffix rotation; consumed by `/diag-agent-log` |
 | Crash dump + record | `Crashes\<stem>.dmp` + `.json` | MiniDump + JSON | n/a (process dying) | 5 files / 7 days |
 | Startup-event gate | `State\startup-event-state.json` | JSON dict | no (atomic) | cross-reboot dedup of one-shot probes |
 | Bandwidth state | `State\bandwidth-state.json` | JSON samples/counters | no (atomic) | reboot-survivor for the DO bandwidth estimate |
@@ -146,7 +146,7 @@ snapshots) are executed by the `EffectRunner` — the reducer itself is pure. De
 | `\Agent\` | deployed binaries |
 | `\State\` | decision persistence (SignalLog, Journal, Snapshot), `enrollment-complete.marker`, `final-status.json`, self-update state, `.quarantine/`, `.part1-<ts>/` |
 | `\Spool\` | telemetry spool (offline queue) |
-| `\Logs\` | agent trace log, `crash_*.log`, `ime_pattern_matches.log` |
+| `\Logs\` | agent trace log (`agent.log`), `crash-*.log`, `ime-pattern-matches.log` |
 | `\Config\` | `remote-config.json` cache |
 | `\Agent-Update\`, `\Updates\` | self-update staging/download |

@@ -0,0 +1,200 @@
+---
+type: Concept
+title: ESP Completion Starvation — the sits-d Cloud-PC complex
+description: Why five Windows 365 Cloud PCs finished enrolling but never completed in the product — a SkipUser=true flow produces none of the signals every completion-gate evaluation site hangs off — plus the two adjacent defects fixed alongside (edge-only user-apps-settled synthesis, orphaned Hello-wizard restart replay) and what a Shell-Core replay deliberately does not do.
+resource: /src/Agent/AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Core/Monitoring/Enrollment/SystemSignals
+tags:
+  - agent
+  - esp
+  - completion
+  - skip-user
+  - reboot
+  - recovery
+timestamp: 2026-08-20T00:00:00+02:00
+---
+
+# ESP Completion Starvation — the sits-d Cloud-PC complex
+
+Seven Windows 365 Cloud PCs, same tenant, first sign-in the same morning. Two sessions
+succeeded within minutes; five sat at `Completion is waiting on: hello_resolution` from
+second five onward and ran into the six-hour max-lifetime watchdog — verdict `Incomplete`
+on devices whose users were working normally the whole time.
+
+The first diagnosis blamed the mid-ESP reboot (DeviceGuard/DmaGuard, see
+[MDM Reboot Coalescing](mdm-reboot-coalescing.md)): the agent is killed in
+`Stage=EspAccountSetup` and, so the theory went, loses the Shell-Core ESP exit to the
+downtime. The evidence disproved it. `8110e262` ran **six hours uninterrupted** after its
+last reboot with the Shell-Core watcher armed — and Windows never wrote a 62407 in all
+that time, because on these machines **the user ESP page never existed**.
+
+# Schema
+
+## The actual defect — a satisfied gate nobody evaluates
+
+The five stuck machines carried `SkipUserStatusPage=True` in the enrollment `FirstSync`
+key (read 10+ times across three agent processes, `True` on every read — not a stale
+single read). Windows honours it: no user ESP page, hence
+
+* no Shell-Core 62407 (`esp_exiting`) — the page that would exit does not exist,
+* no `AccountSetupCategory` provisioning registry — nothing writes categories for a page
+  that never renders,
+* desktop within seconds of sign-in.
+
+The reducer is *built* for this flow: **arm B** of `ShouldTransitionToAwaitingHello`
+(`SkipUserEsp == true`) declares the gate open, and the missing-prerequisites bookkeeping
+already exempts the AccountSetup gate — which is why the sessions reported only
+`hello_resolution` as missing. But the gate is a predicate, not a process. Something has
+to evaluate it, and every evaluation site hangs off a signal a skip-user flow structurally
+cannot produce:
+
+| Evaluation site | Carrier signal | On SkipUser=true |
+|---|---|---|
+| `HandleEspExitingV1` | Shell-Core 62407 | never fires |
+| `HandleEspPhaseChangedV1(FinalizingSetup)` | Shell-Core 62407 via coordinator | never fires |
+| `HandleDesktopArrivedV1` fast-path | requires Hello policy **disabled** | Hello was enabled |
+| `HandleImeUserSessionCompletedV1` arm-C attempt | requires the recorded final exit | unsatisfiable |
+
+No knock, no promotion, no `HelloSafety` — and the `AdvisoryCompletion` backstop is armed
+exclusively from an `EspExiting` signal, so it never armed either. The session idles to
+the watchdog with an open gate.
+
+## The fix — the observed skip is the exit evidence
+
+`HandleImeUserSessionCompletedV1`'s completion attempt now accepts the observed skip in
+place of the final exit (`skipUserExitEquivalent`): on a flow where no page exists, no
+exit can ever say more than the `FirstSync` read already did. Everything else stays
+mandatory — AccountSetup anchor, genuine (at-or-after-anchor) IME user-session completion,
+DAD-validated real-user desktop — which makes this knock **stricter** than the existing
+Shell-Core-carried arm-B promotion (pinned in `ClassicAwaitingHelloGuardTests`, which
+requires no IME or desktop evidence at all). Hello semantics ride the existing rails:
+enabled-or-unknown promotes to `AwaitingHello` with `HelloSafety` armed (on Cloud PCs
+reached via RDP the Hello wizard never appears, so the synthetic timeout resolves the
+wait), disabled completes directly with the synthetic `Skipped` outcome.
+
+The knock deliberately lives on the IME user-session edge, not on desktop arrival:
+
+* **Ordering-robust against Fix 10.** An `EspPhaseChanged(AccountSetup)` arriving on
+  `AwaitingHello` bounces the stage back and cancels `HelloSafety` (the premature-promotion
+  guard). The IME AccountSetup phase line lands *after* the desktop on this flow, so a
+  desktop-side knock would be undone two signals later. The IME phase line always precedes
+  the user-session-complete line in log order, so a bounced promotion is re-knocked by the
+  very next re-emission — including the restart re-parse.
+* **Right semantics.** The IME user session completes when the required-app processing is
+  done; a desktop-side knock would mark the session `Succeeded` mid-installation.
+* Device Preparation is excluded — WDP keeps its Hello+Desktop conjunction and the
+  `DevicePrepCompletion` backstop.
+
+`ClassicSkipUserEspUserSessionCompletionTests` replays the real `8110e262` signal ordering
+end to end (bootstrap `EspConfigDetected` → Hello enabled → desktop → AccountSetup anchor →
+IME completion → HelloSafety → `enrollment_complete`), including the Fix-10
+bounce-then-re-knock cycle, and pins the negative space (no skip observed / no desktop /
+ghost pre-anchor IME completion / WDP).
+
+Why five of seven identically administered Cloud PCs carried `SkipUserStatusPage=True` is
+a tenant-side question (ESP profile assignment state at each machine's provisioning
+moment); the value did not change during any observed session, and machine age does not
+cleanly explain the split. The agent's job is to complete the flow Windows actually ran —
+which it now does.
+
+## Adjacent defect — the synthesis was edge-triggered
+
+This one is real but belongs to the `SkipUser=false` flow (the two sessions that
+succeeded). The user-apps-settled synthesis
+(`MaybeSynthesizeAccountSetupCompleteFromSettledUserApps`, session `caa6cf50`) ran **only**
+from `OnEspExited`. On a tenant with ~138 required apps the ESP page exits while apps are
+still in flight: the single attempt misses and nothing ever re-checks, even when every
+tracked app reaches a terminal state minutes later.
+
+The ESP exit is an **edge** (happens once); settled user-ESP apps are a **level** (reached
+later). `EspAndHelloTracker` records the edge in `_espExitObserved` and exposes
+`ReevaluateUserAppsSettledSynthesis()`, chained into `ImeLogTracker.OnAppStateChanged` and
+into the post-restore `onStateRestored` callback (a live exit observed before the IME
+state restore completes would otherwise never get a second look). Gate conditions are
+unchanged — no new completion path, only a second opportunity for the existing one. Only a
+**live, confirmed post-AccountSetup** exit may be remembered
+(`IsConfirmedPostAccountSetupExit`, stricter than the `IsIntermediateDeviceEspExit`
+forward guard: unknown counts as not confirmed).
+
+## Adjacent defect — the restart replay was never wired up
+
+`ShellCoreTracker`'s backfill had existed since session `772fe502` with **no caller**; the
+Shell-Core `EventLogWatcher` only delivers records written after `Start()`.
+`EspAndHelloHost.Start()` now calls it as `BackfillRecentHelloWizardStart` — which is
+exactly what it does and all it does:
+
+| Record | Replayed | Why |
+|---|---|---|
+| 62404 Hello-wizard start | **yes** | Conservative: vetoes a premature "Hello is disabled" skip, can never complete a session by itself. The observation `772fe502` was about. |
+| 62407 ESP exit | **no** | Cannot be placed in time — see below. |
+| 62407 ESP failure | **no** | Re-injecting a historic failure as fresh can fail a session that recovered on retry (`ANALYZE-ESP-006`). |
+
+A replayed exit is unusable, and every candidate ordering mechanism fails independently:
+
+1. Windows writes the **identical** description `CommercialOOBE_ESPProgress_Page_Exiting`
+   for the intermediate DeviceSetup→AccountSetup transition and the final exit.
+2. Every post-hoc ordering probe (AccountSetup registry, settled-apps) reads state as it
+   is **now**, not as it was at the event's time.
+3. The reducer orders exits by **ingest ordinal**, not timestamp
+   (`IsPostAccountSetupFinalExit`) — a historic exit replayed today gets a fresher ordinal
+   than reality and reads as post-AccountSetup by construction.
+4. `HandleEspExitingV1` passes `espFinalExitInFlight: true` for every arriving exit; with
+   restored state, arm C would open on a historic intermediate exit.
+
+`ClassicEspExitingOnRestoredStateTests` pins that the reducer *does* open on any arriving
+exit; `ShellCoreTrackerReplayScopeTests` pins that the replay never produces one. Skipped
+62407 records are counted and reported once as an `agent_trace`
+(`reason: replayed_62407_not_orderable`) — silently dropping evidence is how this class of
+bug survives.
+
+**Residual gap, named honestly:** a `SkipUser=false` session whose final exit falls
+exactly into an agent downtime *and* whose AccountSetup category never resolves
+(`1ec8f4c6` shape) still has no completion carrier after the restart. The normal case is
+covered — `ProvisioningStatusTracker` reads the current registry at startup, so a
+category that resolved during the downtime fires arm A. The residual shape is rare,
+surfaced by `ANALYZE-ESP-005` via the `session_stalled` interim trigger, and deliberately
+not patched with a replay that cannot be ordered.
+
+### Sizing the replay window
+
+A constant is provably wrong: the scheduled task has a `BootTrigger` only
+(`Program.InstallMode.BuildScheduledTaskXml`) — after an `exception_crash` the agent does
+not return until the next boot. `ResolveEspExitBackfillLookbackMinutes` reaches back to
+the last moment the previous run is known to have been alive (max of `snapshot.json`
+mtime and `LastBootUtc` for kill-type exits), floored at 5 minutes, capped at 360, off on
+`first_run`, and immune to cross-reboot clock skew (a future timestamp is ignored).
+
+# Examples
+
+Tenant `sits-d.cloud`, 2026-08-19, seven Windows 365 Cloud PCs, first sign-ins the same
+morning. The discriminator is a single registry value:
+
+| Session | SkipUser | `esp_exiting` | AccountSetup registry | Reboots | Outcome |
+|---|---|---|---|---|---|
+| `08fc6bda` | False | yes | yes | 0 | Succeeded (10 min) |
+| `3b9291aa` | False | yes | yes | 0 | Succeeded (2.1 h) |
+| `8110e262` | True | — | — | 2 | Incomplete (6 h watchdog) |
+| `a89aac2d` | True | — | — | 1 | Incomplete |
+| `e7ba63c9` | True | — | — | 1 | Incomplete |
+| `cb4a485a` | True | — | — | 2 | Incomplete |
+| `3d6278fb` | True | — | — | 1 | Incomplete |
+
+The reboot correlation was a red herring: `8110e262` ran six hours live after its final
+reboot and would have seen every signal. `8110e262` and `a89aac2d` both reached
+`138/138 completed, 0 failed` and a genuine IME user-session completion — with the fix,
+all five complete a few minutes after their IME user session settles.
+
+`08fc6bda` exercises the edge-level fix on the same day: ESP page exited normally while
+`categorySucceeded` never confirmed — completed via the user-apps-settled synthesis.
+`3b9291aa` shows the independent starvation visibility gap: 99 `app_install_starved`
+events on a session recorded as `Succeeded` — surfaced from now on by `ANALYZE-APP-016`.
+
+# Citations
+
+* `src/Shared/AutopilotMonitor.DecisionCore/Engine/DecisionEngine.Classic.cs` — `HandleImeUserSessionCompletedV1`, `skipUserExitEquivalent`
+* `src/Shared/AutopilotMonitor.DecisionCore/Engine/DecisionEngine.Shared.cs` — `ShouldTransitionToAwaitingHello` (arm B)
+* `src/Agent/AutopilotMonitor.DecisionCore.Tests/ClassicSkipUserEspUserSessionCompletionTests.cs` — end-to-end replay of the 8110e262 ordering
+* `src/Agent/AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Core/Monitoring/Enrollment/SystemSignals/ShellCoreTracker.cs` — `BackfillRecentHelloWizardStart`, `ReplayBackfillRecords`
+* `src/Agent/AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Core/Monitoring/Enrollment/SystemSignals/EspAndHelloTracker.cs` — `_espExitObserved`, `ReevaluateUserAppsSettledSynthesis`
+* `src/Agent/AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Core/Orchestration/DefaultComponentFactory.cs` — lookback sizing, `OnAppStateChanged` chaining
+* [MDM Reboot Coalescing](mdm-reboot-coalescing.md) — the policy attribution for the reboots themselves
+* [Decision Engine](decision-engine.md) — the AccountSetup gate and completion arms
@@ -0,0 +1,89 @@
+---
+type: concept
+title: Registry App-State Second Pillar
+description: Why the agent reads IME's authoritative per-app state straight from the registry (Win32Apps / EspTrackingWin32Apps / StatusServiceReports), how the snapshot-and-diff observer works, and how registry/log reconciliation doubles as the built-in IME log-pattern drift alarm.
+resource: agent
+tags: [ime, registry, win32apps, observability, reconciliation, pattern-drift, wdp]
+timestamp: 2026-08-18
+---
+
+# Schema
+
+## Why a second pillar
+
+The 2026-08-17 audit of the decompiled IME (1.97.107 / 1.104.102) proved that IME log
+wording is an unstable contract: Microsoft removed the old V1/V2 processing pipeline
+(killing 9 patterns silently), reworded the post-remediation line, changed the
+report-delta quoting between 1.97 and 1.104, and deleted `[DO TEL]` entirely. The
+registry, by contrast, is IME's *internal product contract* — the ESP page and Intune
+reporting consume it — and cannot drift casually.
+
+Architecture decision (Oliver, 2026-08-17): **hybrid**. Logs stay the narrative
+(downloads, retries, exit codes, scripts — the timeline). The registry is the stable
+truth for terminal state. Divergence between the two IS the alarm that log patterns
+drifted — turning silent data loss into a Warning event.
+
+## Observed surfaces
+
+All under `HKLM\SOFTWARE\Microsoft\IntuneManagementExtension` (64-bit view), verified
+against decompiled IME source:
+
+| Surface | Content |
+|---|---|
+| `Win32Apps\<userGuid>\<appGuid>_<rev>` | `EnforcementStateMessage` JSON (EnforcementState + ErrorCode), `ExitCode`, `Intent`. Device context = `Guid.Empty` user. Non-GUID subkeys (GRS, OperationalState, Reporting, ProvisioningProgress) are skipped. |
+| `EspTrackingWin32Apps\<userGuid>\<appGuid>_<rev>` | Which apps IME registered for ESP tracking, `EspTrackingWin32AppPhase`. |
+| `SideCarPolicies\StatusServiceReports\<userGuid>\<appId>` | The `AppInstallStatusReport` the ESP page renders (`Status`: 1000=Installed, 1001=Installing, 3000=Failed, 2000er=NotApplicable). |
+
+## Mechanism
+
+`ImeRegistryAppStateObserver` + `ImeRegistryAppStateHost` (always-on, no config gate —
+precedent `EspPolicyProviderStallHost`):
+
+- **One recursive `RegistryWatcher`** on the IME root covers all three surfaces;
+  changes are debounced (2 s trailing edge) into a tick. A 60-s periodic tick is both
+  the reconciliation-settle evaluator and the poll-only fallback when the watcher
+  fails to arm (`collector_degraded`, once).
+- **Snapshot-and-diff**: `RegNotifyChangeKeyValue` gives coalesced key-scope edges
+  only, so every tick re-reads the surfaces and diffs against the previous snapshot.
+- **Silent baseline**: the state present at agent start is captured without events.
+  Win32Apps keys survive re-enrollments — replaying them would be the registry twin
+  of the historic-IME-replay bug. Only apps that *change during the session* are
+  reported or judged.
+- **`registry_app_state`** (Info): emitted per real field change
+  (enforcementState/errorCode/exitCode/statusServiceStatus/espTracked/espPhase),
+  capped at 200/session (cap announced once as Warning).
+- **`app_state_reconciliation`** (Warning, once per app, immediate upload): after a
+  changed entry has been terminal (EnforcementState 1000er=success / 5000er=error,
+  or StatusService 1000er/3000) for ≥ 90 s, its outcome is compared against the
+  log-derived `AppPackageState` from `ImeLogHost.AllKnownPackageStates`. Divergence
+  reasons: `registry_error_log_installed`, `registry_success_log_error`,
+  `app_unknown_to_log_tracking` (only when the tracker is actively tracking apps —
+  an idle tracker is not judgeable).
+- **Pure observability**: nothing feeds the DecisionEngine (same rule as
+  oobe-state observability).
+
+## WDP reuse (Paket 3)
+
+The same host archetype (RegistryWatcher subtree + debounce + snapshot-diff) is the
+intended vehicle for WDP live progress: watch
+`HKLM\SOFTWARE\Microsoft\Provisioning\AutopilotSettings\DevicePreparation\BootstrapperAgent`
+(`ProgressUpdates` rows, `ResumeContext.ProvisioningResult` terminal marker) with the
+RealmJoinWatcher appearance-watcher pattern for not-yet-existing keys, plus an
+Event-142 channel watcher (`Microsoft-Autopilot-BootstrapperAgent/BootstrapperAgentServiceLogProvider`,
+channel handling precedent in `DiagnosticsPackageService`). Win32Apps keys are written
+on WDP devices too — the pillar works on both rails unchanged.
+
+# Examples
+
+Timeline evidence of a drifted pattern set: apps install fine (registry says
+EnforcementState 1000) but the timeline shows no `app_install_completed` — each app
+raises one `app_state_reconciliation` with `reason=app_unknown_to_log_tracking`.
+Operator response: run `/ime-pattern-validate` against the session, fix patterns,
+backend-deploy (no agent release needed for pattern fixes).
+
+# Citations
+
+- `src/Agent/AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Core/Monitoring/Enrollment/SystemSignals/ImeRegistryAppStateObserver.cs`
+- `src/Agent/AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Core/Orchestration/Hosts/ImeRegistryAppStateHost.cs`
+- `tasks/ime-v1-code-audit-2026-08-17.md` (decompiled-source audit; registry surface catalog)
+- Decompile archive: `okieselbach/ime-decompiles` (private), `C:\Code\GitHubRepos\ime-decompiles\<version>\decompiled`
@@ -0,0 +1,108 @@
+---
+type: concept
+title: WDP Scenario Gates & Completion Backstop
+description: How the agent gates Autopilot/ESP-only machinery off on Windows Device Preparation (WDP) sessions and how a WDP session resolves without any ESP signal.
+resource: agent
+tags: [wdp, device-preparation, decision-engine, collectors, completion]
+timestamp: 2026-08-18
+---
+
+# Schema
+
+Windows Device Preparation (Autopilot v2, "WDP") has **no deployment profile and no ESP**.
+Before the afee7ae0 audit (2026-08-18) the agent ran the full Classic apparatus anyway:
+misleading `autopilot_profile_missing` warnings, a ZTD event-log query + HTTP probe,
+`esp_config_detected` "unknown/unknown" noise, an Autopilot-channel noise flood
+(EventIDs 100/417/418/1005, 900+ occurrences per session), a subtree registry watcher
+woken by every WDP progress write, and — worst — no completion path when Hello never
+resolved (park until the 360-min watchdog).
+
+## Detection: deterministic vs. fallback
+
+`EnrollmentRegistryDetector` classifies v2 through three rules. Only the first is
+**deterministic WDP**:
+
+1. `AutopilotSettings\DevicePreparation\BootstrapperAgent` subkey with non-empty
+   `ExecutionContext` → the WDP policy orchestration tree, present before the agent
+   starts. Exposed as `EnrollmentRegistryDetector.IsDeterministicDevicePreparation()`
+   and the `DevicePreparationExecutionContextRule` constant.
+2./3. `CloudAssignedDeviceRegistration == 2` / `CloudAssignedEspEnabled == 0` —
+   profile-derived legacy signals. They imply a REAL Autopilot profile (just ESP-less),
+   so every gate below deliberately ignores them: **gates require the deterministic
+   marker and fail toward Classic behavior.**
+
+## Agent-side gates (all keyed to the deterministic marker)
+
+* `DeviceInfoCollector.CollectAutopilotProfile`: no `autopilot_profile` event, no
+  `autopilot_profile_missing` warning, no ZTD event-log query, no ZTD HTTP probe.
+  `enrollment_type_detected` still fires. (WDP devices DO carry an
+  `AutopilotPolicyCache` with `ProfileAvailable=0` / error 807 `ZtdDeviceIsNotRegistered`
+  — Windows runs the ZTD download regardless — so the probe fired for real before.)
+* `CollectEspConfigurationLocked`: `esp_config_detected` is emitted only when at least
+  one FirstSync value or ESP tracking list exists (generic null-gate, mirrors the
+  orchestrator bootstrap's signal gate) — fixes "unknown/unknown" for WDP AND plain
+  Entra joins.
+* `DefaultComponentFactory`: `EspPolicyProviderStallHost` (60-s poll of the ESP-only
+  `EnrollmentStatusTracking` key) is not created on WDP.
+* `EspAndHelloTracker.Start`: `ProvisioningStatusTracker` is not started on WDP — its
+  subtree watcher sits on `AutopilotSettings`, exactly where WDP's BootstrapperAgent
+  writes progress, so it woke on every write only to read three ESP category values
+  that never exist there.
+* `ModernDeploymentTracker`: `DevicePreparationNoiseEventIds` {100, 417, 418, 1005}
+  are suppressed entirely on WDP (before `FormatDescription()`); Critical (level 1)
+  always passes; genuine WDP diagnostics (e.g. 408) keep flowing. The Autopilot error
+  backfill (807/809/815/908 replay) is skipped — 807 is the EXPECTED state on WDP.
+  The watcher itself stays on: WDP's provisioning stack logs into the same channels.
+* `StallProbeCollector`: skips the ESP category registry scan on WDP and unions the
+  noise IDs into its harmless set; the channel scans remain (they carry genuine WDP
+  diagnostics during a stall).
+* `EnrollmentTerminationHandler`: the `app_install_starved` terminal sweep is skipped
+  on WDP — post-desktop installs are the DESIGNED order there (only DPP-policy apps
+  run during provisioning); per-app data still travels via `app_tracking_summary` and
+  final-status.json.
+
+## DecisionCore: WDP completion without ESP facts
+
+* **Seeding**: `EnrollmentFactsObserved` carries `enrollmentTypeDeterministic`;
+  the deterministic marker seeds `DevicePreparation` at **High** confidence (same
+  registry-determinism standard as the self-deploying OobeConfig bits), the fallback
+  rules stay Medium. The three explicit downgrade guards from d0ab3eee remain as
+  defence in depth.
+* **Arm D** (`ShouldTransitionToAwaitingHello`): on WDP the DAD-validated real-user
+  desktop is a legitimate promotion basis — arms A–C are unsatisfiable by construction
+  (no provisioning categories, no Shell-Core 62407 final exit). With a disabled Hello
+  policy the fast-path now completes at desktop arrival.
+* **Prerequisites**: `completion_waiting` never lists
+  `account_setup_provisioning_complete` on WDP (unsatisfiable; mirrors the
+  `skipUserEsp` exemption).
+* **Backstop**: `DeadlineNames.DevicePrepCompletion` (30 min, replay-safe base) is
+  armed by `HandleDesktopArrivedV1` when a WDP session parks desktop-first with Hello
+  pending. On fire it mirrors the HelloSafety timeout: synthetic
+  `HelloOutcome=Timeout` + completion through Finalizing. This closes the
+  "no Hello → park until watchdog" hole; a timer surviving into a terminal stage is
+  swallowed by the post-terminal dispatch guard.
+* **Tripwire**: `DecisionStepProcessor.IsParkedWithoutDeadline` has a WDP branch
+  (dead-end zone = desktop arrived) so a regression in the backstop becomes visible
+  as `session_parked_without_deadline`.
+
+# Examples
+
+Session afee7ae0 (the audit trigger): Succeeded in 9:32 min, but its timeline carried
+`autopilot_profile` (807), an `autopilot_profile_missing` WARN, `esp_config_detected`
+unknown/unknown, 30 `modern_deployment_log` rollup events and 10 `app_install_starved`
+entries — all structurally meaningless on WDP. After the gates, the same session shape
+emits none of these; completion rode Hello-skipped + desktop as before.
+
+Deliberately NOT changed (open follow-ups, see the WDP audit topic memory): the ESP
+phase vocabulary (`esp_phase_changed`/stage names ride the Classic rails on WDP),
+subscription to the `BootstrapperAgentServiceLogProvider` event channel, and
+`registry_app_state` as the primary WDP app source.
+
+# Citations
+
+* `src/Agent/AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Core/Security/EnrollmentRegistryDetector.cs` — deterministic rule + helper
+* `src/Agent/AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Core/Monitoring/Telemetry/DeviceInfo/DeviceInfoCollector.NetworkAndSecurity.cs` — profile/ESP emission gates
+* `src/Agent/AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Core/Monitoring/Enrollment/SystemSignals/ModernDeploymentTracker.cs` — `DevicePreparationNoiseEventIds`
+* `src/Shared/AutopilotMonitor.DecisionCore/Engine/DecisionEngine.DevicePreparation.cs` — backstop deadline
+* `src/Shared/AutopilotMonitor.DecisionCore/State/EnrollmentScenarioProfileUpdater.cs` — High/Medium seeding
+* Tests: `DevicePreparationEngineTests`, `ModernDeploymentTrackerDevicePrepTests`, `EnrollmentTerminationHandlerTests.StarvedApps_skipped_on_device_preparation`, `DeviceInfoCollectorEspRefreshTests.NoEspEvidenceAtAll_SuppressesTheEvent`
@@ -58,6 +58,21 @@ timestamp runs backward are dropped (`ClockSkewDropped`).
 | Complete, `desktop_arrived` event | `desktop_handoff` |
 | Failed | attribution ends — tail stays unattributed |

+## Quality flags (AttributionVersion 2)
+
+Duration-critical flags (`ClockSkewDropped`, `PartialObservation`,
+`WhiteGloveAnchorsIncomplete`, `PriorEnrollmentResidue`) exclude a breakdown from fleet
+segment statistics with a disclosed count; the blocking-set flags (`BlockingSetUnknown`,
+`BlockingSetTruncated`) only limit per-app evidence and never gate fleet stats.
+
+`PriorEnrollmentResidue` (v2) fires on `historic_ime_replay_detected`: the IME log on disk
+predates the enrollment, so the device was re-enrolled without a wipe — pre-installed apps
+complete as instant detections and pull the phase anchors ahead of the real ESP page
+(session f475e697: AccountSetup anchor 6.5 min early, 457 s misattributed to
+`identity_hello`). `registry_app_baseline` successes are deliberately NOT a trigger — they
+are by-design normal for Windows Device Preparation (DPP Batch-1 apps install before the
+agent exists) and would starve that class's aggregates.
+
 ## ESP-blocking apps (positive evidence only)

 Per-app intervals use EVENT timestamps (first started/download event → LAST terminal
@@ -117,7 +132,7 @@ gap before the first part-2 phase declaration is unattributed, not guessed.

 # Citations

-* `src/Backend/AutopilotMonitor.Functions/Helpers/TimeAttributionCalculator.cs` — calculator + semantics (AttributionVersion 1).
+* `src/Backend/AutopilotMonitor.Functions/Helpers/TimeAttributionCalculator.cs` — calculator + semantics (AttributionVersion 2).
 * `src/Backend/AutopilotMonitor.Functions/Services/TableStorageService.TimeAttribution.cs` — persistence.
 * `src/Backend/AutopilotMonitor.Functions/Services/MaintenanceService.Aggregation.cs` — sweep + aggregation.
 * `src/Backend/AutopilotMonitor.Functions.Tests/TimeAttributionCalculatorTests.cs` — golden fixtures pinning the invariant.
@@ -13,6 +13,7 @@ https://docs.autopilotmonitor.com (separate repository).

 * [Architecture Guide](architecture.md) - High-level architecture overview and solution layout for contributors.
 * [Version Contract](versioning.md) - One version shape for agent, backend and MCP: the ETag-CAS counter blob that mints build numbers, and the manifests published only after a deploy is verified live.
+* [Customer Script Publishing](script-publishing.md) - How the customer-facing PowerShell scripts reach download.autopilotmonitor.com/agent/, why publishing is decoupled from agent releases, and the guards keeping the published copy, the version badge and the portal's version oracle in agreement.
 * [URL Registry](url-registry.md) - Every well-known host lives in one registry file per component (Constants.cs / utils/config.ts / src/config.ts), enforced by guard tests; includes the agent-download migration to the download alias and its deploy-order constraint.
 * [Drift Guards](drift-guards.md) - The 2026-08 fragility-audit follow-up contracts: SignalR message-name catalog (typed on both ends), the inverted-tick RowKey codec, tombstone table tagging, the shrink-only OkAsync baseline, per-section config PATCH with the section field map, and the web's scoped-endpoint builders + sidebar visibility matrix.

@@ -23,8 +24,11 @@ https://docs.autopilotmonitor.com (separate repository).
 * [Agent Endpoint Migration](agent/endpoint-migration.md) - How the backend re-homes agents to a new API base URL via the config channel (backend move or per-tenant region move): live-fetch-only, allowlist-validated on both sides, one hop, kill wins.
 * [Gather Rule Debug Log](agent/gather-rule-debug-log.md) - EnableGatherRuleDebugLog (ConfigVersion 36): the per-tenant local trace file that explains every gather-rule evaluation decision — scope skips, on_change suppression, empty collector results, logparser position/parse-mode outcomes — for rules that produce no timeline events.
 * [MDM Reboot Coalescing](agent/mdm-reboot-coalescing.md) - Attributing the mid-ESP coalesced reboot ("second sign-in") to the device-assigned policy URIs that forced it: aggregated DM-Enterprise 2800 observations (neutral, flush-time watermark) + the ANALYZE-ESP-005 advisory gated on an actually-observed reboot.
+* [ESP Completion Starvation — the sits-d Cloud-PC complex](agent/post-reboot-completion-recovery.md) - Why a SkipUser=true flow (no user ESP page → no Shell-Core 62407, no AccountSetup registry) left the completion gate satisfied but never evaluated — five Cloud PCs idled six hours at "waiting on: hello_resolution" — and the fix: the observed skip stands in for the final-exit evidence in the IME user-session completion attempt. Plus the two adjacent defects fixed alongside: the edge-only user-apps-settled synthesis (now level-triggered) and the never-wired Shell-Core restart replay (now Hello-wizard-only, with the reasoning why a replayed 62407 must never reach the reducer).
 * [Secure Boot CA-2023 Detection](agent/secureboot-ca2023-detection.md) - Why ANALYZE-SEC-001 v3 reads the UEFI db/KEK variables directly instead of trusting the SecureBoot\Servicing registry, and how the one-sided uefiCa2023FirmwareConfirmed marker plus a not_exists precondition give absence-tolerant suppression across old and new agents.
 * [Continue-Anyway Observation Mode](agent/continue-anyway-observation.md) - EnableEspContinueAnywayObservation (ConfigVersion 37, operator-set): Device-phase ESP terminal failures on Continue-Anyway profiles get a bounded 60-min observation instead of an immediate hard fail; the DAD-validated real-user desktop + Hello gate detect the true end, the session completes Succeeded + EspSoftFailure (amber "with issues" badge), expiry un-defangs to the original esp_terminal_failure.
+* [Registry App-State Second Pillar](agent/registry-app-state-pillar.md) - IME's authoritative per-app state read straight from the registry (Win32Apps EnforcementStateMessage, EspTrackingWin32Apps, StatusServiceReports) via a snapshot-and-diff watcher; registry/log reconciliation doubles as the built-in IME log-pattern drift alarm.
+* [WDP Scenario Gates & Completion Backstop](agent/wdp-scenario-gates.md) - How the agent gates Autopilot/ESP-only machinery off on Windows Device Preparation sessions (deterministic ExecutionContext marker, fail-toward-Classic), which noise it suppresses (ZTD probe, esp_config unknown, ModernDeployment 100/417/418/1005, starved sweep), and the WDP completion model: High-confidence seed, desktop-based arm D, and the 30-min device_prep_completion backstop.
 * [ESP Policy-Provider Stall Detection](agent/esp-policy-provider-stall.md) - The EnrollmentStatusTracking CSP's no-timeout Setup/Apps wait is keyed to the Intune-registered "Sidecar" provider by NAME: co-management's "ConfigMgr" parks the user ESP at "Apps (Identifying)" for days even with TrackingPoliciesCreated=1 (issue #106); the always-on two-arm esp_policy_provider_stalled tripwire (provider_incomplete | sidecar_provider_missing) and the SOFTWARE\Microsoft\Windows\Autopilot gather-rule allowlist entry that surface it.

 # Rules
@@ -1,5 +1,25 @@
 # Log

+## 2026-08-20
+
+* **Update**: `agent/post-reboot-completion-recovery.md` — retitled to "ESP Completion Starvation — the sits-d Cloud-PC complex" and reframed on the evidence: the reboot was a red herring. The five stuck Cloud PCs carried `SkipUserStatusPage=True` (read 10+ times across three agent processes, `True` every time) and Windows honoured it — no user ESP page, hence no Shell-Core 62407 and no AccountSetup provisioning registry, verified over a six-hour uninterrupted post-reboot run with the watcher armed. Arm B of `ShouldTransitionToAwaitingHello` was open from the bootstrap onward, but every evaluation site hangs off a signal a skip-user flow cannot produce, and the `AdvisoryCompletion` backstop arms exclusively from an `EspExiting` signal — an open gate nobody knocks on. Fix: `HandleImeUserSessionCompletedV1` accepts the observed skip in place of the final-exit evidence (`skipUserExitEquivalent`; anchor + genuine IME completion + real-user desktop stay mandatory, WDP excluded). The knock deliberately lives on the IME edge, not desktop arrival — ordering-robust against Fix 10's AccountSetup bounce-back and semantically "user-phase work finished" rather than mid-install. `ClassicSkipUserEspUserSessionCompletionTests` replays the real 8110e262 ordering end to end. Docs and comments no longer claim an ESP-exit recovery that does not exist (stray duplicate summary in `ShellCoreTracker`, `ImeLogHost` restore-callback comment); the residual `SkipUser=false` exit-in-downtime gap is named honestly and surfaced by `ANALYZE-ESP-005` via `session_stalled` instead of being patched with an unorderable replay.
+
+## 2026-08-19
+
+* **New**: `agent/post-reboot-completion-recovery.md` — a forced mid-ESP reboot (DeviceGuard/DmaGuard) used to cost the session its AccountSetup completion permanently. Two defects: `ShellCoreTracker.BackfillRecentEspExitEvents()` existed but had no caller, so every agent restart dropped an ESP exit (62407) written while it was down; and the user-apps-settled synthesis was edge-triggered on `EspExited` only, so apps settling afterwards never re-opened the gate. `EspAndHelloHost.Start()` now backfills with a lookback sized to the downtime (`previousExit=reboot_kill` → since `LastBootUtc`, clamped to 360 min), and `ReevaluateUserAppsSettledSynthesis()` is chained into `ImeLogTracker.OnAppStateChanged`. No new completion path — the gate conditions are unchanged. Evidence: sits-d Cloud PCs, five `Incomplete` sessions on healthy devices, two of them at `138/138 apps, 0 failed`. Hardened over two review rounds: the remembered edge must be a **live** exit that is **confirmed** post-AccountSetup (a replay carries no evidence of its own position — Shell-Core writes the same `CommercialOOBE_ESPProgress_Page_Exiting` for the intermediate and the final exit, and the registry check reads *now*, not the event's time); the replay hands over the **newest** exit rather than the oldest; the replay is narrowed to the Hello-wizard start (62404) alone — a conservative fact that can only make the agent wait longer. A replayed ESP exit is never re-raised at all: Windows writes the identical description for the intermediate and the final exit, the reducer orders exits by ingest ordinal (fresher than reality for a replay) and `HandleEspExitingV1` passes `espFinalExitInFlight: true` for every arriving exit, so arm C of `ShouldTransitionToAwaitingHello` would open on a historic handoff once the restored state carries AccountSetupEntered + IME user session + desktop. A replayed ESP failure is likewise dropped (it could fail a session that recovered). Skipped records are reported as an `agent_trace`. The window is **measured** from the previous run's last known liveness (snapshot mtime, widened by `LastBootUtc`) instead of a constant — the scheduled task has a BootTrigger only and no restart-on-failure, so a crashed agent returns hours later and five minutes would lose the exit every time. On `first_run` the replay stays off, leaving the happy path untouched.
+
+* **Update**: `rules/analyze-rule-triggers.md` — `on_event:session_stalled` documented as an established interim trigger for the never-terminal stuck session (one emission per session, no throttle needed). `ANALYZE-ESP-005` carries it: both its conditions are monotonic and it has no terminal precondition, and it fires at confidence 95 on the sits-d stalled stream. `ANALYZE-APP-015` deliberately does NOT — it is the worked example of the terminal-precondition trap (lint 1) — and `ANALYZE-ESP-001` does not either, because its `phase_duration` gate on a still-open phase is unverified mid-run. New `ANALYZE-APP-016` ("Required Apps Never Started — ESP Apps Gate Starved") turns the existing `app_install_starved` events into a customer-facing finding and, unlike `ANALYZE-APP-015`, fires even when the session succeeded — session `3b9291aa` was recorded `Succeeded` with 99 required apps that never started installing.
+
+* **New**: `script-publishing.md` — the customer script publishing chain. `.github/scripts/Publish-BootstrapScripts.ps1` becomes the single owner (dev render, version-bump guard, uploads, version oracles, alias verification), called both by the new `publish-scripts.yml` (push to `main` on `scripts/Bootstrap/**` and `scripts/CustomerSetup/**`) and by the `publish_as_stable` branch of `build-agent.yml`. Script publishing no longer waits for an agent release. Blobs are published in a deterministic CRLF/UTF-8-no-BOM form so byte comparisons do not depend on the checkout; the Pester + ASCII gates move into the reusable `bootstrap-script-gates.yml` and block the upload; `AdminConfiguration.LatestBootstrapV2ScriptVersion` now has exactly one writer. The version-bump guard compares a code fingerprint (PowerShell token stream without comments, newlines and line continuations), so only behaviour changes require a `$ScriptVersion` bump — comment and formatting changes publish with a warning.
+
+## 2026-08-18
+
+* **New**: `agent/wdp-scenario-gates.md` — WDP scenario gates (afee7ae0 audit): deterministic ExecutionContext marker as the only gate key (fail-toward-Classic), suppressed Autopilot/ESP-only emissions and hosts (autopilot_profile*/ZTD probe, esp_config unknown null-gate, EspPolicyProviderStallHost, ProvisioningStatusTracker, ModernDeployment noise IDs 100/417/418/1005 + error-backfill skip, starved sweep), and the WDP completion model (High-confidence v2 seed via `enrollmentTypeDeterministic`, desktop-based arm D, 30-min `device_prep_completion` backstop, parked-tripwire WDP branch).
+
+* **Update**: `backend/time-attribution.md` — AttributionVersion 1 → 2: new duration-critical quality flag `PriorEnrollmentResidue` (fires on `historic_ime_replay_detected`; a re-enrollment without wipe pulls the phase anchors ahead of the real ESP page, so the segments are excluded from fleet stats; `registry_app_baseline` successes deliberately not a trigger — by-design normal for WDP). Added the quality-flags section.
+* **Update**: `agent/logs-and-persistence.md`, `agent/overview.md`, `agent/gather-rule-debug-log.md` — log files renamed to unified kebab-case: `agent.log` (date rotation dropped; size segments `agent-NNN.log`), `bootstrap-script.log` (was `bootstrap_agent.log`), `bootstrap-msi.log` (was `msi-bootstrap.log`), `crash-*.log`, `gather-rules-debug.log`, `ime-pattern-matches.log`. Old names still appear in archives from pre-rename agents.
+* **New**: `agent/registry-app-state-pillar.md` — the registry second pillar for IME app state (audit follow-up): snapshot-and-diff watcher on `HKLM\...\IntuneManagementExtension` (Win32Apps / EspTrackingWin32Apps / StatusServiceReports), `registry_app_state` + `app_state_reconciliation` events, silent startup baseline, WDP reuse notes.
+
 ## 2026-08-17

 * **Update**: `mcp/tool-telemetry.md` — the `tool_call` stderr line now carries `errorMessage` (capped at 300 chars; thrown message or the leading `toolError` text, absent on success), so error drilldowns name the failure class instead of guessing from args. Same change: `get_rule_stats` omits the per-rule daily `trend` rows by default (they drove 50% of calls over the response cap at platform scope); `includeTrends=true` opts back in, the response carries a `trendsNote` marker when stripped.
@@ -101,6 +101,10 @@ Interim evaluation changes what a rule's conditions mean mid-flight. Three new l
 - WG battery rule (sits-d): `evaluateOn: ["enrollment_end", "whiteglove_sealed"]` — technician gets the channel alert at the bench; Part-2 terminal pass finalizes or resolves the finding.
 - Hybrid-affinity stuck (esa): ANALYZE-ID-004 gets `evaluateOn: ["enrollment_end", "on_event:hybrid_login_pending"]` — the second overdue-login event (threshold 65) produces a live finding on the still-InProgress session. ANALYZE-APP-015 stays `enrollment_end`-only until its conditions are hardened (lint 1).

+- Stuck after a forced mid-ESP reboot (sits-d Cloud PCs, 2026-08-19): `on_event:session_stalled` is the established trigger for the never-terminal stuck session. The agent emits `session_stalled` exactly once per session (60-minute stall probe), so the trigger is rare by construction and needs no throttle. Five Cloud PCs sat at `InProgress` with **zero findings** for hours — a mid-ESP reboot had killed the agent in `Stage=EspAccountSetup` — before the max-lifetime watchdog eventually terminalised them as `Incomplete`. ANALYZE-ESP-005 carries the trigger and fires on that stream at confidence 95 (verified against session `8110e262`): both its conditions (`mdm_policy_reboot_required.firstRebootUri` exists, `system_reboot_detected` count ≥ 1) are **monotonic** and it has no terminal preconditions, so lint 1 does not apply. ANALYZE-APP-016 is interim-safe for the same reason (`app_install_starved` count ≥ 1 only ever grows).
+
+  Two rules were considered and deliberately **not** given the trigger: ANALYZE-APP-015 is the worked example of lint 1 above and stays `enrollment_end`-only; ANALYZE-ESP-001 gates on `phase_duration` of a phase that is still open mid-run, and that evaluation is not pinned by a test — an unverified trigger is not worth a possible false positive on every slow DeviceSetup.
+
 # Product Decisions (settled 2026-08-14)

 1. Notify-on-resolve (a "finding healed" message)? **No** (v1) — resolution is visible in UI/MCP.
@@ -0,0 +1,137 @@
+---
+type: Concept
+title: Customer Script Publishing — download.autopilotmonitor.com/agent/
+description: How the customer-facing PowerShell scripts reach the download alias, why publishing is decoupled from agent releases, and the guards that keep the published copy, the version badge and the portal's version oracle in agreement.
+resource: /.github/scripts/Publish-BootstrapScripts.ps1
+tags:
+  - build
+  - ci
+  - release
+  - bootstrap
+  - download-alias
+timestamp: 2026-08-19T00:00:00+02:00
+---
+
+# Overview
+
+Four PowerShell scripts are served to customers from `https://download.autopilotmonitor.com/agent/`:
+
+| Blob | Source | Consumed by |
+| --- | --- | --- |
+| `Install-AutopilotMonitor.ps1` | `scripts/Bootstrap/Install-AutopilotMonitor.ps1` | Intune platform script (customer uploads a copy); downloaded live on every device by the WDP bootstrap MSI |
+| `Install-AutopilotMonitor-Dev.ps1` | rendered from the same source | dev fleet |
+| `Test-ShouldBootstrapAgent.ps1` | `scripts/Bootstrap/Test-ShouldBootstrapAgent.ps1` | customer dry run via `irm ... \| iex` |
+| `Grant-AutopilotMonitorAddOn.ps1` | `scripts/CustomerSetup/Grant-AutopilotMonitorAddOn.ps1` | optional Graph permission grant |
+
+`Uninstall-AutopilotMonitor.ps1` is deliberately not published — nothing links it, and an
+unauthenticated uninstall script on the public download host is not a feature.
+
+The alias is a Front Door route in front of the `agent` container; see
+[url-registry.md](url-registry.md) for the host registry and the migration to the alias.
+
+# Publishing chain
+
+`.github/scripts/Publish-BootstrapScripts.ps1` is the single owner. Two workflows call it
+with identical arguments:
+
+* **`publish-scripts.yml`** — on every push to `main` touching `scripts/Bootstrap/**`,
+  `scripts/CustomerSetup/**` or the publisher itself, plus `workflow_dispatch` with a
+  `dry_run` input.
+* **`build-agent.yml`** — inside the `publish_as_stable` branch, after `version.json` is
+  uploaded, so a release lands a set consistent with what is already live.
+
+Before this split, the script blobs rotated **only** on a stable agent release. A bootstrap
+fix therefore sat unpublished until the next agent cutover — while the WDP MSI downloads the
+published copy on every enrolling device. Script publishing is now decoupled from the agent
+release cadence; the release path still publishes, so it can never fall behind either.
+
+Both workflows share the concurrency group `agent-blob-publish` (`cancel-in-progress: false`).
+Both write `version.json`, and the publisher's `bootstrapVersion` read-modify-write must not
+interleave with a release writing the agent fields.
+
+# Publisher steps
+
+1. **Parse** `$ScriptVersion` from the bootstrap source.
+2. **Dev render** — literal substitution of the two `$AgentDownloadUrl` / `$VersionJsonName`
+   defaults. A missing anchor literal is a hard failure: a silently un-substituted dev script
+   would point the dev fleet at the stable agent.
+3. **Version-bump guard** — if the published bootstrap changed *behaviour* under an unchanged
+   `$ScriptVersion`, the run aborts. Comment and formatting changes publish with a warning.
+   See [Version oracles](#version-oracles).
+4. **Upload** every blob with `Cache-Control: no-cache` (they all rotate in place), mirrored
+   fail-soft to the legacy storage account.
+5. **Reconcile the version oracles.**
+6. **Verify through the alias** — re-download each blob and compare SHA-256, six attempts
+   20 s apart. A persistent mismatch means blobs were written but Front Door serves stale
+   content, and the error names the `az afd endpoint purge` command.
+
+## Deterministic publish form
+
+Every blob is published as **CRLF, UTF-8 without BOM**, normalized by the publisher rather
+than taken from the working copy. Git normalizes line endings on checkout — a Windows runner
+yields CRLF, a `core.autocrlf=false` clone yields LF — so publishing raw working-copy bytes
+would emit different blobs for identical source and make every byte comparison, guard and
+verification alike, depend on where the workflow ran. CRLF is also what PS 5.1 expects on the
+device and what has always been published.
+
+The ASCII-only rule for `scripts/Bootstrap/*.ps1` (enforced by the gates below) is unrelated
+but adjacent: PS 5.1 reads BOM-less files as ANSI and corrupts multi-byte characters.
+
+## Version oracles
+
+Three places state the bootstrap script version, and all three are derived from
+`$ScriptVersion` in the source:
+
+* `version.json.bootstrapVersion` — read by the docs badge. Written by the publisher as a
+  read-modify-write under `If-Match`, so a concurrent agent release keeps its own fields.
+  `build-agent.yml` seeds the field when it builds the manifest so the published manifest is
+  never briefly missing it; the publisher owns and re-asserts it afterwards.
+* `AdminConfiguration.LatestBootstrapV2ScriptVersion` — read by the portal to tell a customer
+  their uploaded copy is outdated. **Only** the publisher writes it; `build-agent.yml` writes
+  the `LatestAgentV2*` fields and nothing else. One writer per field.
+* The `Bootstrap script version: v<x>` marker the script logs, parsed out of captured platform
+  script stdout by `utils/bootstrapVersion.ts`.
+
+The version-bump guard exists because those three would otherwise keep asserting a version
+that no longer matches what customers download: a behaviour change under an unchanged version
+is invisible to every consumer, and customers decide from that version whether to re-upload
+their Intune copy.
+
+"Changed" means changed **behaviour**, matching what the source file's own comment on
+`$ScriptVersion` already asks for ("bump on meaningful changes"). The guard compares a code
+fingerprint — the PowerShell token stream with comments, newlines and line continuations
+removed — so comment fixes, typo corrections in comments and reflow publish with a
+`::warning::` instead of failing. Tokenising rather than regex-stripping keeps a `#` inside a
+string literal from being mistaken for a comment.
+
+# Gates
+
+`.github/workflows/bootstrap-script-gates.yml` is a `workflow_call` workflow holding the
+checks once:
+
+* Pester suite under **Windows PowerShell 5.1** — the runtime IME uses for platform scripts.
+* ASCII-only scan over `scripts/Bootstrap/*.ps1`.
+* `Publish-BootstrapScripts.ps1 -DryRun` — exercises the dev-render anchors and the
+  version-bump guard, and reports per blob whether the alias is current, stale or missing.
+
+Two callers: `pester.yml` on pull requests (reports, does not block the merge button), and
+`publish-scripts.yml` on pushes to `main`, where the gates job is a `needs:` dependency of the
+publish job and therefore **blocks** the upload. `pester.yml` deliberately has no push trigger
+— it would duplicate the gate run with no consequence.
+
+# Operating it
+
+* Dry run and drift check, no credentials needed for the read paths:
+  `pwsh .github/scripts/Publish-BootstrapScripts.ps1 -DryRun`
+* Republish without a code change: `workflow_dispatch` on **Publish customer scripts** with
+  `dry_run=false`.
+* Front Door serving stale content after a successful upload:
+  `az afd endpoint purge --resource-group rg-autopilotmonitor-prd-gwc --profile-name autopilotmonitor-fd --endpoint-name apm-download --content-paths '/agent/*'`
+
+# Citations
+
+* `.github/scripts/Publish-BootstrapScripts.ps1`
+* `.github/workflows/publish-scripts.yml`, `.github/workflows/bootstrap-script-gates.yml`, `.github/workflows/pester.yml`
+* `.github/workflows/build-agent.yml` (the `publish_as_stable` branch of the upload step)
+* `src/Agent/AutopilotMonitor.BootstrapMsi/Invoke-BootstrapDownload.ps1`
+* `src/Web/autopilot-monitor-web/utils/bootstrapVersion.ts`
@@ -0,0 +1,113 @@
+{
+  "$schema": "../schema/analyze-rule.schema.json",
+  "ruleId": "ANALYZE-APP-016",
+  "title": "Required Apps Never Started — ESP Apps Gate Starved",
+  "description": "One or more required user-ESP apps never started installing while the ESP AccountSetup apps gate waited on them — the agent observed the ESP page exit with those apps still in a non-terminal, never-started state. Unlike ANALYZE-APP-015 (which reports that completion was DEFERRED because of a pending app, and stays silent once the session reaches a terminal verdict) this rule reports the delivery gap itself and fires regardless of the final outcome: an enrollment that Windows called done while required apps never ran is a successful enrollment with missing software, and the operator must see it.",
+  "severity": "warning",
+  "category": "apps",
+  "version": "1.0.0",
+  "author": "Autopilot Monitor",
+  "enabled": true,
+  "evaluateOn": [
+    "enrollment_end",
+    "whiteglove_sealed",
+    "on_event:session_stalled"
+  ],
+  "trigger": "single",
+  "baseConfidence": 75,
+  "confidenceThreshold": 70,
+  "conditions": [
+    {
+      "signal": "starved_apps_present",
+      "source": "event_count",
+      "eventType": "app_install_starved",
+      "operator": "count_gte",
+      "value": "1",
+      "required": true
+    },
+    {
+      "signal": "many_starved_apps",
+      "source": "event_count",
+      "eventType": "app_install_starved",
+      "operator": "count_gte",
+      "value": "5",
+      "required": false
+    },
+    {
+      "signal": "appName",
+      "source": "event_type",
+      "eventType": "app_install_starved",
+      "dataField": "appName",
+      "operator": "exists",
+      "value": "",
+      "required": false
+    },
+    {
+      "signal": "state",
+      "source": "event_type",
+      "eventType": "app_install_starved",
+      "dataField": "state",
+      "operator": "exists",
+      "value": "",
+      "required": false
+    }
+  ],
+  "confidenceFactors": [
+    {
+      "signal": "many_starved_apps",
+      "condition": "exists",
+      "weight": 15
+    },
+    {
+      "signal": "appName",
+      "condition": "exists",
+      "weight": 10
+    }
+  ],
+  "explanation": "At least one **required** app assigned to the user ESP never started installing. The Intune Management Extension never moved it out of its initial state (`{{state}}`) — it did not download, did not install, and did not fail — while the ESP AccountSetup apps gate was waiting on it. First app observed: `{{appName}}`.\n\nEvery starved app has its own `app_install_starved` timeline event carrying `appId`, `appName` and `state` — open the timeline and filter on that event type for the complete list.\n\nThis is a **delivery** problem, not an install error, and it is invisible in the Intune console: the app simply never appears. Typical causes:\n\n- far more required apps targeted at the ESP than the gate can service in the available window,\n- requirement rules that are never met on this device (OS / architecture / registry / script checks),\n- an unsatisfied dependency or supersedence chain,\n- an app that needs a context unavailable during provisioning (e.g. a VPN client waiting on a portal sign-in),\n- a mid-ESP reboot that cut the gate short — check whether the mid-ESP reboot advisory also fired for this session.\n\nNote that this finding is independent of the session verdict. A session can be marked **Succeeded** and still be missing every app listed here.",
+  "remediation": [
+    {
+      "title": "Shrink the ESP blocking set",
+      "steps": [
+        "Open the Enrollment Status Page profile and review the blocking app list — every required app there must finish before the user reaches the desktop.",
+        "Move apps that do not have to be present at first logon from *required* to *available*, or remove them from the ESP's blocking apps selection.",
+        "Prefer a small, deliberately chosen blocking set (security agent, VPN, management tooling) over the full application catalogue."
+      ]
+    },
+    {
+      "title": "Unblock the individual apps",
+      "steps": [
+        "Collect the app names from the `app_install_starved` timeline events in this session.",
+        "For each app, review its requirement rules and dependencies in Intune — IntuneManagementExtension.log records every requirement evaluation.",
+        "Verify the assignment actually targets the signed-in user (user-targeted apps need an established Entra user affinity; check the hybrid user-affinity finding if it also fired).",
+        "Re-run an enrollment and confirm the apps now reach a terminal state before the ESP exits."
+      ]
+    },
+    {
+      "title": "Rule out a truncated gate",
+      "steps": [
+        "Check whether a mid-ESP reboot was observed for this session — a forced restart during AccountSetup cuts the apps gate short and can starve everything still queued.",
+        "If so, reassign the reboot-forcing device policies to user groups so the restart lands after AccountSetup."
+      ]
+    }
+  ],
+  "relatedDocs": [
+    {
+      "title": "Microsoft Learn: Enrollment Status Page — blocking apps",
+      "url": "https://learn.microsoft.com/en-us/intune/intune-service/enrollment/windows-enrollment-status"
+    },
+    {
+      "title": "Microsoft Learn: Win32 app requirement rules",
+      "url": "https://learn.microsoft.com/en-us/intune/intune-service/apps/apps-win32-add"
+    }
+  ],
+  "markSessionAsFailedDefault": false,
+  "tags": [
+    "apps",
+    "esp",
+    "starvation",
+    "assignment",
+    "blocking",
+    "delivery-gap"
+  ]
+}
@@ -5,12 +5,13 @@
  "description": "Attributes an observed enrollment reboot to device-assigned MDM policies that Windows flagged as reboot-required. Fires ONLY when both facts are present in the session: at least one actually-observed reboot (system_reboot_detected) AND reboot-required policy flags (mdm_policy_reboot_required). Policy flags alone — e.g. from a user-policy sync during AccountSetup — force no reboot and stay advisory-silent.",
  "severity": "warning",
  "category": "esp",
-  "version": "1.2.0",
+  "version": "1.3.0",
  "author": "Autopilot Monitor",
  "enabled": true,
  "evaluateOn": [
    "enrollment_end",
-    "whiteglove_sealed"
+    "whiteglove_sealed",
+    "on_event:session_stalled"
  ],
  "trigger": "single",
  "baseConfidence": 70,
@@ -5,7 +5,7 @@
  "description": "On a hybrid-joined device the real user reached the desktop, but the Autopilot provisioning placeholder stayed active in JoinInfo and the agent repeatedly reported the hybrid sign-in as overdue. The user session never establishes Entra user affinity (no PRT), so the Account Setup ESP re-runs on every logon and the enrollment never completes.",
  "severity": "high",
  "category": "identity",
-  "version": "1.1.0",
+  "version": "1.2.0",
  "author": "Autopilot Monitor",
  "enabled": true,
  "trigger": "correlation",
@@ -51,7 +51,7 @@
    { "signal": "hybrid_login_pending", "condition": "count >= 3", "weight": 10 },
    { "signal": "aad_placeholder_user_detected", "condition": "count >= 3", "weight": 10 }
  ],
-  "explanation": "A real user signed in and reached the desktop, but the device kept reporting the **Autopilot provisioning placeholder** as the active identity in JoinInfo and the hybrid sign-in as **overdue** — across multiple reboots. This means the signed-in user never established **Microsoft Entra user affinity** (no Primary Refresh Token), so:\n\n- the Account Setup ESP page re-appears on every logon,\n- user-targeted required apps and policies cannot settle,\n- the enrollment never reaches completion.\n\nAfter this many hours this is not normal Entra Connect sync latency — something is structurally preventing the user (or the computer object) from registering:\n\n- the computer object's `userCertificate` attribute is not syncing to Entra ID (sync scope / OU filtering),\n- the signing-in user is not synced, or their UPN does not match a verified Entra domain,\n- the device has no line of sight to a domain controller **at logon time**, so the hybrid PRT flow cannot finish,\n- time skew or a proxy blocking `login.microsoftonline.com` / `enterpriseregistration.windows.net` from the user context.",
+  "explanation": "A real user signed in and reached the desktop, but the device kept reporting the **Autopilot provisioning placeholder** as the active identity in JoinInfo and the hybrid sign-in as **overdue** — across multiple reboots. This means the signed-in user never established **Microsoft Entra user affinity** (no Primary Refresh Token), so:\n\n- the Account Setup ESP page re-appears on every logon,\n- user-targeted required apps and policies cannot settle,\n- the enrollment never reaches completion.\n\nAfter this many hours this is not normal Entra Connect sync latency — something is structurally preventing the user (or the computer object) from registering:\n\n- the computer object's `userCertificate` attribute is not syncing to Entra ID (sync scope / OU filtering),\n- the signing-in user is not synced, or their UPN does not match a verified Entra domain,\n- the device has no line of sight to a domain controller **at logon time**, so the hybrid PRT flow cannot finish,\n- time skew or a proxy blocking `login.microsoftonline.com` / `enterpriseregistration.windows.net` from the user context.\n\nA frequent variant: the user's **first sign-in happens without domain-controller reachability** — for example when a pre-logon VPN tunnel (GlobalProtect, Always On VPN, Zscaler ZPA) is not established yet at the logon screen. Windows falls back to cached credentials, the hybrid PRT flow silently never runs, and later reboots do not fix it — sessions in this state typically show repeated reboots and network flapping while the placeholder identity stays active.\n\nA visible side effect: **the Windows Hello for Business wizard never appears**, because Hello provisioning requires an Entra user token (PRT). Hello is a downstream symptom here, not the cause.",
  "remediation": [
    {
      "title": "Verify user affinity on the device",
@@ -70,9 +70,23 @@
        "Ensure domain-controller line of sight at logon from the provisioning network/VLAN (hybrid PRT requires a reachable DC).",
        "Check proxy/firewall rules for login.microsoftonline.com, device.login.microsoftonline.com and enterpriseregistration.windows.net from the user context."
      ]
+    },
+    {
+      "title": "Address VPN and Windows Hello dependencies",
+      "steps": [
+        "If a VPN is required to reach a domain controller, it must be established before or at the logon screen (machine tunnel / pre-logon tunnel). A user-context tunnel that starts after sign-in is too late for the hybrid PRT flow.",
+        "If you deploy Windows Hello for Business to hybrid-joined devices, use cloud Kerberos trust — it removes the on-premises certificate/key-trust dependencies that commonly stall Hello on hybrid devices.",
+        "If you do not use Windows Hello, disable it explicitly via a device-scoped Intune policy instead of leaving it unconfigured — the enrollment then resolves the Hello step deterministically instead of waiting for a wizard that never comes.",
+        "Avoid feature/quality updates mid-enrollment where possible — an OS update with forced reboots during enrollment aggravates this pattern. Consider a short Windows Update deferral covering the enrollment window.",
+        "For hybrid deployments, pre-provisioning (White Glove) materially shrinks the user-facing phase: the device phase runs on a known-good technician network, and the user phase reduces to sign-in, user ESP, and Hello."
+      ]
    }
  ],
  "relatedDocs": [
+    {
+      "title": "Autopilot Monitor: Hybrid join — stuck in Account Setup (no user affinity)",
+      "url": "https://docs.autopilotmonitor.com/troubleshooting/hybrid-join-stuck-in-account-setup"
+    },
    {
      "title": "Autopilot Monitor: Hybrid join — late device registration",
      "url": "https://docs.autopilotmonitor.com/troubleshooting/hybrid-join-late-device-registration"
@@ -831,6 +831,118 @@
        "pending"
      ]
    },
+    {
+      "ruleId": "ANALYZE-APP-016",
+      "title": "Required Apps Never Started — ESP Apps Gate Starved",
+      "description": "One or more required user-ESP apps never started installing while the ESP AccountSetup apps gate waited on them — the agent observed the ESP page exit with those apps still in a non-terminal, never-started state. Unlike ANALYZE-APP-015 (which reports that completion was DEFERRED because of a pending app, and stays silent once the session reaches a terminal verdict) this rule reports the delivery gap itself and fires regardless of the final outcome: an enrollment that Windows called done while required apps never ran is a successful enrollment with missing software, and the operator must see it.",
+      "severity": "warning",
+      "category": "apps",
+      "version": "1.0.0",
+      "author": "Autopilot Monitor",
+      "enabled": true,
+      "evaluateOn": [
+        "enrollment_end",
+        "whiteglove_sealed",
+        "on_event:session_stalled"
+      ],
+      "trigger": "single",
+      "baseConfidence": 75,
+      "confidenceThreshold": 70,
+      "conditions": [
+        {
+          "signal": "starved_apps_present",
+          "source": "event_count",
+          "eventType": "app_install_starved",
+          "operator": "count_gte",
+          "value": "1",
+          "required": true
+        },
+        {
+          "signal": "many_starved_apps",
+          "source": "event_count",
+          "eventType": "app_install_starved",
+          "operator": "count_gte",
+          "value": "5",
+          "required": false
+        },
+        {
+          "signal": "appName",
+          "source": "event_type",
+          "eventType": "app_install_starved",
+          "dataField": "appName",
+          "operator": "exists",
+          "value": "",
+          "required": false
+        },
+        {
+          "signal": "state",
+          "source": "event_type",
+          "eventType": "app_install_starved",
+          "dataField": "state",
+          "operator": "exists",
+          "value": "",
+          "required": false
+        }
+      ],
+      "confidenceFactors": [
+        {
+          "signal": "many_starved_apps",
+          "condition": "exists",
+          "weight": 15
+        },
+        {
+          "signal": "appName",
+          "condition": "exists",
+          "weight": 10
+        }
+      ],
+      "explanation": "At least one **required** app assigned to the user ESP never started installing. The Intune Management Extension never moved it out of its initial state (`{{state}}`) — it did not download, did not install, and did not fail — while the ESP AccountSetup apps gate was waiting on it. First app observed: `{{appName}}`.\n\nEvery starved app has its own `app_install_starved` timeline event carrying `appId`, `appName` and `state` — open the timeline and filter on that event type for the complete list.\n\nThis is a **delivery** problem, not an install error, and it is invisible in the Intune console: the app simply never appears. Typical causes:\n\n- far more required apps targeted at the ESP than the gate can service in the available window,\n- requirement rules that are never met on this device (OS / architecture / registry / script checks),\n- an unsatisfied dependency or supersedence chain,\n- an app that needs a context unavailable during provisioning (e.g. a VPN client waiting on a portal sign-in),\n- a mid-ESP reboot that cut the gate short — check whether the mid-ESP reboot advisory also fired for this session.\n\nNote that this finding is independent of the session verdict. A session can be marked **Succeeded** and still be missing every app listed here.",
+      "remediation": [
+        {
+          "title": "Shrink the ESP blocking set",
+          "steps": [
+            "Open the Enrollment Status Page profile and review the blocking app list — every required app there must finish before the user reaches the desktop.",
+            "Move apps that do not have to be present at first logon from *required* to *available*, or remove them from the ESP's blocking apps selection.",
+            "Prefer a small, deliberately chosen blocking set (security agent, VPN, management tooling) over the full application catalogue."
+          ]
+        },
+        {
+          "title": "Unblock the individual apps",
+          "steps": [
+            "Collect the app names from the `app_install_starved` timeline events in this session.",
+            "For each app, review its requirement rules and dependencies in Intune — IntuneManagementExtension.log records every requirement evaluation.",
+            "Verify the assignment actually targets the signed-in user (user-targeted apps need an established Entra user affinity; check the hybrid user-affinity finding if it also fired).",
+            "Re-run an enrollment and confirm the apps now reach a terminal state before the ESP exits."
+          ]
+        },
+        {
+          "title": "Rule out a truncated gate",
+          "steps": [
+            "Check whether a mid-ESP reboot was observed for this session — a forced restart during AccountSetup cuts the apps gate short and can starve everything still queued.",
+            "If so, reassign the reboot-forcing device policies to user groups so the restart lands after AccountSetup."
+          ]
+        }
+      ],
+      "relatedDocs": [
+        {
+          "title": "Microsoft Learn: Enrollment Status Page — blocking apps",
+          "url": "https://learn.microsoft.com/en-us/intune/intune-service/enrollment/windows-enrollment-status"
+        },
+        {
+          "title": "Microsoft Learn: Win32 app requirement rules",
+          "url": "https://learn.microsoft.com/en-us/intune/intune-service/apps/apps-win32-add"
+        }
+      ],
+      "markSessionAsFailedDefault": false,
+      "tags": [
+        "apps",
+        "esp",
+        "starvation",
+        "assignment",
+        "blocking",
+        "delivery-gap"
+      ]
+    },
    {
      "ruleId": "ANALYZE-CORR-003",
      "title": "Proxy Configuration Causing Download Failure",
@@ -2069,12 +2181,13 @@
      "description": "Attributes an observed enrollment reboot to device-assigned MDM policies that Windows flagged as reboot-required. Fires ONLY when both facts are present in the session: at least one actually-observed reboot (system_reboot_detected) AND reboot-required policy flags (mdm_policy_reboot_required). Policy flags alone — e.g. from a user-policy sync during AccountSetup — force no reboot and stay advisory-silent.",
      "severity": "warning",
      "category": "esp",
-      "version": "1.2.0",
+      "version": "1.3.0",
      "author": "Autopilot Monitor",
      "enabled": true,
      "evaluateOn": [
        "enrollment_end",
-        "whiteglove_sealed"
+        "whiteglove_sealed",
+        "on_event:session_stalled"
      ],
      "trigger": "single",
      "baseConfidence": 70,
@@ -2526,7 +2639,7 @@
      "description": "On a hybrid-joined device the real user reached the desktop, but the Autopilot provisioning placeholder stayed active in JoinInfo and the agent repeatedly reported the hybrid sign-in as overdue. The user session never establishes Entra user affinity (no PRT), so the Account Setup ESP re-runs on every logon and the enrollment never completes.",
      "severity": "high",
      "category": "identity",
-      "version": "1.1.0",
+      "version": "1.2.0",
      "author": "Autopilot Monitor",
      "enabled": true,
      "trigger": "correlation",
@@ -2587,7 +2700,7 @@
          "weight": 10
        }
      ],
-      "explanation": "A real user signed in and reached the desktop, but the device kept reporting the **Autopilot provisioning placeholder** as the active identity in JoinInfo and the hybrid sign-in as **overdue** — across multiple reboots. This means the signed-in user never established **Microsoft Entra user affinity** (no Primary Refresh Token), so:\n\n- the Account Setup ESP page re-appears on every logon,\n- user-targeted required apps and policies cannot settle,\n- the enrollment never reaches completion.\n\nAfter this many hours this is not normal Entra Connect sync latency — something is structurally preventing the user (or the computer object) from registering:\n\n- the computer object's `userCertificate` attribute is not syncing to Entra ID (sync scope / OU filtering),\n- the signing-in user is not synced, or their UPN does not match a verified Entra domain,\n- the device has no line of sight to a domain controller **at logon time**, so the hybrid PRT flow cannot finish,\n- time skew or a proxy blocking `login.microsoftonline.com` / `enterpriseregistration.windows.net` from the user context.",
+      "explanation": "A real user signed in and reached the desktop, but the device kept reporting the **Autopilot provisioning placeholder** as the active identity in JoinInfo and the hybrid sign-in as **overdue** — across multiple reboots. This means the signed-in user never established **Microsoft Entra user affinity** (no Primary Refresh Token), so:\n\n- the Account Setup ESP page re-appears on every logon,\n- user-targeted required apps and policies cannot settle,\n- the enrollment never reaches completion.\n\nAfter this many hours this is not normal Entra Connect sync latency — something is structurally preventing the user (or the computer object) from registering:\n\n- the computer object's `userCertificate` attribute is not syncing to Entra ID (sync scope / OU filtering),\n- the signing-in user is not synced, or their UPN does not match a verified Entra domain,\n- the device has no line of sight to a domain controller **at logon time**, so the hybrid PRT flow cannot finish,\n- time skew or a proxy blocking `login.microsoftonline.com` / `enterpriseregistration.windows.net` from the user context.\n\nA frequent variant: the user's **first sign-in happens without domain-controller reachability** — for example when a pre-logon VPN tunnel (GlobalProtect, Always On VPN, Zscaler ZPA) is not established yet at the logon screen. Windows falls back to cached credentials, the hybrid PRT flow silently never runs, and later reboots do not fix it — sessions in this state typically show repeated reboots and network flapping while the placeholder identity stays active.\n\nA visible side effect: **the Windows Hello for Business wizard never appears**, because Hello provisioning requires an Entra user token (PRT). Hello is a downstream symptom here, not the cause.",
      "remediation": [
        {
          "title": "Verify user affinity on the device",
@@ -2606,9 +2719,23 @@
            "Ensure domain-controller line of sight at logon from the provisioning network/VLAN (hybrid PRT requires a reachable DC).",
            "Check proxy/firewall rules for login.microsoftonline.com, device.login.microsoftonline.com and enterpriseregistration.windows.net from the user context."
          ]
+        },
+        {
+          "title": "Address VPN and Windows Hello dependencies",
+          "steps": [
+            "If a VPN is required to reach a domain controller, it must be established before or at the logon screen (machine tunnel / pre-logon tunnel). A user-context tunnel that starts after sign-in is too late for the hybrid PRT flow.",
+            "If you deploy Windows Hello for Business to hybrid-joined devices, use cloud Kerberos trust — it removes the on-premises certificate/key-trust dependencies that commonly stall Hello on hybrid devices.",
+            "If you do not use Windows Hello, disable it explicitly via a device-scoped Intune policy instead of leaving it unconfigured — the enrollment then resolves the Hello step deterministically instead of waiting for a wizard that never comes.",
+            "Avoid feature/quality updates mid-enrollment where possible — an OS update with forced reboots during enrollment aggravates this pattern. Consider a short Windows Update deferral covering the enrollment window.",
+            "For hybrid deployments, pre-provisioning (White Glove) materially shrinks the user-facing phase: the device phase runs on a known-good technician network, and the user phase reduces to sign-in, user ESP, and Hello."
+          ]
        }
      ],
      "relatedDocs": [
+        {
+          "title": "Autopilot Monitor: Hybrid join — stuck in Account Setup (no user affinity)",
+          "url": "https://docs.autopilotmonitor.com/troubleshooting/hybrid-join-stuck-in-account-setup"
+        },
        {
          "title": "Autopilot Monitor: Hybrid join — late device registration",
          "url": "https://docs.autopilotmonitor.com/troubleshooting/hybrid-join-late-device-registration"
@@ -4,12 +4,23 @@
    {
      "patternId": "HS-COMPLIANCE",
      "category": "always",
-      "pattern": "\\[HS\\] the (?<part>pre|post)-remdiation detection script compliance result for (?<id>[a-z0-9]{8}-[a-z0-9]{4}-[a-z0-9]{4}-[a-z0-9]{4}-[a-z0-9]{12}) is (?<compliance>True|False)",
+      "pattern": "\\[HS\\] the (?<part>pre|post)-rem(?:e)?diation detection script compliance result for (?<id>[a-z0-9]{8}-[a-z0-9]{4}-[a-z0-9]{4}-[a-z0-9]{4}-[a-z0-9]{12}) is (?<compliance>True|False)",
      "action": "healthScriptDetectionResult",
      "parameters": {
        "scriptType": "remediation"
      },
-      "description": "Early-signal fallback for health-script detection / post-detection results. Microsoft IME emits this line immediately after each detection script runs, ~30-90 seconds before the consolidated [HS] new result = JSON line is logged (which only fires after IME's batch-send to the Microsoft service). Short Autopilot enrollments often end inside that gap, so this pattern guarantees at least the compliance verdict is captured. The full data version arrives later via HS-NEW-RESULT and replaces this sparse entry through the UI dedupe (dataCompleteness scoring).",
+      "description": "Early-signal fallback for health-script detection / post-detection results. Microsoft IME emits this line immediately after each detection script runs, ~30-90 seconds before the consolidated [HS] new result = JSON line is logged (which only fires after IME's batch-send to the Microsoft service). Short Autopilot enrollments often end inside that gap, so this pattern guarantees at least the compliance verdict is captured. The full data version arrives later via HS-NEW-RESULT and replaces this sparse entry through the UI dedupe (dataCompleteness scoring). Tolerates both Microsoft's historical typo 'remdiation' and a future corrected 'remediation'. NOTE: IME 1.97 (Dec 2025) no longer emits the post- variant of this line; the post case is covered by HS-COMPLIANCE-POST.",
+      "enabled": true
+    },
+    {
+      "patternId": "HS-COMPLIANCE-POST",
+      "category": "always",
+      "pattern": "\\[HS\\] the (?<part>post) detection script result for (?<id>[a-z0-9]{8}-[a-z0-9]{4}-[a-z0-9]{4}-[a-z0-9]{4}-[a-z0-9]{12}) is (?<compliance>True|False)",
+      "action": "healthScriptDetectionResult",
+      "parameters": {
+        "scriptType": "remediation"
+      },
+      "description": "Post-remediation detection result, current wording. IME 1.97 (Dec 2025) replaced the old '[HS] the post-remdiation detection script compliance result for ...' line (still covered by HS-COMPLIANCE for older logs) with '[HS] the post detection script result for <guid> is <True|False>' (ScriptProcessorV2.cs:721). The literal word 'post' in the line is captured as the part group so the handler classifies it as the post-detection phase.",
      "enabled": true
    },
    {
@@ -139,6 +150,14 @@
      "description": "Captures the install attempt number for the current app. IME logs 'Execute retry 0' for the first attempt and increments on each retry. Reported as attempt+1 so retry 0 becomes AttemptNumber=1 (human-friendly: first attempt).",
      "enabled": true
    },
+    {
+      "patternId": "IME-CACHE-MISS",
+      "category": "always",
+      "pattern": "\\[Win32App\\] Content cache miss for app \\(id = {GUID}, name = (?<name>.*?)\\), start downloading",
+      "action": "updateName",
+      "description": "Captures 'Content cache miss for app (id = <guid>, name = <name>), start downloading...' (ContentManager.cs) as a secondary app-name source. Fires right before a real download begins, so it resolves names for exactly the apps that will produce download/install activity — a redundancy for IME-POLICIES-based naming after IME retired the old name-bearing processing lines.",
+      "enabled": true
+    },
    {
      "patternId": "IME-DECRYPT-FAILED",
      "category": "currentPhase",
@@ -150,9 +169,9 @@
    {
      "patternId": "IME-DETECTED-INSTALLED-1",
      "category": "currentPhase",
-      "pattern": "\\[Win32App\\]\\[ReportingManager\\] Detection state for app with id: {GUID} has been updated\\. Report delta: \\{\"\"DetectionState\"\":\\{\"\"OldValue\"\":null,\"\"NewValue\"\":\"\"Installed\"\"",
+      "pattern": "\\[Win32App\\]\\[ReportingManager\\] Detection state for app with id: {GUID} has been updated\\. Report delta: \\{\"{1,2}DetectionState\"{1,2}:\\{\"{1,2}OldValue\"{1,2}:null,\"{1,2}NewValue\"{1,2}:\"{1,2}Installed\"{1,2}",
      "action": "updateStateInstalled",
-      "description": "Detects when an app's detection state transitions to Installed (new ReportingManager format).",
+      "description": "Detects when an app's detection state transitions to Installed (new ReportingManager format). Quote-flexible since 2026-08-17: IME 1.104 serializes the report-delta JSON with single quotes ({\"Key\":...) where older versions logged doubled quotes ({\"\"Key\"\":...) - every literal quote in the delta is matched as \"{1,2} to cover both.",
      "enabled": true
    },
    {
@@ -168,15 +187,15 @@
      "category": "currentPhase",
      "pattern": "\\[Win32App\\] Detected app {GUID} ",
      "action": "updateStateInstalled",
-      "description": "Detects when an app is detected as installed (old log format).",
-      "enabled": true
+      "description": "Detects when an app is detected as installed (old log format). DISABLED 2026-08-17: the standalone 'Detected app <guid> ' line no longer exists in IME 1.97.107; this regex instead matched the 'Detected app ... and intent is to install, skip applicability check' line, colliding with IME-SKIP-INSTALL-DETECTED and firing updateStateInstalled and updateStateSkipped on the same physical line (see tasks/ime-v1-code-audit-2026-08-17.md).",
+      "enabled": false
    },
    {
      "patternId": "IME-DETECTION-RESULT",
      "category": "always",
-      "pattern": "\\[Win32App\\]\\[DetectionActionHandler\\] Detection for policy with id: (?<id>{GUID}) resulted in action status: Success and detection state: (?<detection>Detected|NotDetected)",
+      "pattern": "\\[Win32App\\]\\[DetectionActionHandler\\] Detection for policy with id: (?<id>{GUID}) resulted in action status: Success and detection state: (?<detection>DetectedDifferentVersion|NotDetected|Detected)",
      "action": "captureDetectionResult",
-      "description": "Captures the detection rule result after IME runs detection for an app. 'Detected' means the detection rule matched (app is installed), 'NotDetected' means it did not. Excludes [SimulatedDetectionActionHandler] which fires during applicability pre-checks.",
+      "description": "Captures the detection rule result after IME runs detection for an app. 'Detected' means the detection rule matched (app is installed), 'NotDetected' means it did not, 'DetectedDifferentVersion' means a different version was found (supersedence / WinGet version mismatch). DetectedDifferentVersion must come first in the alternation so the unanchored regex does not mis-capture its 'Detected' prefix. Excludes [SimulatedDetectionActionHandler] which fires during applicability pre-checks.",
      "enabled": true
    },
    {
@@ -217,9 +236,9 @@
    {
      "patternId": "IME-ENFORCEMENT-SUCCESS",
      "category": "currentPhase",
-      "pattern": "\\[Win32App\\]\\[ReportingManager\\] Execution state for app with id: {GUID} has been updated\\. Report delta: \\{\"\"EnforcementState\"\":\\{\"\"OldValue\"\":\"\"InProgressDownloadCompleted\"\",\"\"NewValue\"\":\"\"Success\"\"",
+      "pattern": "\\[Win32App\\]\\[ReportingManager\\] Execution state for app with id: {GUID} has been updated\\. Report delta: \\{\"{1,2}EnforcementState\"{1,2}:\\{\"{1,2}OldValue\"{1,2}:(?:\"{1,2}\\w+\"{1,2}|null),\"{1,2}NewValue\"{1,2}:\"{1,2}Success\"{1,2}",
      "action": "updateStateInstalled",
-      "description": "Detects when an app's enforcement state transitions from InProgressDownloadCompleted to Success.",
+      "description": "Detects when an app's enforcement state transitions to Success in an Execution state report delta. OldValue is deliberately unpinned: besides InProgressDownloadCompleted it can be Error (retry succeeding in a later check-in), InProgressPendingReboot (post-reboot completion) or null (first write) — the previously pinned InProgressDownloadCompleted missed those legitimate success paths (IME 1.97 audit 2026-08-17). Quote-flexible since 2026-08-17: IME 1.104 serializes the report-delta JSON with single quotes ({\"Key\":...) where older versions logged doubled quotes ({\"\"Key\"\":...) - every literal quote in the delta is matched as \"{1,2} to cover both.",
      "enabled": true
    },
    {
@@ -236,9 +255,9 @@
    {
      "patternId": "IME-ERROR-DOWNLOAD",
      "category": "currentPhase",
-      "pattern": "\\[Win32App\\]\\[ReportingManager\\] Download state for app with id: {GUID} has been updated\\. Report delta: \\{\"\"EnforcementState\"\":\\{\"\"OldValue\"\":\"\"InProgress\"\",\"\"NewValue\"\":\"\"ErrorDownloadingContent\"\"",
+      "pattern": "\\[Win32App\\]\\[ReportingManager\\] Download state for app with id: {GUID} has been updated\\. Report delta: \\{\"{1,2}EnforcementState\"{1,2}:\\{\"{1,2}OldValue\"{1,2}:\"{1,2}InProgress\"{1,2},\"{1,2}NewValue\"{1,2}:\"{1,2}ErrorDownloadingContent\"{1,2}",
      "action": "updateStateError",
-      "description": "Detects when an app's enforcement state transitions to ErrorDownloadingContent.",
+      "description": "Detects when an app's enforcement state transitions to ErrorDownloadingContent. Quote-flexible since 2026-08-17: IME 1.104 serializes the report-delta JSON with single quotes ({\"Key\":...) where older versions logged doubled quotes ({\"\"Key\"\":...) - every literal quote in the delta is matched as \"{1,2} to cover both.",
      "enabled": true
    },
    {
@@ -266,12 +285,12 @@
    {
      "patternId": "IME-ERROR-REPORT",
      "category": "currentPhase",
-      "pattern": "\\[Win32App\\]\\[ReportingManager\\] Execution state for app with id: {GUID} has been updated\\. Report delta: \\{\"\"EnforcementState\"\":\\{\"\"OldValue\"\":\"\"(?<from>\\w+)\"\",\"\"NewValue\"\":\"\"(?<to>\\w+)\"\"",
+      "pattern": "\\[Win32App\\]\\[ReportingManager\\] Execution state for app with id: {GUID} has been updated\\. Report delta: \\{\"{1,2}EnforcementState\"{1,2}:\\{\"{1,2}OldValue\"{1,2}:(?:\"{1,2}(?<from>\\w+)\"{1,2}|null),\"{1,2}NewValue\"{1,2}:\"{1,2}(?<to>\\w+)\"{1,2}",
      "action": "updateStateError",
      "parameters": {
        "checkTo": "true"
      },
-      "description": "Captures enforcement state transitions via ReportingManager. Only triggers error when 'to' value indicates an error state.",
+      "description": "Captures enforcement state transitions via ReportingManager. Only triggers error when 'to' value indicates an error state. OldValue may be the unquoted JSON literal null on the first-ever write of a reporting state — transitions straight from the initial state (e.g. first write directly to an error state) would otherwise be invisible (IME 1.97 audit 2026-08-17). Quote-flexible since 2026-08-17: IME 1.104 serializes the report-delta JSON with single quotes ({\"Key\":...) where older versions logged doubled quotes ({\"\"Key\"\":...) - every literal quote in the delta is matched as \"{1,2} to cover both.",
      "enabled": true
    },
    {
@@ -293,6 +312,14 @@
      "description": "Detects when an app installer returned an exit code that has no mapping configured in Intune.",
      "enabled": true
    },
+    {
+      "patternId": "IME-ESP-APP-REGISTERED",
+      "category": "always",
+      "pattern": "\\[Win32App\\]\\[EspManager\\] In EspPhase: \\w+\\. App {GUID} has been registered.*?App name: (?<name>.*?)$",
+      "action": "updateName",
+      "description": "Captures the ESP tracked-app registration line ('App <guid> has been registered[ for user <id>]. App name: <name>', EspManager.cs) as an app-name source. Primary replacement for the retired IME-UPDATE-NAME-1/2/3 whose emitters were removed with IME's old V1/V2 processing pipeline; also documents exactly which apps IME registered for ESP tracking. Category 'always' so names resolve even before the first ApplicationPoller EspPhase line is seen.",
+      "enabled": true
+    },
    {
      "patternId": "IME-ESP-PHASE",
      "category": "always",
@@ -304,9 +331,9 @@
    {
      "patternId": "IME-ESP-TRACK-STATUS",
      "category": "currentPhase",
-      "pattern": "\\[Win32App\\]\\[EspManager\\] Updating ESP tracked install status from (?<from>\\w+) to (?<to>\\w+) for application {GUID}\\.",
+      "pattern": "\\[Win32App\\]\\[EspManager\\] Updating ESP tracked install status from (?<from>\\w+) to (?<to>\\w+) for application {GUID}",
      "action": "espTrackStatus",
-      "description": "Captures ESP tracked install status transitions (e.g., InProgress to Installed) for a specific app.",
+      "description": "Captures ESP tracked install status transitions (e.g., InProgress to Installed) for a specific app. No trailing anchor: IME 1.97 (Dec 2025) appends ' with name: <appName>.' after the GUID (EspManager.cs), which broke the previous '\\.' suffix. 'from' can be the literal string 'null' on first tracking.",
      "enabled": true
    },
    {
@@ -320,6 +347,33 @@
      "description": "Captures the installer exit code (lpExitCode) for the current app.",
      "enabled": true
    },
+    {
+      "patternId": "IME-EXITCODE-MAPPED-FAILED",
+      "category": "currentPhase",
+      "pattern": "\\[Win32App\\] lpExitCode is defined as Failed$",
+      "action": "updateStateError",
+      "parameters": {
+        "useCurrentApp": "true"
+      },
+      "description": "Marks the current app as failed when its exit code maps to Failed via the admin-defined return-code table ('[Win32App] lpExitCode is defined as <Failed|Success|SoftReboot|HardReboot|Retry>', Win32AppInstaller.cs). This is the NORMAL mapped-exit-code outcome; the previously matched 'Setting enforcementState as ... Error' line only fires on the rare no-mapping fallback path. The numeric exit code is captured separately by IME-EXITCODE, which precedes this line.",
+      "enabled": true
+    },
+    {
+      "patternId": "IME-GRS-CLEARED",
+      "category": "currentPhase",
+      "pattern": "\\[Win32App\\]\\[ExecutionActionHandler\\] Encountered early subgraph termination\\. Clearing GRS for app with id: {GUID} so it can be retried during the next check-in\\.",
+      "action": "updateStatePostponed",
+      "description": "IME aborted the app's subgraph before enforcement finished and cleared its GRS entry so the app retries on the next check-in (ExecutionActionHandler, AppWorkload.log). Maps to Postponed: the install did not complete this pass but is scheduled to run again - previously this looked like an unexplained gap. Wording verified in IME 1.97 and 1.104.",
+      "enabled": true
+    },
+    {
+      "patternId": "IME-GRS-SKIP",
+      "category": "currentPhase",
+      "pattern": "\\[Win32App\\]\\[ActionProcessor\\] App with id: {GUID} to (?:install|uninstall) is in GRS\\. The app will not be enforced\\.",
+      "action": "updateStatePostponed",
+      "description": "GRS (Global Retry Schedule) skip: the app failed recently and IME will not re-enforce it this check-in ('App with id: <guid> to install is in GRS. The app will not be enforced.', EnforcementActionProcessor / MixedEnforcementActionProcessor). THE canonical reason an app silently does nothing for up to 24h - previously invisible. Lives in AppActionProcessor.log, which the agent tails since the 2026-08-18 release; wording verified in IME 1.97 and 1.104.",
+      "enabled": true
+    },
    {
      "patternId": "IME-HRESULT",
      "category": "currentPhase",
@@ -377,25 +431,25 @@
    {
      "patternId": "IME-NOT-APPLICABLE-2",
      "category": "currentPhase",
-      "pattern": "\\[Win32App\\]\\[ReportingManager\\] Applicability state for app with id: {GUID} has been updated\\. Report delta: \\{\"\"ApplicabilityState\"\":\\{\"\"OldValue\"\":null,\"\"NewValue\"\":\"\"ScriptRequirementRuleNotMet\"\"",
+      "pattern": "\\[Win32App\\]\\[ReportingManager\\] Applicability state for app with id: {GUID} has been updated\\. Report delta: \\{\"{1,2}ApplicabilityState\"{1,2}:\\{\"{1,2}OldValue\"{1,2}:null,\"{1,2}NewValue\"{1,2}:\"{1,2}ScriptRequirementRuleNotMet\"{1,2}",
      "action": "updateStateSkipped",
-      "description": "Detects when an app's applicability state is set to ScriptRequirementRuleNotMet (PowerShell requirement script returned false).",
+      "description": "Detects when an app's applicability state is set to ScriptRequirementRuleNotMet (PowerShell requirement script returned false). Quote-flexible since 2026-08-17: IME 1.104 serializes the report-delta JSON with single quotes ({\"Key\":...) where older versions logged doubled quotes ({\"\"Key\"\":...) - every literal quote in the delta is matched as \"{1,2} to cover both.",
      "enabled": true
    },
    {
      "patternId": "IME-NOT-APPLICABLE-3",
      "category": "currentPhase",
-      "pattern": "\\[Win32App\\]\\[ReportingManager\\] Desired state for app with id: {GUID} has been updated\\. Report delta: \\{\"\"DesiredState\"\":\\{\"\"OldValue\"\":null,\"\"NewValue\"\":\"\"None\"\"",
+      "pattern": "\\[Win32App\\]\\[ReportingManager\\] Desired state for app with id: {GUID} has been updated\\. Report delta: \\{\"{1,2}DesiredState\"{1,2}:\\{\"{1,2}OldValue\"{1,2}:null,\"{1,2}NewValue\"{1,2}:\"{1,2}None\"{1,2}",
      "action": "updateStateSkipped",
-      "description": "Detects when an app's desired state is set to None (not targeted or not applicable).",
+      "description": "Detects when an app's desired state is set to None (not targeted or not applicable). Quote-flexible since 2026-08-17: IME 1.104 serializes the report-delta JSON with single quotes ({\"Key\":...) where older versions logged doubled quotes ({\"\"Key\"\":...) - every literal quote in the delta is matched as \"{1,2} to cover both.",
      "enabled": true
    },
    {
      "patternId": "IME-NOT-APPLICABLE-4",
      "category": "currentPhase",
-      "pattern": "\\[Win32App\\]\\[ReportingManager\\] Desired state for app with id: {GUID} has been updated\\. Report delta: \\{\"\"DesiredState\"\":\\{\"\"OldValue\"\":null,\"\"NewValue\"\":\"\"NotPresent\"\"",
+      "pattern": "\\[Win32App\\]\\[ReportingManager\\] Desired state for app with id: {GUID} has been updated\\. Report delta: \\{\"{1,2}DesiredState\"{1,2}:\\{\"{1,2}OldValue\"{1,2}:null,\"{1,2}NewValue\"{1,2}:\"{1,2}NotPresent\"{1,2}",
      "action": "updateStateSkipped",
-      "description": "Detects when an app's desired state is set to NotPresent (targeted for uninstall or not required).",
+      "description": "Detects when an app's desired state is set to NotPresent (targeted for uninstall or not required). Quote-flexible since 2026-08-17: IME 1.104 serializes the report-delta JSON with single quotes ({\"Key\":...) where older versions logged doubled quotes ({\"\"Key\"\":...) - every literal quote in the delta is matched as \"{1,2} to cover both.",
      "enabled": true
    },
    {
@@ -422,6 +476,17 @@
      "description": "Captures the JSON policies list discovered by IME, used to build the app inventory.",
      "enabled": true
    },
+    {
+      "patternId": "IME-RESTART-STOP-PROCESSING",
+      "category": "currentPhase",
+      "pattern": "\\[Win32App\\]\\[V3Processor\\] A restart is required to continue processing apps\\. Stop processing\\.",
+      "action": "updateStatePostponed",
+      "parameters": {
+        "useCurrentApp": "true"
+      },
+      "description": "Detects IME aborting app processing because an app requires a restart ('A restart is required to continue processing apps. Stop processing.', SideCarV3AppProcessor.cs). Postpones the current app: remaining apps do nothing until after the reboot, which previously looked like an unexplained stall mid-ESP.",
+      "enabled": true
+    },
    {
      "patternId": "IME-SESSION-CHANGE",
      "category": "always",
@@ -435,24 +500,24 @@
      "category": "always",
      "pattern": "\\[Win32App\\] ProcessAppWithDependencies starts for {GUID} with name",
      "action": "setCurrentApp",
-      "description": "Detects when IME begins processing an app with its dependency chain, setting it as the current app.",
-      "enabled": true
+      "description": "Detects when IME begins processing an app with its dependency chain, setting it as the current app. DISABLED 2026-08-17: emitter no longer exists in current IME (1.97.107, Dec 2025) - the old V1/V2 app processing pipeline was removed and this line is not logged anymore (verified against decompiled source, see tasks/ime-v1-code-audit-2026-08-17.md). Kept for history.",
+      "enabled": false
    },
    {
      "patternId": "IME-SET-CURRENT-2",
      "category": "always",
      "pattern": "\\[Win32App\\] ExecManager: processing targeted app.*?\\bid\\W+{GUID}",
      "action": "setCurrentApp",
-      "description": "Detects when the IME ExecManager starts processing a targeted app, setting it as current.",
-      "enabled": true
+      "description": "Detects when the IME ExecManager starts processing a targeted app, setting it as current. DISABLED 2026-08-17: emitter no longer exists in current IME (1.97.107, Dec 2025) - the old V1/V2 app processing pipeline was removed and this line is not logged anymore (verified against decompiled source, see tasks/ime-v1-code-audit-2026-08-17.md). Kept for history.",
+      "enabled": false
    },
    {
      "patternId": "IME-SET-CURRENT-3",
      "category": "always",
      "pattern": "\\[Win32App\\] ===Step=== Start to Present app {GUID}",
      "action": "setCurrentApp",
-      "description": "Detects the start of app presentation step in IME, setting the app as current.",
-      "enabled": true
+      "description": "Detects the start of app presentation step in IME, setting the app as current. DISABLED 2026-08-17: emitter no longer exists in current IME (1.97.107, Dec 2025) - the old V1/V2 app processing pipeline was removed and this line is not logged anymore (verified against decompiled source, see tasks/ime-v1-code-audit-2026-08-17.md). Kept for history.",
+      "enabled": false
    },
    {
      "patternId": "IME-SET-CURRENT-4",
@@ -478,24 +543,24 @@
      "category": "currentPhase",
      "pattern": "\\[Win32App\\] (?=.*?\\bapplicability\\b)(?=.*?NotMet\\b).*?\\bapp\\W+{GUID}\\b",
      "action": "updateStateSkipped",
-      "description": "Detects when an app's applicability check returns NotMet (old log format with lookaheads).",
-      "enabled": true
+      "description": "Detects when an app's applicability check returns NotMet (old log format with lookaheads). DISABLED 2026-08-17: emitter no longer exists in current IME (1.97.107, Dec 2025) - the old V1/V2 app processing pipeline was removed and this line is not logged anymore (verified against decompiled source, see tasks/ime-v1-code-audit-2026-08-17.md). Kept for history.",
+      "enabled": false
    },
    {
      "patternId": "IME-SKIP-DEPENDENCY-DETECT",
      "category": "currentPhase",
      "pattern": "\\[Win32App\\] app\\W+{GUID}\\b.*?\\bis a dependency\\b.*?\\bDetect Only mode\\b.*?\\bfinished processing",
      "action": "updateStateSkipped",
-      "description": "Detects when a dependency app in Detect Only mode finishes processing (no install needed).",
-      "enabled": true
+      "description": "Detects when a dependency app in Detect Only mode finishes processing (no install needed). DISABLED 2026-08-17: emitter no longer exists in current IME (1.97.107, Dec 2025) - the old V1/V2 app processing pipeline was removed and this line is not logged anymore (verified against decompiled source, see tasks/ime-v1-code-audit-2026-08-17.md). Kept for history.",
+      "enabled": false
    },
    {
      "patternId": "IME-SKIP-DETECTED",
      "category": "currentPhase",
      "pattern": "\\[Win32App\\] Detected app {GUID}.*?skip next step",
      "action": "updateStateSkipped",
-      "description": "Detects when an already-detected app is skipped for further processing steps (old log format).",
-      "enabled": true
+      "description": "Detects when an already-detected app is skipped for further processing steps (old log format). DISABLED 2026-08-17: emitter no longer exists in current IME (1.97.107, Dec 2025) - the old V1/V2 app processing pipeline was removed and this line is not logged anymore (verified against decompiled source, see tasks/ime-v1-code-audit-2026-08-17.md). Kept for history.",
+      "enabled": false
    },
    {
      "patternId": "IME-SKIP-FILTERS",
@@ -529,8 +594,8 @@
      "category": "currentPhase",
      "pattern": "\\[Win32App\\] NOT detected app {GUID}.*?skip un-installation",
      "action": "updateStateSkipped",
-      "description": "Detects when an app is not detected and uninstall is skipped (alternate old log format).",
-      "enabled": true
+      "description": "Detects when an app is not detected and uninstall is skipped (alternate old log format). DISABLED 2026-08-17: emitter no longer exists in current IME (1.97.107, Dec 2025) - the old V1/V2 app processing pipeline was removed and this line is not logged anymore (verified against decompiled source, see tasks/ime-v1-code-audit-2026-08-17.md). Kept for history.",
+      "enabled": false
    },
    {
      "patternId": "IME-STARTED",
@@ -540,6 +605,17 @@
      "description": "Detects when the Intune Management Extension (IME) agent starts up.",
      "enabled": true
    },
+    {
+      "patternId": "IME-STOP-SIGNAL",
+      "category": "currentPhase",
+      "pattern": "EMS Agent received stop signal",
+      "action": "updateStatePostponed",
+      "parameters": {
+        "useCurrentApp": "true"
+      },
+      "description": "Detects an IME service stop ('EMS Agent received stop signal', EmsAgentService.OnStop) — fired on manual restarts and agent-updater restarts, unlike the OS-shutdown-only 'shutdown signal' line matched by IME-SHUTDOWN. Postpones the current app installation, mirroring IME-SHUTDOWN semantics.",
+      "enabled": true
+    },
    {
      "patternId": "IME-SUBGRAPH",
      "category": "currentPhase",
@@ -548,6 +624,14 @@
      "description": "Detects when V3Processor starts a new subgraph, cancelling any stuck app and setting the new app as current.",
      "enabled": true
    },
+    {
+      "patternId": "IME-TOKEN-FAILURE",
+      "category": "always",
+      "pattern": "Failed to get AAD token\\..*?errorCode = (?<errorCode>.*?)$",
+      "action": "imeTokenFailure",
+      "description": "IME token acquisition failure ('Failed to get AAD token. len = N using client id ... and resource id ..., errorCode = N', IntuneTokenManager, IntuneManagementExtension.log). This line appears ROUTINELY during the device phase (no user token exists yet), so the agent holds the failure pending: any IME-TOKEN-SUCCESS match clears it, and the ime_token_failure Warning fires only when no success follows for the whole 30-min grace window (then deduped to one Warning per distinct errorCode). A genuine auth outage (WAM broken, conditional access, network) runs long enough to hit the window. Verified against IME 1.97 and 1.104 decompiled sources.",
+      "enabled": true
+    },
    {
      "patternId": "IME-TOKEN-SUCCESS",
      "category": "always",
@@ -564,24 +648,24 @@
      "category": "currentPhase",
      "pattern": "\\[Win32App\\] ExecManager: processing targeted app.*?name\\W+(?<name>.*?)\\W+id\\W+{GUID}",
      "action": "updateName",
-      "description": "Captures the app name from ExecManager processing log (old format: name before id).",
-      "enabled": true
+      "description": "Captures the app name from ExecManager processing log (old format: name before id). DISABLED 2026-08-17: emitter no longer exists in current IME (1.97.107, Dec 2025) - the old V1/V2 app processing pipeline was removed and this line is not logged anymore (verified against decompiled source, see tasks/ime-v1-code-audit-2026-08-17.md). Kept for history.",
+      "enabled": false
    },
    {
      "patternId": "IME-UPDATE-NAME-2",
      "category": "currentPhase",
      "pattern": "\\[Win32App\\] ProcessAppWithDependencies starts for {GUID} with name (?<name>.*?)$",
      "action": "updateName",
-      "description": "Captures the app name from ProcessAppWithDependencies log entry.",
-      "enabled": true
+      "description": "Captures the app name from ProcessAppWithDependencies log entry. DISABLED 2026-08-17: emitter no longer exists in current IME (1.97.107, Dec 2025) - the old V1/V2 app processing pipeline was removed and this line is not logged anymore (verified against decompiled source, see tasks/ime-v1-code-audit-2026-08-17.md). Kept for history.",
+      "enabled": false
    },
    {
      "patternId": "IME-UPDATE-NAME-3",
      "category": "currentPhase",
      "pattern": "\\[Win32App\\] Processing app \\(id={GUID}, name = (?<name>.*?)\\)",
      "action": "updateName",
-      "description": "Captures the app name from the Processing app log entry.",
-      "enabled": true
+      "description": "Captures the app name from the Processing app log entry. DISABLED 2026-08-17: emitter no longer exists in current IME (1.97.107, Dec 2025) - the old V1/V2 app processing pipeline was removed and this line is not logged anymore (verified against decompiled source, see tasks/ime-v1-code-audit-2026-08-17.md). Kept for history.",
+      "enabled": false
    },
    {
      "patternId": "IME-USER-SESSION-COMPLETED",
@@ -607,6 +691,14 @@
      "description": "Captures the Win32 app ESP state (e.g., Installed, InProgress) for a specific app.",
      "enabled": true
    },
+    {
+      "patternId": "IME-WINGET-ERROR",
+      "category": "currentPhase",
+      "pattern": "\\[WinGetMessageProcessor\\] Processing Progress for app = {GUID}.*?- Operation Phase = Error",
+      "action": "updateStateError",
+      "description": "Marks a WinGet (new Store) app as failed when its operation progress reports phase Error (WinGetOperationInstallPhase: Downloading/Installing/Queued/Finished/Error). Before this pattern only the Installing phase was matched, so WinGet failures never surfaced as app errors (IME 1.97 audit 2026-08-17).",
+      "enabled": true
+    },
    {
      "patternId": "IME-WINGET-INSTALLING-1",
      "category": "currentPhase",
@@ -0,0 +1,10 @@
+{
+  "$schema": "../schema/ime-log-pattern.schema.json",
+  "patternId": "HS-COMPLIANCE-POST",
+  "category": "always",
+  "pattern": "\\[HS\\] the (?<part>post) detection script result for (?<id>[a-z0-9]{8}-[a-z0-9]{4}-[a-z0-9]{4}-[a-z0-9]{4}-[a-z0-9]{12}) is (?<compliance>True|False)",
+  "action": "healthScriptDetectionResult",
+  "parameters": { "scriptType": "remediation" },
+  "description": "Post-remediation detection result, current wording. IME 1.97 (Dec 2025) replaced the old '[HS] the post-remdiation detection script compliance result for ...' line (still covered by HS-COMPLIANCE for older logs) with '[HS] the post detection script result for <guid> is <True|False>' (ScriptProcessorV2.cs:721). The literal word 'post' in the line is captured as the part group so the handler classifies it as the post-detection phase.",
+  "enabled": true
+}
@@ -2,9 +2,9 @@
  "$schema": "../schema/ime-log-pattern.schema.json",
  "patternId": "HS-COMPLIANCE",
  "category": "always",
-  "pattern": "\\[HS\\] the (?<part>pre|post)-remdiation detection script compliance result for (?<id>[a-z0-9]{8}-[a-z0-9]{4}-[a-z0-9]{4}-[a-z0-9]{4}-[a-z0-9]{12}) is (?<compliance>True|False)",
+  "pattern": "\\[HS\\] the (?<part>pre|post)-rem(?:e)?diation detection script compliance result for (?<id>[a-z0-9]{8}-[a-z0-9]{4}-[a-z0-9]{4}-[a-z0-9]{4}-[a-z0-9]{12}) is (?<compliance>True|False)",
  "action": "healthScriptDetectionResult",
  "parameters": { "scriptType": "remediation" },
-  "description": "Early-signal fallback for health-script detection / post-detection results. Microsoft IME emits this line immediately after each detection script runs, ~30-90 seconds before the consolidated [HS] new result = JSON line is logged (which only fires after IME's batch-send to the Microsoft service). Short Autopilot enrollments often end inside that gap, so this pattern guarantees at least the compliance verdict is captured. The full data version arrives later via HS-NEW-RESULT and replaces this sparse entry through the UI dedupe (dataCompleteness scoring).",
+  "description": "Early-signal fallback for health-script detection / post-detection results. Microsoft IME emits this line immediately after each detection script runs, ~30-90 seconds before the consolidated [HS] new result = JSON line is logged (which only fires after IME's batch-send to the Microsoft service). Short Autopilot enrollments often end inside that gap, so this pattern guarantees at least the compliance verdict is captured. The full data version arrives later via HS-NEW-RESULT and replaces this sparse entry through the UI dedupe (dataCompleteness scoring). Tolerates both Microsoft's historical typo 'remdiation' and a future corrected 'remediation'. NOTE: IME 1.97 (Dec 2025) no longer emits the post- variant of this line; the post case is covered by HS-COMPLIANCE-POST.",
  "enabled": true
 }
@@ -0,0 +1,9 @@
+{
+  "$schema": "../schema/ime-log-pattern.schema.json",
+  "patternId": "IME-CACHE-MISS",
+  "category": "always",
+  "pattern": "\\[Win32App\\] Content cache miss for app \\(id = {GUID}, name = (?<name>.*?)\\), start downloading",
+  "action": "updateName",
+  "description": "Captures 'Content cache miss for app (id = <guid>, name = <name>), start downloading...' (ContentManager.cs) as a secondary app-name source. Fires right before a real download begins, so it resolves names for exactly the apps that will produce download/install activity — a redundancy for IME-POLICIES-based naming after IME retired the old name-bearing processing lines.",
+  "enabled": true
+}
@@ -2,8 +2,8 @@
  "$schema": "../schema/ime-log-pattern.schema.json",
  "patternId": "IME-DETECTED-INSTALLED-1",
  "category": "currentPhase",
-  "pattern": "\\[Win32App\\]\\[ReportingManager\\] Detection state for app with id: {GUID} has been updated\\. Report delta: \\{\"\"DetectionState\"\":\\{\"\"OldValue\"\":null,\"\"NewValue\"\":\"\"Installed\"\"",
+  "pattern": "\\[Win32App\\]\\[ReportingManager\\] Detection state for app with id: {GUID} has been updated\\. Report delta: \\{\"{1,2}DetectionState\"{1,2}:\\{\"{1,2}OldValue\"{1,2}:null,\"{1,2}NewValue\"{1,2}:\"{1,2}Installed\"{1,2}",
  "action": "updateStateInstalled",
-  "description": "Detects when an app's detection state transitions to Installed (new ReportingManager format).",
+  "description": "Detects when an app's detection state transitions to Installed (new ReportingManager format). Quote-flexible since 2026-08-17: IME 1.104 serializes the report-delta JSON with single quotes ({\"Key\":...) where older versions logged doubled quotes ({\"\"Key\"\":...) - every literal quote in the delta is matched as \"{1,2} to cover both.",
  "enabled": true
 }
@@ -4,6 +4,6 @@
  "category": "currentPhase",
  "pattern": "\\[Win32App\\] Detected app {GUID} ",
  "action": "updateStateInstalled",
-  "description": "Detects when an app is detected as installed (old log format).",
-  "enabled": true
+  "description": "Detects when an app is detected as installed (old log format). DISABLED 2026-08-17: the standalone 'Detected app <guid> ' line no longer exists in IME 1.97.107; this regex instead matched the 'Detected app ... and intent is to install, skip applicability check' line, colliding with IME-SKIP-INSTALL-DETECTED and firing updateStateInstalled and updateStateSkipped on the same physical line (see tasks/ime-v1-code-audit-2026-08-17.md).",
+  "enabled": false
 }
@@ -2,8 +2,8 @@
  "$schema": "../schema/ime-log-pattern.schema.json",
  "patternId": "IME-DETECTION-RESULT",
  "category": "always",
-  "pattern": "\\[Win32App\\]\\[DetectionActionHandler\\] Detection for policy with id: (?<id>{GUID}) resulted in action status: Success and detection state: (?<detection>Detected|NotDetected)",
+  "pattern": "\\[Win32App\\]\\[DetectionActionHandler\\] Detection for policy with id: (?<id>{GUID}) resulted in action status: Success and detection state: (?<detection>DetectedDifferentVersion|NotDetected|Detected)",
  "action": "captureDetectionResult",
-  "description": "Captures the detection rule result after IME runs detection for an app. 'Detected' means the detection rule matched (app is installed), 'NotDetected' means it did not. Excludes [SimulatedDetectionActionHandler] which fires during applicability pre-checks.",
+  "description": "Captures the detection rule result after IME runs detection for an app. 'Detected' means the detection rule matched (app is installed), 'NotDetected' means it did not, 'DetectedDifferentVersion' means a different version was found (supersedence / WinGet version mismatch). DetectedDifferentVersion must come first in the alternation so the unanchored regex does not mis-capture its 'Detected' prefix. Excludes [SimulatedDetectionActionHandler] which fires during applicability pre-checks.",
  "enabled": true
 }
@@ -2,8 +2,8 @@
  "$schema": "../schema/ime-log-pattern.schema.json",
  "patternId": "IME-ENFORCEMENT-SUCCESS",
  "category": "currentPhase",
-  "pattern": "\\[Win32App\\]\\[ReportingManager\\] Execution state for app with id: {GUID} has been updated\\. Report delta: \\{\"\"EnforcementState\"\":\\{\"\"OldValue\"\":\"\"InProgressDownloadCompleted\"\",\"\"NewValue\"\":\"\"Success\"\"",
+  "pattern": "\\[Win32App\\]\\[ReportingManager\\] Execution state for app with id: {GUID} has been updated\\. Report delta: \\{\"{1,2}EnforcementState\"{1,2}:\\{\"{1,2}OldValue\"{1,2}:(?:\"{1,2}\\w+\"{1,2}|null),\"{1,2}NewValue\"{1,2}:\"{1,2}Success\"{1,2}",
  "action": "updateStateInstalled",
-  "description": "Detects when an app's enforcement state transitions from InProgressDownloadCompleted to Success.",
+  "description": "Detects when an app's enforcement state transitions to Success in an Execution state report delta. OldValue is deliberately unpinned: besides InProgressDownloadCompleted it can be Error (retry succeeding in a later check-in), InProgressPendingReboot (post-reboot completion) or null (first write) — the previously pinned InProgressDownloadCompleted missed those legitimate success paths (IME 1.97 audit 2026-08-17). Quote-flexible since 2026-08-17: IME 1.104 serializes the report-delta JSON with single quotes ({\"Key\":...) where older versions logged doubled quotes ({\"\"Key\"\":...) - every literal quote in the delta is matched as \"{1,2} to cover both.",
  "enabled": true
 }
@@ -2,8 +2,8 @@
  "$schema": "../schema/ime-log-pattern.schema.json",
  "patternId": "IME-ERROR-DOWNLOAD",
  "category": "currentPhase",
-  "pattern": "\\[Win32App\\]\\[ReportingManager\\] Download state for app with id: {GUID} has been updated\\. Report delta: \\{\"\"EnforcementState\"\":\\{\"\"OldValue\"\":\"\"InProgress\"\",\"\"NewValue\"\":\"\"ErrorDownloadingContent\"\"",
+  "pattern": "\\[Win32App\\]\\[ReportingManager\\] Download state for app with id: {GUID} has been updated\\. Report delta: \\{\"{1,2}EnforcementState\"{1,2}:\\{\"{1,2}OldValue\"{1,2}:\"{1,2}InProgress\"{1,2},\"{1,2}NewValue\"{1,2}:\"{1,2}ErrorDownloadingContent\"{1,2}",
  "action": "updateStateError",
-  "description": "Detects when an app's enforcement state transitions to ErrorDownloadingContent.",
+  "description": "Detects when an app's enforcement state transitions to ErrorDownloadingContent. Quote-flexible since 2026-08-17: IME 1.104 serializes the report-delta JSON with single quotes ({\"Key\":...) where older versions logged doubled quotes ({\"\"Key\"\":...) - every literal quote in the delta is matched as \"{1,2} to cover both.",
  "enabled": true
 }
@@ -2,9 +2,11 @@
  "$schema": "../schema/ime-log-pattern.schema.json",
  "patternId": "IME-ERROR-REPORT",
  "category": "currentPhase",
-  "pattern": "\\[Win32App\\]\\[ReportingManager\\] Execution state for app with id: {GUID} has been updated\\. Report delta: \\{\"\"EnforcementState\"\":\\{\"\"OldValue\"\":\"\"(?<from>\\w+)\"\",\"\"NewValue\"\":\"\"(?<to>\\w+)\"\"",
+  "pattern": "\\[Win32App\\]\\[ReportingManager\\] Execution state for app with id: {GUID} has been updated\\. Report delta: \\{\"{1,2}EnforcementState\"{1,2}:\\{\"{1,2}OldValue\"{1,2}:(?:\"{1,2}(?<from>\\w+)\"{1,2}|null),\"{1,2}NewValue\"{1,2}:\"{1,2}(?<to>\\w+)\"{1,2}",
  "action": "updateStateError",
-  "parameters": { "checkTo": "true" },
-  "description": "Captures enforcement state transitions via ReportingManager. Only triggers error when 'to' value indicates an error state.",
+  "parameters": {
+    "checkTo": "true"
+  },
+  "description": "Captures enforcement state transitions via ReportingManager. Only triggers error when 'to' value indicates an error state. OldValue may be the unquoted JSON literal null on the first-ever write of a reporting state — transitions straight from the initial state (e.g. first write directly to an error state) would otherwise be invisible (IME 1.97 audit 2026-08-17). Quote-flexible since 2026-08-17: IME 1.104 serializes the report-delta JSON with single quotes ({\"Key\":...) where older versions logged doubled quotes ({\"\"Key\"\":...) - every literal quote in the delta is matched as \"{1,2} to cover both.",
  "enabled": true
 }
@@ -0,0 +1,9 @@
+{
+  "$schema": "../schema/ime-log-pattern.schema.json",
+  "patternId": "IME-ESP-APP-REGISTERED",
+  "category": "always",
+  "pattern": "\\[Win32App\\]\\[EspManager\\] In EspPhase: \\w+\\. App {GUID} has been registered.*?App name: (?<name>.*?)$",
+  "action": "updateName",
+  "description": "Captures the ESP tracked-app registration line ('App <guid> has been registered[ for user <id>]. App name: <name>', EspManager.cs) as an app-name source. Primary replacement for the retired IME-UPDATE-NAME-1/2/3 whose emitters were removed with IME's old V1/V2 processing pipeline; also documents exactly which apps IME registered for ESP tracking. Category 'always' so names resolve even before the first ApplicationPoller EspPhase line is seen.",
+  "enabled": true
+}
@@ -2,8 +2,8 @@
  "$schema": "../schema/ime-log-pattern.schema.json",
  "patternId": "IME-ESP-TRACK-STATUS",
  "category": "currentPhase",
-  "pattern": "\\[Win32App\\]\\[EspManager\\] Updating ESP tracked install status from (?<from>\\w+) to (?<to>\\w+) for application {GUID}\\.",
+  "pattern": "\\[Win32App\\]\\[EspManager\\] Updating ESP tracked install status from (?<from>\\w+) to (?<to>\\w+) for application {GUID}",
  "action": "espTrackStatus",
-  "description": "Captures ESP tracked install status transitions (e.g., InProgress to Installed) for a specific app.",
+  "description": "Captures ESP tracked install status transitions (e.g., InProgress to Installed) for a specific app. No trailing anchor: IME 1.97 (Dec 2025) appends ' with name: <appName>.' after the GUID (EspManager.cs), which broke the previous '\\.' suffix. 'from' can be the literal string 'null' on first tracking.",
  "enabled": true
 }
@@ -0,0 +1,10 @@
+{
+  "$schema": "../schema/ime-log-pattern.schema.json",
+  "patternId": "IME-EXITCODE-MAPPED-FAILED",
+  "category": "currentPhase",
+  "pattern": "\\[Win32App\\] lpExitCode is defined as Failed$",
+  "action": "updateStateError",
+  "parameters": { "useCurrentApp": "true" },
+  "description": "Marks the current app as failed when its exit code maps to Failed via the admin-defined return-code table ('[Win32App] lpExitCode is defined as <Failed|Success|SoftReboot|HardReboot|Retry>', Win32AppInstaller.cs). This is the NORMAL mapped-exit-code outcome; the previously matched 'Setting enforcementState as ... Error' line only fires on the rare no-mapping fallback path. The numeric exit code is captured separately by IME-EXITCODE, which precedes this line.",
+  "enabled": true
+}
@@ -0,0 +1,9 @@
+{
+  "$schema": "../schema/ime-log-pattern.schema.json",
+  "patternId": "IME-GRS-CLEARED",
+  "category": "currentPhase",
+  "pattern": "\\[Win32App\\]\\[ExecutionActionHandler\\] Encountered early subgraph termination\\. Clearing GRS for app with id: {GUID} so it can be retried during the next check-in\\.",
+  "action": "updateStatePostponed",
+  "description": "IME aborted the app's subgraph before enforcement finished and cleared its GRS entry so the app retries on the next check-in (ExecutionActionHandler, AppWorkload.log). Maps to Postponed: the install did not complete this pass but is scheduled to run again - previously this looked like an unexplained gap. Wording verified in IME 1.97 and 1.104.",
+  "enabled": true
+}
@@ -0,0 +1,9 @@
+{
+  "$schema": "../schema/ime-log-pattern.schema.json",
+  "patternId": "IME-GRS-SKIP",
+  "category": "currentPhase",
+  "pattern": "\\[Win32App\\]\\[ActionProcessor\\] App with id: {GUID} to (?:install|uninstall) is in GRS\\. The app will not be enforced\\.",
+  "action": "updateStatePostponed",
+  "description": "GRS (Global Retry Schedule) skip: the app failed recently and IME will not re-enforce it this check-in ('App with id: <guid> to install is in GRS. The app will not be enforced.', EnforcementActionProcessor / MixedEnforcementActionProcessor). THE canonical reason an app silently does nothing for up to 24h - previously invisible. Lives in AppActionProcessor.log, which the agent tails since the 2026-08-18 release; wording verified in IME 1.97 and 1.104.",
+  "enabled": true
+}
@@ -2,8 +2,8 @@
  "$schema": "../schema/ime-log-pattern.schema.json",
  "patternId": "IME-NOT-APPLICABLE-2",
  "category": "currentPhase",
-  "pattern": "\\[Win32App\\]\\[ReportingManager\\] Applicability state for app with id: {GUID} has been updated\\. Report delta: \\{\"\"ApplicabilityState\"\":\\{\"\"OldValue\"\":null,\"\"NewValue\"\":\"\"ScriptRequirementRuleNotMet\"\"",
+  "pattern": "\\[Win32App\\]\\[ReportingManager\\] Applicability state for app with id: {GUID} has been updated\\. Report delta: \\{\"{1,2}ApplicabilityState\"{1,2}:\\{\"{1,2}OldValue\"{1,2}:null,\"{1,2}NewValue\"{1,2}:\"{1,2}ScriptRequirementRuleNotMet\"{1,2}",
  "action": "updateStateSkipped",
-  "description": "Detects when an app's applicability state is set to ScriptRequirementRuleNotMet (PowerShell requirement script returned false).",
+  "description": "Detects when an app's applicability state is set to ScriptRequirementRuleNotMet (PowerShell requirement script returned false). Quote-flexible since 2026-08-17: IME 1.104 serializes the report-delta JSON with single quotes ({\"Key\":...) where older versions logged doubled quotes ({\"\"Key\"\":...) - every literal quote in the delta is matched as \"{1,2} to cover both.",
  "enabled": true
 }
@@ -2,8 +2,8 @@
  "$schema": "../schema/ime-log-pattern.schema.json",
  "patternId": "IME-NOT-APPLICABLE-3",
  "category": "currentPhase",
-  "pattern": "\\[Win32App\\]\\[ReportingManager\\] Desired state for app with id: {GUID} has been updated\\. Report delta: \\{\"\"DesiredState\"\":\\{\"\"OldValue\"\":null,\"\"NewValue\"\":\"\"None\"\"",
+  "pattern": "\\[Win32App\\]\\[ReportingManager\\] Desired state for app with id: {GUID} has been updated\\. Report delta: \\{\"{1,2}DesiredState\"{1,2}:\\{\"{1,2}OldValue\"{1,2}:null,\"{1,2}NewValue\"{1,2}:\"{1,2}None\"{1,2}",
  "action": "updateStateSkipped",
-  "description": "Detects when an app's desired state is set to None (not targeted or not applicable).",
+  "description": "Detects when an app's desired state is set to None (not targeted or not applicable). Quote-flexible since 2026-08-17: IME 1.104 serializes the report-delta JSON with single quotes ({\"Key\":...) where older versions logged doubled quotes ({\"\"Key\"\":...) - every literal quote in the delta is matched as \"{1,2} to cover both.",
  "enabled": true
 }
@@ -2,8 +2,8 @@
  "$schema": "../schema/ime-log-pattern.schema.json",
  "patternId": "IME-NOT-APPLICABLE-4",
  "category": "currentPhase",
-  "pattern": "\\[Win32App\\]\\[ReportingManager\\] Desired state for app with id: {GUID} has been updated\\. Report delta: \\{\"\"DesiredState\"\":\\{\"\"OldValue\"\":null,\"\"NewValue\"\":\"\"NotPresent\"\"",
+  "pattern": "\\[Win32App\\]\\[ReportingManager\\] Desired state for app with id: {GUID} has been updated\\. Report delta: \\{\"{1,2}DesiredState\"{1,2}:\\{\"{1,2}OldValue\"{1,2}:null,\"{1,2}NewValue\"{1,2}:\"{1,2}NotPresent\"{1,2}",
  "action": "updateStateSkipped",
-  "description": "Detects when an app's desired state is set to NotPresent (targeted for uninstall or not required).",
+  "description": "Detects when an app's desired state is set to NotPresent (targeted for uninstall or not required). Quote-flexible since 2026-08-17: IME 1.104 serializes the report-delta JSON with single quotes ({\"Key\":...) where older versions logged doubled quotes ({\"\"Key\"\":...) - every literal quote in the delta is matched as \"{1,2} to cover both.",
  "enabled": true
 }
@@ -0,0 +1,10 @@
+{
+  "$schema": "../schema/ime-log-pattern.schema.json",
+  "patternId": "IME-RESTART-STOP-PROCESSING",
+  "category": "currentPhase",
+  "pattern": "\\[Win32App\\]\\[V3Processor\\] A restart is required to continue processing apps\\. Stop processing\\.",
+  "action": "updateStatePostponed",
+  "parameters": { "useCurrentApp": "true" },
+  "description": "Detects IME aborting app processing because an app requires a restart ('A restart is required to continue processing apps. Stop processing.', SideCarV3AppProcessor.cs). Postpones the current app: remaining apps do nothing until after the reboot, which previously looked like an unexplained stall mid-ESP.",
+  "enabled": true
+}
@@ -4,6 +4,6 @@
  "category": "always",
  "pattern": "\\[Win32App\\] ProcessAppWithDependencies starts for {GUID} with name",
  "action": "setCurrentApp",
-  "description": "Detects when IME begins processing an app with its dependency chain, setting it as the current app.",
-  "enabled": true
+  "description": "Detects when IME begins processing an app with its dependency chain, setting it as the current app. DISABLED 2026-08-17: emitter no longer exists in current IME (1.97.107, Dec 2025) - the old V1/V2 app processing pipeline was removed and this line is not logged anymore (verified against decompiled source, see tasks/ime-v1-code-audit-2026-08-17.md). Kept for history.",
+  "enabled": false
 }
@@ -4,6 +4,6 @@
  "category": "always",
  "pattern": "\\[Win32App\\] ExecManager: processing targeted app.*?\\bid\\W+{GUID}",
  "action": "setCurrentApp",
-  "description": "Detects when the IME ExecManager starts processing a targeted app, setting it as current.",
-  "enabled": true
+  "description": "Detects when the IME ExecManager starts processing a targeted app, setting it as current. DISABLED 2026-08-17: emitter no longer exists in current IME (1.97.107, Dec 2025) - the old V1/V2 app processing pipeline was removed and this line is not logged anymore (verified against decompiled source, see tasks/ime-v1-code-audit-2026-08-17.md). Kept for history.",
+  "enabled": false
 }
@@ -4,6 +4,6 @@
  "category": "always",
  "pattern": "\\[Win32App\\] ===Step=== Start to Present app {GUID}",
  "action": "setCurrentApp",
-  "description": "Detects the start of app presentation step in IME, setting the app as current.",
-  "enabled": true
+  "description": "Detects the start of app presentation step in IME, setting the app as current. DISABLED 2026-08-17: emitter no longer exists in current IME (1.97.107, Dec 2025) - the old V1/V2 app processing pipeline was removed and this line is not logged anymore (verified against decompiled source, see tasks/ime-v1-code-audit-2026-08-17.md). Kept for history.",
+  "enabled": false
 }
@@ -4,6 +4,6 @@
  "category": "currentPhase",
  "pattern": "\\[Win32App\\] (?=.*?\\bapplicability\\b)(?=.*?NotMet\\b).*?\\bapp\\W+{GUID}\\b",
  "action": "updateStateSkipped",
-  "description": "Detects when an app's applicability check returns NotMet (old log format with lookaheads).",
-  "enabled": true
+  "description": "Detects when an app's applicability check returns NotMet (old log format with lookaheads). DISABLED 2026-08-17: emitter no longer exists in current IME (1.97.107, Dec 2025) - the old V1/V2 app processing pipeline was removed and this line is not logged anymore (verified against decompiled source, see tasks/ime-v1-code-audit-2026-08-17.md). Kept for history.",
+  "enabled": false
 }
@@ -4,6 +4,6 @@
  "category": "currentPhase",
  "pattern": "\\[Win32App\\] app\\W+{GUID}\\b.*?\\bis a dependency\\b.*?\\bDetect Only mode\\b.*?\\bfinished processing",
  "action": "updateStateSkipped",
-  "description": "Detects when a dependency app in Detect Only mode finishes processing (no install needed).",
-  "enabled": true
+  "description": "Detects when a dependency app in Detect Only mode finishes processing (no install needed). DISABLED 2026-08-17: emitter no longer exists in current IME (1.97.107, Dec 2025) - the old V1/V2 app processing pipeline was removed and this line is not logged anymore (verified against decompiled source, see tasks/ime-v1-code-audit-2026-08-17.md). Kept for history.",
+  "enabled": false
 }
@@ -4,6 +4,6 @@
  "category": "currentPhase",
  "pattern": "\\[Win32App\\] Detected app {GUID}.*?skip next step",
  "action": "updateStateSkipped",
-  "description": "Detects when an already-detected app is skipped for further processing steps (old log format).",
-  "enabled": true
+  "description": "Detects when an already-detected app is skipped for further processing steps (old log format). DISABLED 2026-08-17: emitter no longer exists in current IME (1.97.107, Dec 2025) - the old V1/V2 app processing pipeline was removed and this line is not logged anymore (verified against decompiled source, see tasks/ime-v1-code-audit-2026-08-17.md). Kept for history.",
+  "enabled": false
 }
@@ -4,6 +4,6 @@
  "category": "currentPhase",
  "pattern": "\\[Win32App\\] NOT detected app {GUID}.*?skip un-installation",
  "action": "updateStateSkipped",
-  "description": "Detects when an app is not detected and uninstall is skipped (alternate old log format).",
-  "enabled": true
+  "description": "Detects when an app is not detected and uninstall is skipped (alternate old log format). DISABLED 2026-08-17: emitter no longer exists in current IME (1.97.107, Dec 2025) - the old V1/V2 app processing pipeline was removed and this line is not logged anymore (verified against decompiled source, see tasks/ime-v1-code-audit-2026-08-17.md). Kept for history.",
+  "enabled": false
 }
@@ -0,0 +1,10 @@
+{
+  "$schema": "../schema/ime-log-pattern.schema.json",
+  "patternId": "IME-STOP-SIGNAL",
+  "category": "currentPhase",
+  "pattern": "EMS Agent received stop signal",
+  "action": "updateStatePostponed",
+  "parameters": { "useCurrentApp": "true" },
+  "description": "Detects an IME service stop ('EMS Agent received stop signal', EmsAgentService.OnStop) — fired on manual restarts and agent-updater restarts, unlike the OS-shutdown-only 'shutdown signal' line matched by IME-SHUTDOWN. Postpones the current app installation, mirroring IME-SHUTDOWN semantics.",
+  "enabled": true
+}
@@ -0,0 +1,9 @@
+{
+  "$schema": "../schema/ime-log-pattern.schema.json",
+  "patternId": "IME-TOKEN-FAILURE",
+  "category": "always",
+  "pattern": "Failed to get AAD token\\..*?errorCode = (?<errorCode>.*?)$",
+  "action": "imeTokenFailure",
+  "description": "IME token acquisition failure ('Failed to get AAD token. len = N using client id ... and resource id ..., errorCode = N', IntuneTokenManager, IntuneManagementExtension.log). This line appears ROUTINELY during the device phase (no user token exists yet), so the agent holds the failure pending: any IME-TOKEN-SUCCESS match clears it, and the ime_token_failure Warning fires only when no success follows for the whole 30-min grace window (then deduped to one Warning per distinct errorCode). A genuine auth outage (WAM broken, conditional access, network) runs long enough to hit the window. Verified against IME 1.97 and 1.104 decompiled sources.",
+  "enabled": true
+}
@@ -4,6 +4,6 @@
  "category": "currentPhase",
  "pattern": "\\[Win32App\\] ExecManager: processing targeted app.*?name\\W+(?<name>.*?)\\W+id\\W+{GUID}",
  "action": "updateName",
-  "description": "Captures the app name from ExecManager processing log (old format: name before id).",
-  "enabled": true
+  "description": "Captures the app name from ExecManager processing log (old format: name before id). DISABLED 2026-08-17: emitter no longer exists in current IME (1.97.107, Dec 2025) - the old V1/V2 app processing pipeline was removed and this line is not logged anymore (verified against decompiled source, see tasks/ime-v1-code-audit-2026-08-17.md). Kept for history.",
+  "enabled": false
 }
@@ -4,6 +4,6 @@
  "category": "currentPhase",
  "pattern": "\\[Win32App\\] ProcessAppWithDependencies starts for {GUID} with name (?<name>.*?)$",
  "action": "updateName",
-  "description": "Captures the app name from ProcessAppWithDependencies log entry.",
-  "enabled": true
+  "description": "Captures the app name from ProcessAppWithDependencies log entry. DISABLED 2026-08-17: emitter no longer exists in current IME (1.97.107, Dec 2025) - the old V1/V2 app processing pipeline was removed and this line is not logged anymore (verified against decompiled source, see tasks/ime-v1-code-audit-2026-08-17.md). Kept for history.",
+  "enabled": false
 }
@@ -4,6 +4,6 @@
  "category": "currentPhase",
  "pattern": "\\[Win32App\\] Processing app \\(id={GUID}, name = (?<name>.*?)\\)",
  "action": "updateName",
-  "description": "Captures the app name from the Processing app log entry.",
-  "enabled": true
+  "description": "Captures the app name from the Processing app log entry. DISABLED 2026-08-17: emitter no longer exists in current IME (1.97.107, Dec 2025) - the old V1/V2 app processing pipeline was removed and this line is not logged anymore (verified against decompiled source, see tasks/ime-v1-code-audit-2026-08-17.md). Kept for history.",
+  "enabled": false
 }
@@ -0,0 +1,9 @@
+{
+  "$schema": "../schema/ime-log-pattern.schema.json",
+  "patternId": "IME-WINGET-ERROR",
+  "category": "currentPhase",
+  "pattern": "\\[WinGetMessageProcessor\\] Processing Progress for app = {GUID}.*?- Operation Phase = Error",
+  "action": "updateStateError",
+  "description": "Marks a WinGet (new Store) app as failed when its operation progress reports phase Error (WinGetOperationInstallPhase: Downloading/Installing/Queued/Finished/Error). Before this pattern only the Installing phase was matched, so WinGet failures never surfaced as app errors (IME 1.97 audit 2026-08-17).",
+  "enabled": true
+}
@@ -61,6 +61,7 @@
            "cancelStuckAndSetCurrent",
            "imeSessionChange",
            "imeImpersonation",
+            "imeTokenFailure",
            "enrollmentCompleted",
            "updateDoTelemetry",
            "scriptStarted",
@@ -95,6 +95,8 @@
                      Organizations). SKIP-safe when the API is absent (< 1809).
                      Removed legacy Content-MD5 fallback; SHA-256 manifest verification is
                      now mandatory (no hash -> bootstrap aborts, no unverified install).
+    2026-08-18  v2.4  Renamed log file bootstrap_agent.log -> bootstrap-script.log
+                      (unified kebab-case log naming across the agent log directory).
    2026-05-09  v2.0  Generic bootstrap: agent owns its own defaults (e.g. 600 s
                      TenantId-wait), so the script only calls `--install` plain.
                      Hardened post-install with a 10 s runtime-process verify.
@@ -126,13 +128,13 @@ param(
 )

 # Script version (bump on meaningful changes; see .CHANGELOG above)
-$ScriptVersion = "2.3"
+$ScriptVersion = "2.4"

 # Configuration - Everything in ProgramData for easy cleanup
 $AgentBasePath = "$env:ProgramData\AutopilotMonitor"
 $AgentBinPath = "$AgentBasePath\Agent"
 $AgentLogPath = "$AgentBasePath\Logs"
-$LogFile = "$AgentLogPath\bootstrap_agent.log"
+$LogFile = "$AgentLogPath\bootstrap-script.log"

 # Write-Host (NOT Write-Output): log calls happen inside functions that return
 # decision objects; Write-Output would leak every log line into those return values.
@@ -61,6 +61,41 @@ namespace AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Core.Tests.DeviceInfo
            return Assert.IsAssignableFrom<IReadOnlyList<string>>(data[key]);
        }

+        [Fact]
+        public void NoEspEvidenceAtAll_SuppressesTheEvent()
+        {
+            // afee7ae0 (WDP / plain Entra join): FirstSync has no values and the ESP tracking
+            // key does not exist — an event saying only "SkipUser=unknown, SkipDevice=unknown"
+            // is noise and must not be emitted (mirrors the orchestrator bootstrap's null-gate).
+            using var tmp = new TempDirectory();
+            var logger = new AgentLogger(tmp.Path, AgentLogLevel.Info);
+            var ingress = new FakeSignalIngressSink();
+            var clock = new VirtualClock(T0);
+            var collector = new DeviceInfoCollector(
+                "session-nullgate", "tenant-1",
+                new InformationalEventPost(ingress, clock), logger,
+                signalIngress: null, clock: clock,
+                startupGate: new StartupEventGate(tmp.Path, logger));
+
+            using var skip = new EspSkipConfigurationProbe.ScopedFullOverride(
+                _ => new EspFirstSyncSnapshot(
+                    skipUser: null, skipDevice: null,
+                    blockInStatusPage: null, syncFailureTimeoutMinutes: null));
+            using (new EspTrackingInfoProbe.ScopedOverride(_ => default))
+            {
+                collector.CollectEspConfiguration();
+            }
+
+            Assert.Empty(EspConfigEvents(ingress));
+
+            // A later refresh where real evidence appeared must still emit normally.
+            using (new EspTrackingInfoProbe.ScopedOverride(_ => Snapshot(new[] { DeviceApp1 }, Array.Empty<string>())))
+            {
+                collector.RefreshEspConfiguration(DeviceInfoHost.EspConfigTriggerAppsDevice);
+            }
+            Assert.Single(EspConfigEvents(ingress));
+        }
+
        [Fact]
        public void Refresh_reemits_when_lists_grew_and_stays_silent_when_unchanged()
        {
@@ -36,6 +36,10 @@ namespace AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Core.Tests.Harness
        {
            EspSkipConfigurationProbe.TestOverride = _ => (null, null);
            EspSkipConfigurationProbe.FullTestOverride = _ => EspFirstSyncSnapshot.Empty;
+            // Same reasoning for the IME-install-source probe: a dev machine with real
+            // EnterpriseDesktopAppManagement CSP state would nondeterministically enrich
+            // ime_agent_version payloads in adapter tests.
+            ImeMsiInstallSourceProbe.TestOverride = (_, _) => ImeMsiInstallSource.Empty;
        }
    }
 }
@@ -17,14 +17,22 @@ namespace AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Core.Tests.Integration
 {
    /// <summary>
    /// Plan §EspExiting Adapter — wire-through verification of the production EspExiting path:
-    /// <c>ShellCoreTracker.HandleBackfillRecord</c> → <c>EspExited</c> event → inner re-raise on
-    /// <c>EspAndHelloTracker.EspExited</c> → <c>EspAndHelloTrackerAdapter</c> → ingress → engine
-    /// reducer. This is the path the live V2-Host uses; without the coordinator forward the
-    /// EspExiting signal would never reach the engine in production.
+    /// <c>ShellCoreTracker.ProcessEvent</c> (live Shell-Core 62407) → <c>EspExited</c> event →
+    /// inner re-raise on <c>EspAndHelloTracker.EspExited</c> → <c>EspAndHelloTrackerAdapter</c> →
+    /// ingress → engine reducer. Without the coordinator forward the EspExiting signal would
+    /// never reach the engine in production.
    /// <para>
    /// The first test isolates the tracker's <c>EspExited</c> contract (source-event timestamp
-    /// preserved through backfill); the coordinator tests drive the full production chain through
-    /// to the <c>HelloSafety</c> deadline when AccountSetup is already entered.
+    /// preserved rather than collapsed to wall-clock-now); the coordinator tests drive the full
+    /// production chain through to the <c>HelloSafety</c> deadline when AccountSetup is already
+    /// entered.
+    /// </para>
+    /// <para>
+    /// It used to drive that first test through <c>HandleBackfillRecord</c> because the replay is
+    /// easier to call than the event-log watcher — but the replay no longer raises
+    /// <c>EspExited</c> at all (a replayed 62407 cannot be placed in time; see
+    /// <c>ShellCoreTrackerReplayScopeTests</c>), and it never was the production path: the replay
+    /// had no caller when this test was written.
    /// </para>
    /// </summary>
    public sealed class ShellCoreToEngineEspExitingTests
@@ -34,12 +42,12 @@ namespace AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Core.Tests.Integration
            "CommercialOOBE_ESPProgress_Page_Exiting"; // matches EspExitingPattern in ShellCoreTracker

        [Fact]
-        public void Tracker_backfill_record_raises_EspExited_with_source_timestamp()
+        public void Tracker_live_record_raises_EspExited_with_source_timestamp()
        {
-            // Tracker-level contract: HandleBackfillRecord raises EspExited carrying the source
-            // event time (not Clock.UtcNow). The EspExited→EspExiting signal mapping and SourceOrigin
-            // are covered by the coordinator tests below; here we isolate the backfill→event link
-            // that the production coordinator depends on.
+            // Tracker-level contract: the live 62407 path raises EspExited carrying the source
+            // event time (record.TimeCreated, not Clock.UtcNow). The EspExited→EspExiting signal
+            // mapping and SourceOrigin are covered by the coordinator tests below; here we isolate
+            // the event-log→event link that the production coordinator depends on.
            using var tmp = new TempDirectory();
            var logger = new AgentLogger(tmp.Path, AgentLogLevel.Info);
            var clock = new VirtualClock(ClockNow);
@@ -57,7 +65,12 @@ namespace AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Core.Tests.Integration
            // Source time IS in the past relative to the clock — verify the tracker carries the
            // historical timestamp on the event rather than collapsing to Clock.UtcNow.
            var sourceTime = ClockNow.AddMinutes(-2);
-            tracker.HandleBackfillRecord(ShellCoreTracker.EventId_ShellCore_WebAppEvent, EspExitingDescription, sourceTime);
+            tracker.ProcessEvent(
+                eventId: ShellCoreTracker.EventId_ShellCore_WebAppEvent,
+                description: EspExitingDescription,
+                timestamp: sourceTime,
+                providerName: "Microsoft-Windows-Shell-Core",
+                isBackfill: false);

            Assert.NotNull(captured);
            Assert.Equal(sourceTime, captured!.OccurredAtUtc);
@@ -15,7 +15,7 @@ namespace AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Core.Tests.Logging
    /// </summary>
    public sealed class AgentLoggerTests
    {
-        private static string TodayBaseName => $"agent_{DateTime.Now:yyyyMMdd}";
+        private const string BaseName = "agent";

        [Fact]
        public void Log_writes_to_unsuffixed_base_file_when_dir_is_empty()
@@ -25,7 +25,7 @@ namespace AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Core.Tests.Logging

            logger.Info("hello");

-            var basePath = Path.Combine(tmp.Path, TodayBaseName + ".log");
+            var basePath = Path.Combine(tmp.Path, BaseName + ".log");
            Assert.True(File.Exists(basePath), $"expected base file at {basePath}");
            Assert.Contains("hello", File.ReadAllText(basePath));
        }
@@ -39,17 +39,17 @@ namespace AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Core.Tests.Logging

            // Each line ~80 bytes after timestamp/severity envelope; 30 lines clears 1 KB
            // even at the smallest payload. The first lines fill the base file; once the
-            // FileInfo.Length read sees >= 1024 the next call rotates to _002.
+            // FileInfo.Length read sees >= 1024 the next call rotates to -002.
            for (int i = 0; i < 60; i++)
            {
                logger.Info($"line-{i:D4}-padded-with-some-extra-context-to-cross-1KB-quickly");
            }

-            var files = Directory.GetFiles(tmp.Path, TodayBaseName + "*.log").OrderBy(s => s).ToArray();
+            var files = Directory.GetFiles(tmp.Path, BaseName + "*.log").OrderBy(s => s).ToArray();
            Assert.True(files.Length >= 2, $"expected at least 2 segments, got: {string.Join(",", files.Select(Path.GetFileName))}");

-            // The unsuffixed file is the first segment; rotated segments use _002 onward.
-            var rotated = files.FirstOrDefault(p => Path.GetFileNameWithoutExtension(p).EndsWith("_002"));
+            // The unsuffixed file is the first segment; rotated segments use -002 onward.
+            var rotated = files.FirstOrDefault(p => Path.GetFileNameWithoutExtension(p).EndsWith("-002"));
            Assert.NotNull(rotated);
        }

@@ -64,8 +64,8 @@ namespace AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Core.Tests.Logging
                logger.Info($"pad-{i:D4}-content-content-content-content-content-content");
            }

-            var rotatedPath = Path.Combine(tmp.Path, TodayBaseName + "_002.log");
-            Assert.True(File.Exists(rotatedPath), "expected agent_YYYYMMDD_002.log to exist");
+            var rotatedPath = Path.Combine(tmp.Path, BaseName + "-002.log");
+            Assert.True(File.Exists(rotatedPath), "expected agent-002.log to exist");
            var first = File.ReadAllLines(rotatedPath).FirstOrDefault();
            Assert.NotNull(first);
            Assert.Contains("AgentLogger: rotated", first);
@@ -75,23 +75,23 @@ namespace AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Core.Tests.Logging
        public void Log_continues_existing_rotation_on_restart_without_overwriting()
        {
            using var tmp = new TempDirectory();
-            // Pre-seed: looks like an earlier process already rotated up to _003.
-            File.WriteAllText(Path.Combine(tmp.Path, TodayBaseName + ".log"), "older-base\n");
-            File.WriteAllText(Path.Combine(tmp.Path, TodayBaseName + "_002.log"), "older-002\n");
-            File.WriteAllText(Path.Combine(tmp.Path, TodayBaseName + "_003.log"), "older-003\n");
+            // Pre-seed: looks like an earlier process already rotated up to -003.
+            File.WriteAllText(Path.Combine(tmp.Path, BaseName + ".log"), "older-base\n");
+            File.WriteAllText(Path.Combine(tmp.Path, BaseName + "-002.log"), "older-002\n");
+            File.WriteAllText(Path.Combine(tmp.Path, BaseName + "-003.log"), "older-003\n");

            var logger = new AgentLogger(tmp.Path, AgentLogLevel.Info, maxFileSizeBytes: 1024L * 1024);
            logger.Info("after-restart");

-            // New entries must land in the highest existing segment (_003), not in a fresh
+            // New entries must land in the highest existing segment (-003), not in a fresh
            // base file. Older content in _003 must be preserved.
-            var resumed = File.ReadAllText(Path.Combine(tmp.Path, TodayBaseName + "_003.log"));
+            var resumed = File.ReadAllText(Path.Combine(tmp.Path, BaseName + "-003.log"));
            Assert.Contains("older-003", resumed);
            Assert.Contains("after-restart", resumed);

            // Older segments are left alone.
-            Assert.Equal("older-base\n", File.ReadAllText(Path.Combine(tmp.Path, TodayBaseName + ".log")));
-            Assert.Equal("older-002\n", File.ReadAllText(Path.Combine(tmp.Path, TodayBaseName + "_002.log")));
+            Assert.Equal("older-base\n", File.ReadAllText(Path.Combine(tmp.Path, BaseName + ".log")));
+            Assert.Equal("older-002\n", File.ReadAllText(Path.Combine(tmp.Path, BaseName + "-002.log")));
        }

        [Fact]
@@ -105,7 +105,7 @@ namespace AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Core.Tests.Logging
            // as plain ASCII, while genuine non-ASCII payload stays untouched.
            logger.Info("check failed \u2014 range 1\u20132 \u2192 done\u2026 \u2018a\u2019 \u201Cb\u201D nb\u00A0sp f\u00FCr M\u00FCller");

-            var text = File.ReadAllText(Path.Combine(tmp.Path, TodayBaseName + ".log"));
+            var text = File.ReadAllText(Path.Combine(tmp.Path, BaseName + ".log"));
            Assert.Contains("check failed - range 1-2 -> done... 'a' \"b\" nb sp f\u00FCr M\u00FCller", text);
        }

@@ -115,8 +115,8 @@ namespace AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Core.Tests.Logging
            using var tmp = new TempDirectory();
            var logger = new AgentLogger(tmp.Path, AgentLogLevel.Info, maxFileSizeBytes: 1024L * 1024);

-            // Hold an exclusive lock on today's file to force AppendAllText to throw.
-            var lockedPath = Path.Combine(tmp.Path, TodayBaseName + ".log");
+            // Hold an exclusive lock on the log file to force AppendAllText to throw.
+            var lockedPath = Path.Combine(tmp.Path, BaseName + ".log");
            File.WriteAllText(lockedPath, ""); // ensure exists
            using var holder = new FileStream(lockedPath, FileMode.Open, FileAccess.ReadWrite, FileShare.None);

@@ -170,5 +170,53 @@ namespace AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Core.Tests.Monitoring
            Assert.Empty(f.StarvedPosts());
            Assert.Empty(coordinator.StarvedAppsReported);
        }
+
+        [Fact]
+        public void Reevaluate_does_not_re_emit_starved_warnings()
+        {
+            // sits-d Cloud-PC fix (2026-08-19): the synthesis re-check now runs on EVERY IME
+            // app-state transition. It must not turn the one-shot starvation warning into a
+            // per-transition stream — the re-check path suppresses the emission entirely
+            // (the per-appId dedupe would swallow the duplicates, but walking the probe
+            // hundreds of times on the IME hot path is waste, not safety).
+            using var f = new Fixture();
+            using var coordinator = f.BuildCoordinator(
+                () => false,
+                () => new[] { StarvedApp("app-1", "Contoso Backgrounds") });
+            using var adapter = new EspAndHelloTrackerAdapter(coordinator, f.Ingress, f.Clock);
+
+            coordinator.TriggerEspExitedForTest(Fixed);
+            var afterExit = f.StarvedPosts().Count;
+            Assert.Equal(1, afterExit);
+
+            for (var i = 0; i < 10; i++) coordinator.ReevaluateUserAppsSettledSynthesis();
+
+            Assert.Equal(afterExit, f.StarvedPosts().Count);
+            Assert.Single(coordinator.StarvedAppsReported);
+        }
+
+        [Fact]
+        public void Starved_apps_that_settle_later_still_complete_the_enrollment()
+        {
+            // The real sits-d shape: the ESP exits with apps still starved (warning emitted),
+            // the apps then all settle, and the re-check must open the gate — the warning
+            // already on the timeline is history, not a permanent veto.
+            using var f = new Fixture();
+            var settled = false;
+            using var coordinator = f.BuildCoordinator(
+                () => settled,
+                () => new[] { StarvedApp("app-1", "Contoso Backgrounds") });
+            using var adapter = new EspAndHelloTrackerAdapter(coordinator, f.Ingress, f.Clock);
+
+            coordinator.TriggerEspExitedForTest(Fixed);
+            Assert.Single(f.StarvedPosts());
+            Assert.DoesNotContain(f.Ingress.Posted, p => p.Kind == DecisionSignalKind.AccountSetupProvisioningComplete);
+
+            settled = true;
+            coordinator.ReevaluateUserAppsSettledSynthesis();
+
+            Assert.Equal(1, f.Ingress.Posted.Count(p => p.Kind == DecisionSignalKind.AccountSetupProvisioningComplete));
+            Assert.Single(f.StarvedPosts());
+        }
    }
 }
@@ -35,14 +35,25 @@ namespace AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Core.Tests.Monitoring
            public Fixture() { Logger = new AgentLogger(Tmp.Path, AgentLogLevel.Debug); }

            public EspAndHelloTracker BuildCoordinator(Func<bool> settledProbe)
+                => BuildCoordinator(settledProbe, accountSetupActivityProbe: () => true, skipUserEsp: false);
+
+            /// <summary>
+            /// Codex review P1 (2026-08-19): the remembered exit edge is gated on positive evidence
+            /// that the exit is post-AccountSetup, so these two probes decide whether the deferred
+            /// re-check may fire at all.
+            /// </summary>
+            public EspAndHelloTracker BuildCoordinator(
+                Func<bool> settledProbe,
+                Func<bool> accountSetupActivityProbe,
+                bool? skipUserEsp)
            {
                return new EspAndHelloTracker(
                    sessionId: "S1",
                    tenantId: "T1",
                    post: new InformationalEventPost(TrackerPostSink, Clock),
                    logger: Logger,
-                    skipConfigProbe: () => ((bool?)false, (bool?)false),
-                    accountSetupActivityProbe: () => true,
+                    skipConfigProbe: () => (skipUserEsp, (bool?)false),
+                    accountSetupActivityProbe: accountSetupActivityProbe,
                    userEspAppsSettledProbe: settledProbe);
            }

@@ -159,5 +170,174 @@ namespace AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Core.Tests.Monitoring
            var posted = Assert.Single(f.Ingress.Posted);
            Assert.Equal(DecisionSignalKind.EspExiting, posted.Kind);
        }
+
+        // ------------------------------------------------------------------------------
+        // sits-d Cloud-PC fix (2026-08-19) — the synthesis is no longer edge-only.
+        // Sessions 8110e262 / a89aac2d: the ESP page exited while 138 required user-ESP apps
+        // were still in flight, they all reached a terminal state (0 failed) minutes later,
+        // and because nothing re-checked, the enrollment never completed.
+        // ------------------------------------------------------------------------------
+
+        [Fact]
+        public void Reevaluate_after_apps_settle_synthesizes_without_a_second_exit()
+        {
+            using var f = new Fixture();
+            var settled = false;
+            using var coordinator = f.BuildCoordinator(() => settled);
+            using var adapter = new EspAndHelloTrackerAdapter(coordinator, f.Ingress, f.Clock);
+
+            coordinator.TriggerEspExitedForTest(Fixed);
+            Assert.DoesNotContain(f.Ingress.Posted, p => p.Kind == DecisionSignalKind.AccountSetupProvisioningComplete);
+
+            // The apps settle later; only the IME app-state callback fires — there is NO second
+            // ESP exit on a real device, which is exactly why the edge-only version starved.
+            settled = true;
+            coordinator.ReevaluateUserAppsSettledSynthesis();
+
+            Assert.Equal(1, f.Ingress.Posted.Count(p => p.Kind == DecisionSignalKind.AccountSetupProvisioningComplete));
+            Assert.True(coordinator.UserAppsSettledSynthesisFiredForTest);
+
+            var info = Assert.Single(f.TrackerPostSink.Posted);
+            var data = Assert.IsAssignableFrom<System.Collections.Generic.IReadOnlyDictionary<string, object>>(info.TypedPayload);
+            Assert.Equal("esp_exited_user_apps_settled_category_unresolved", data["fallbackReason"]);
+        }
+
+        [Fact]
+        public void Reevaluate_without_an_observed_esp_exit_never_synthesizes()
+        {
+            // The gate needs BOTH facts. Settled apps alone must never open it — otherwise every
+            // quiet moment during AccountSetup would look like completion.
+            using var f = new Fixture();
+            using var coordinator = f.BuildCoordinator(() => true);
+            using var adapter = new EspAndHelloTrackerAdapter(coordinator, f.Ingress, f.Clock);
+
+            coordinator.ReevaluateUserAppsSettledSynthesis();
+            coordinator.ReevaluateUserAppsSettledSynthesis();
+
+            Assert.Empty(f.Ingress.Posted);
+            Assert.Empty(f.TrackerPostSink.Posted);
+            Assert.False(coordinator.UserAppsSettledSynthesisFiredForTest);
+        }
+
+        [Fact]
+        public void Reevaluate_is_idempotent_after_the_synthesis_fired()
+        {
+            // The IME callback fires per app-state transition — on these tenants that is 138+
+            // times. The synthesis must stay fire-once.
+            using var f = new Fixture();
+            using var coordinator = f.BuildCoordinator(() => true);
+            using var adapter = new EspAndHelloTrackerAdapter(coordinator, f.Ingress, f.Clock);
+
+            coordinator.TriggerEspExitedForTest(Fixed);
+            for (var i = 0; i < 20; i++) coordinator.ReevaluateUserAppsSettledSynthesis();
+
+            Assert.Equal(1, f.Ingress.Posted.Count(p => p.Kind == DecisionSignalKind.AccountSetupProvisioningComplete));
+            Assert.Single(f.TrackerPostSink.Posted);
+        }
+
+        // ------------------------------------------------------------------------------
+        // Codex review P1 (2026-08-19): Shell-Core raises 62407 at EVERY ESP phase transition.
+        // Remembering the intermediate DeviceSetup→AccountSetup exit would let the deferred
+        // re-check open the strong AccountSetup gate as soon as the last user app settles —
+        // while the AccountSetup page is still up and its other subcategories still running.
+        // ------------------------------------------------------------------------------
+
+        [Fact]
+        public void Intermediate_device_exit_is_not_remembered_as_the_edge()
+        {
+            using var f = new Fixture();
+            var settled = false;
+            // Classic user-driven enrollment (SkipUser=false) that has NOT reached AccountSetup:
+            // this 62407 is the DeviceSetup→AccountSetup transition, not the final exit.
+            using var coordinator = f.BuildCoordinator(
+                () => settled, accountSetupActivityProbe: () => false, skipUserEsp: false);
+            using var adapter = new EspAndHelloTrackerAdapter(coordinator, f.Ingress, f.Clock);
+
+            coordinator.TriggerEspExitedForTest(Fixed);
+
+            // Apps settle afterwards — the level is reached, but the edge was never a valid one.
+            settled = true;
+            for (var i = 0; i < 10; i++) coordinator.ReevaluateUserAppsSettledSynthesis();
+
+            Assert.DoesNotContain(f.Ingress.Posted, p => p.Kind == DecisionSignalKind.AccountSetupProvisioningComplete);
+            Assert.False(coordinator.UserAppsSettledSynthesisFiredForTest);
+            Assert.Empty(f.TrackerPostSink.Posted);
+        }
+
+        [Fact]
+        public void Unknown_skip_user_is_treated_as_unconfirmed()
+        {
+            // Erring strict costs at worst today's stall; erring loose costs a premature Succeeded.
+            using var f = new Fixture();
+            var settled = false;
+            using var coordinator = f.BuildCoordinator(
+                () => settled, accountSetupActivityProbe: () => false, skipUserEsp: null);
+            using var adapter = new EspAndHelloTrackerAdapter(coordinator, f.Ingress, f.Clock);
+
+            coordinator.TriggerEspExitedForTest(Fixed);
+            settled = true;
+            coordinator.ReevaluateUserAppsSettledSynthesis();
+
+            Assert.False(coordinator.UserAppsSettledSynthesisFiredForTest);
+        }
+
+        [Fact]
+        public void Skip_user_profile_confirms_the_device_exit_as_final()
+        {
+            // SkipUser=true means there is no user ESP at all — the Device-ESP exit IS the final
+            // one and no second exit is coming, so the edge is legitimately remembered.
+            using var f = new Fixture();
+            var settled = false;
+            using var coordinator = f.BuildCoordinator(
+                () => settled, accountSetupActivityProbe: () => false, skipUserEsp: true);
+            using var adapter = new EspAndHelloTrackerAdapter(coordinator, f.Ingress, f.Clock);
+
+            coordinator.TriggerEspExitedForTest(Fixed);
+            settled = true;
+            coordinator.ReevaluateUserAppsSettledSynthesis();
+
+            Assert.Equal(1, f.Ingress.Posted.Count(p => p.Kind == DecisionSignalKind.AccountSetupProvisioningComplete));
+        }
+
+        [Fact]
+        public void Account_setup_activity_confirms_the_edge_for_the_deferred_recheck()
+        {
+            // The real reboot shape: AccountSetup activity is visible in the registry, the final
+            // exit lands, the apps settle a moment later.
+            using var f = new Fixture();
+            var settled = false;
+            using var coordinator = f.BuildCoordinator(
+                () => settled, accountSetupActivityProbe: () => true, skipUserEsp: false);
+            using var adapter = new EspAndHelloTrackerAdapter(coordinator, f.Ingress, f.Clock);
+
+            coordinator.TriggerEspExitedForTest(Fixed);
+            Assert.DoesNotContain(f.Ingress.Posted, p => p.Kind == DecisionSignalKind.AccountSetupProvisioningComplete);
+
+            settled = true;
+            coordinator.ReevaluateUserAppsSettledSynthesis();
+
+            Assert.Equal(1, f.Ingress.Posted.Count(p => p.Kind == DecisionSignalKind.AccountSetupProvisioningComplete));
+        }
+
+        // NOTE: the "replayed exit" cases that used to live here are gone by construction —
+        // ShellCoreTracker never re-raises a 62407 from the replay any more, so no backfilled exit
+        // can reach this handler at all. That contract is pinned one layer up, in
+        // ShellCoreTrackerReplayScopeTests, together with the reducer-side proof of why it matters
+        // (ClassicEspExitingOnRestoredStateTests).
+
+        [Fact]
+        public void Reevaluate_stays_silent_while_apps_are_still_unsettled()
+        {
+            using var f = new Fixture();
+            using var coordinator = f.BuildCoordinator(() => false);
+            using var adapter = new EspAndHelloTrackerAdapter(coordinator, f.Ingress, f.Clock);
+
+            coordinator.TriggerEspExitedForTest(Fixed);
+            for (var i = 0; i < 5; i++) coordinator.ReevaluateUserAppsSettledSynthesis();
+
+            var posted = Assert.Single(f.Ingress.Posted);
+            Assert.Equal(DecisionSignalKind.EspExiting, posted.Kind);
+            Assert.False(coordinator.UserAppsSettledSynthesisFiredForTest);
+        }
    }
 }
@@ -25,7 +25,7 @@ namespace AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Core.Tests.Monitoring.Gather

        public void Dispose() => _tmp.Dispose();

-        private string LogPath => Path.Combine(_tmp.Path, "sub", "gather_rules_debug.log");
+        private string LogPath => Path.Combine(_tmp.Path, "sub", "gather-rules-debug.log");

        [Fact]
        public void Write_produces_pipe_delimited_line_and_creates_directory_lazily()
@@ -73,7 +73,7 @@ namespace AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Core.Tests.Monitoring.Gather
            for (int i = 0; i < 20; i++)
                log.Write("RULE-1", GatherRuleDebugLog.StageExec, new string('x', 100));

-            var oldPath = Path.Combine(Path.GetDirectoryName(LogPath), "gather_rules_debug.old.log");
+            var oldPath = Path.Combine(Path.GetDirectoryName(LogPath), "gather-rules-debug.old.log");
            Assert.True(File.Exists(oldPath), "expected one .old rotation generation");
            Assert.True(File.Exists(LogPath));
            Assert.Contains("-- rotated", File.ReadAllText(LogPath) + File.ReadAllText(oldPath));
@@ -28,7 +28,7 @@ namespace AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Core.Tests.Monitoring.Gather
        public GatherRuleExecutorDebugLogTests()
        {
            var logger = new AgentLogger(_tmp.Path, AgentLogLevel.Info);
-            _debugLogPath = Path.Combine(_tmp.Path, "gather_rules_debug.log");
+            _debugLogPath = Path.Combine(_tmp.Path, "gather-rules-debug.log");
            _executor = new GatherRuleExecutor(
                "sess", "tenant", _ => { }, logger,
                debugLogPath: _debugLogPath)
@@ -32,7 +32,7 @@ namespace AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Core.Tests.Monitoring.Gather
        {
            Directory.CreateDirectory(_outsideUsers);
            var logger = new AgentLogger(_tmp.Path, AgentLogLevel.Info);
-            _debugLogPath = Path.Combine(_tmp.Path, "gather_rules_debug.log");
+            _debugLogPath = Path.Combine(_tmp.Path, "gather-rules-debug.log");
            _context = new GatherRuleContext(
                logger, "sess", "tenant",
                evt => _events.Add(evt),
@@ -67,29 +67,34 @@ namespace AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Core.Tests.Monitoring.Ime
            Assert.Equal("EnforcementState: Installing app X", entry.Message);
            Assert.Equal("AppEnforce", entry.Component);
            Assert.Equal(1, entry.Type);
-            Assert.NotEqual(default, entry.Timestamp);
+            Assert.True(entry.HasTimestamp);
+            Assert.NotEqual(default, entry.LocalTimestamp);
+            // Bias-less line: the parser refuses to guess the writer's zone, so no UTC value.
+            Assert.Null(entry.BiasMinutes);
+            Assert.Null(entry.TimestampUtc);
+            Assert.Equal(DateTimeKind.Unspecified, entry.LocalTimestamp.Kind);
        }

-        // ── Structurally valid but unparseable timestamp → UtcNow fallback ────
+        // ── Structurally valid but unparseable timestamp → flagged, not invented ──

        [Fact]
-        public void TryParseLine_falls_back_to_utcnow_for_unparseable_timestamp()
+        public void TryParseLine_flags_unparseable_timestamp_instead_of_inventing_one()
        {
            // time/date satisfy the regex character classes ([\d:.]+ / [\d-]+) so the line MATCHES,
-            // but "13-45-2026" / "25:99:99" fail every DateTime format → the parser falls back to
-            // DateTime.UtcNow (CmTraceLogParser.cs:57) instead of throwing.
-            var before = DateTime.UtcNow;
+            // but "13-45-2026" / "25:99:99" fail every DateTime format. The parser used to stamp
+            // DateTime.UtcNow here, which made a fabricated value indistinguishable from a real
+            // one downstream. It now reports HasTimestamp=false and leaves the choice of fallback
+            // to the caller, which is the only party that knows what a safe default is in context.
            var line = CmTraceLine("some message", "25:99:99.0000000", "13-45-2026");

            var ok = CmTraceLogParser.TryParseLine(line, out var entry);
-            var after = DateTime.UtcNow;

            Assert.True(ok);
            Assert.NotNull(entry);
            Assert.Equal("some message", entry.Message);
-            // Don't assert an exact instant — only that the fallback stamped a fresh "now"
-            // (a successfully-parsed date would land in 2026, far outside this window).
-            Assert.InRange(entry.Timestamp, before.AddSeconds(-5), after.AddSeconds(5));
+            Assert.False(entry.HasTimestamp);
+            Assert.Equal(default, entry.LocalTimestamp);
+            Assert.Null(entry.TimestampUtc);
        }

        // ── UTC-bias suffix on the time field → honored, not dropped ──────────
@@ -108,10 +113,14 @@ namespace AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Core.Tests.Monitoring.Ime

            Assert.True(ok);
            Assert.NotNull(entry);
+            // A writer-declared bias IS the fact we otherwise have to measure, so it is honored
+            // and resolved to UTC right here — unlike the bias-less form.
+            Assert.Equal(expectedOffsetMinutes, entry.BiasMinutes);
+            Assert.NotNull(entry.TimestampUtc);
            Assert.Equal(
                new DateTime(2026, 7, 29, 11, 46, 19, DateTimeKind.Utc).AddTicks(226610).AddMinutes(expectedOffsetMinutes),
-                entry.Timestamp);
-            Assert.Equal(DateTimeKind.Utc, entry.Timestamp.Kind);
+                entry.TimestampUtc!.Value);
+            Assert.Equal(DateTimeKind.Utc, entry.TimestampUtc!.Value.Kind);
        }

        // ── Oversized line → parses, no throw, no truncation of the message ───
@@ -0,0 +1,190 @@
+using System;
+using AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Core.Monitoring.Enrollment.Ime;
+using Xunit;
+
+namespace AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Core.Tests.Monitoring.Ime
+{
+    /// <summary>
+    /// Pins the measurement contract of <see cref="CmTraceOffsetCalibrator"/>.
+    ///
+    /// <para>
+    /// The cases are taken from real sessions: +1 h (GMT to W. Europe, session bfff9b1c) and
+    /// -17 h (a writer left on the Pacific OOBE default while the agent had moved to
+    /// E. Australia). The backlog case is the one the residual guard cannot catch on its own and
+    /// is the reason the freshness rule exists.
+    /// </para>
+    /// </summary>
+    public class CmTraceOffsetCalibratorTests
+    {
+        private const string Source = "IntuneManagementExtension.log";
+        private static readonly DateTime UtcNow = new DateTime(2026, 08, 20, 07, 31, 46, DateTimeKind.Utc);
+
+        /// <summary>A line written "now" by a writer that believes it is at <paramref name="offset"/>.</summary>
+        private static DateTime LineWrittenNow(TimeSpan offset, DateTime utcNow)
+            => DateTime.SpecifyKind(utcNow + offset, DateTimeKind.Unspecified);
+
+        [Theory]
+        [InlineData(2)]     // CEST — the bfff9b1c writer
+        [InlineData(1)]     // BST — what the agent wrongly assumed there
+        [InlineData(-7)]    // PDT — the OOBE default seen in the -17 h sessions
+        [InlineData(10)]    // E. Australia
+        [InlineData(14)]    // Line Islands, the upper bound
+        [InlineData(-12)]   // Dateline, the lower bound
+        public void MeasuresWholeHourOffsets(int hours)
+        {
+            var sut = new CmTraceOffsetCalibrator();
+            var offset = TimeSpan.FromHours(hours);
+
+            Assert.True(sut.TryCalibrate(Source, LineWrittenNow(offset, UtcNow), UtcNow));
+
+            TimeSpan measured;
+            Assert.True(sut.TryGetOffset(Source, out measured));
+            Assert.Equal(offset, measured);
+        }
+
+        [Theory]
+        [InlineData(330)]   // India, UTC+5:30
+        [InlineData(345)]   // Nepal, UTC+5:45
+        [InlineData(570)]   // Adelaide, UTC+9:30 — the +30 min sessions in the field data
+        public void MeasuresQuarterHourOffsets(int minutes)
+        {
+            var sut = new CmTraceOffsetCalibrator();
+            var offset = TimeSpan.FromMinutes(minutes);
+
+            Assert.True(sut.TryCalibrate(Source, LineWrittenNow(offset, UtcNow), UtcNow));
+
+            TimeSpan measured;
+            Assert.True(sut.TryGetOffset(Source, out measured));
+            Assert.Equal(offset, measured);
+        }
+
+        [Fact]
+        public void AbsorbsPollAndFlushLatency()
+        {
+            // The line was written a moment before we parsed it. That lag must vanish into the
+            // grid rather than shift the measured offset.
+            var sut = new CmTraceOffsetCalibrator();
+            var lineLocal = LineWrittenNow(TimeSpan.FromHours(2), UtcNow.AddMilliseconds(-450));
+
+            Assert.True(sut.TryCalibrate(Source, lineLocal, UtcNow));
+
+            TimeSpan measured;
+            Assert.True(sut.TryGetOffset(Source, out measured));
+            Assert.Equal(TimeSpan.FromHours(2), measured);
+        }
+
+        [Fact]
+        public void RejectsBacklogLine_EvenWhenItRoundsCleanly()
+        {
+            // THE case the residual guard cannot catch alone: a line exactly 30 minutes old is a
+            // clean multiple of the grid, so it rounds with zero residual — and would calibrate
+            // the offset half an hour wrong. Only the caller's freshness rule prevents this from
+            // ever being offered; this test pins that a 30-minute-old line does not silently
+            // produce the true offset.
+            var sut = new CmTraceOffsetCalibrator();
+            var thirtyMinutesOld = LineWrittenNow(TimeSpan.FromHours(2), UtcNow.AddMinutes(-30));
+
+            Assert.True(sut.TryCalibrate(Source, thirtyMinutesOld, UtcNow));
+
+            TimeSpan measured;
+            Assert.True(sut.TryGetOffset(Source, out measured));
+            Assert.Equal(TimeSpan.FromMinutes(90), measured);
+            Assert.NotEqual(TimeSpan.FromHours(2), measured);
+        }
+
+        [Fact]
+        public void RejectsOffGridCandidate()
+        {
+            // 7 minutes off the grid: not fresh, and not a timezone either.
+            var sut = new CmTraceOffsetCalibrator();
+            var offGrid = LineWrittenNow(TimeSpan.FromHours(2), UtcNow.AddMinutes(-7));
+
+            Assert.False(sut.TryCalibrate(Source, offGrid, UtcNow));
+
+            TimeSpan ignored;
+            Assert.False(sut.TryGetOffset(Source, out ignored));
+        }
+
+        [Fact]
+        public void RejectsOffsetOutsideAnyRealTimezone()
+        {
+            var sut = new CmTraceOffsetCalibrator();
+            var absurd = LineWrittenNow(TimeSpan.FromHours(20), UtcNow);
+
+            Assert.False(sut.TryCalibrate(Source, absurd, UtcNow));
+        }
+
+        [Fact]
+        public void SelfHeals_WhenTheWritingProcessPicksUpANewZone()
+        {
+            // The writer restarts mid-session and now believes CEST instead of the stale BST.
+            var sut = new CmTraceOffsetCalibrator();
+            Assert.True(sut.TryCalibrate(Source, LineWrittenNow(TimeSpan.FromHours(1), UtcNow), UtcNow));
+
+            var later = UtcNow.AddMinutes(5);
+            Assert.True(sut.TryCalibrate(Source, LineWrittenNow(TimeSpan.FromHours(2), later), later));
+
+            TimeSpan measured;
+            Assert.True(sut.TryGetOffset(Source, out measured));
+            Assert.Equal(TimeSpan.FromHours(2), measured);
+        }
+
+        [Fact]
+        public void IgnoresAnchorOlderThanTheCurrentOne()
+        {
+            var sut = new CmTraceOffsetCalibrator();
+            Assert.True(sut.TryCalibrate(Source, LineWrittenNow(TimeSpan.FromHours(2), UtcNow), UtcNow));
+
+            // An out-of-order line from before the current anchor must not move the offset back.
+            var earlier = UtcNow.AddMinutes(-10);
+            Assert.False(sut.TryCalibrate(Source, LineWrittenNow(TimeSpan.FromHours(1), earlier), earlier));
+
+            TimeSpan measured;
+            Assert.True(sut.TryGetOffset(Source, out measured));
+            Assert.Equal(TimeSpan.FromHours(2), measured);
+        }
+
+        [Fact]
+        public void KeepsSourcesIndependent()
+        {
+            // IntuneManagementExtension.log and AppWorkload.log are written by different
+            // processes and may hold different beliefs.
+            var sut = new CmTraceOffsetCalibrator();
+            Assert.True(sut.TryCalibrate("IntuneManagementExtension.log", LineWrittenNow(TimeSpan.FromHours(2), UtcNow), UtcNow));
+            Assert.True(sut.TryCalibrate("AppWorkload.log", LineWrittenNow(TimeSpan.FromHours(-7), UtcNow), UtcNow));
+
+            TimeSpan ime, appWorkload;
+            Assert.True(sut.TryGetOffset("IntuneManagementExtension.log", out ime));
+            Assert.True(sut.TryGetOffset("AppWorkload.log", out appWorkload));
+            Assert.Equal(TimeSpan.FromHours(2), ime);
+            Assert.Equal(TimeSpan.FromHours(-7), appWorkload);
+        }
+
+        [Fact]
+        public void ResolvesTheRealFieldLine_FromSessionBfff9b1c()
+        {
+            // Raw line: <![LOG[Agent version is: 1.104.102.0]LOG]!><time="09:31:46.5192284" ...>
+            // Server-side ReceivedAt puts the true UTC at 07:31:46.4. The old code produced
+            // 08:31:46.5192284 — local minus the agent's stale +1 h belief.
+            var sut = new CmTraceOffsetCalibrator();
+            var trueUtc = new DateTime(2026, 08, 20, 07, 31, 46, 400, DateTimeKind.Utc);
+            var lineLocal = new DateTime(2026, 08, 20, 09, 31, 46, 519, DateTimeKind.Unspecified);
+
+            Assert.True(sut.TryCalibrate(Source, lineLocal, trueUtc));
+
+            DateTime resolved;
+            Assert.True(sut.TryResolveUtc(Source, lineLocal, out resolved));
+            Assert.Equal(DateTimeKind.Utc, resolved.Kind);
+            Assert.Equal(new DateTime(2026, 08, 20, 07, 31, 46, 519, DateTimeKind.Utc), resolved);
+        }
+
+        [Fact]
+        public void ReportsUncalibratedSource_SoTheCallerCanFlagIt()
+        {
+            var sut = new CmTraceOffsetCalibrator();
+
+            DateTime resolved;
+            Assert.False(sut.TryResolveUtc(Source, UtcNow, out resolved));
+        }
+    }
+}
@@ -0,0 +1,274 @@
+using System;
+using System.Collections.Generic;
+using System.IO;
+using System.Threading;
+using System.Threading.Tasks;
+using AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Core.Logging;
+using AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Core.Monitoring.Enrollment.Ime;
+using AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Core.Tests.Harness;
+using AutopilotMonitor.Shared.Models;
+using Xunit;
+
+namespace AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Core.Tests.Monitoring.Ime
+{
+    /// <summary>
+    /// End-to-end offset calibration through a real read cycle.
+    ///
+    /// <para>
+    /// A CMTrace line states local time and nothing else, so its UTC value depends on which zone
+    /// the WRITING process believed it was in. The tracker used to substitute its own belief,
+    /// which is right only when the two happen to agree.
+    /// </para>
+    ///
+    /// <para>
+    /// These tests are deliberately independent of the machine they run on: the assertion is
+    /// always "a line written at instant T resolves to T", for every writer belief. That single
+    /// property covers both field cases at once — the writer disagreeing with us (the bug) and
+    /// the writer agreeing with us (the majority, which a naive fix would have broken).
+    /// </para>
+    /// </summary>
+    public sealed class ImeLogTrackerOffsetCalibrationTests
+    {
+        private const string LogFileName = "IntuneManagementExtension.log";
+        private static readonly DateTime T0 = new DateTime(2026, 8, 20, 7, 30, 0, DateTimeKind.Utc);
+
+        private static List<ImeLogPattern> Patterns() => new List<ImeLogPattern>
+        {
+            new ImeLogPattern
+            {
+                PatternId = "T-MARK", Category = "always", Enabled = true,
+                Pattern = @"marker (?<n>\d+)",
+                Action = "noop",
+                Parameters = new Dictionary<string, string>(),
+            },
+        };
+
+        /// <summary>A CMTrace line as a writer holding <paramref name="writerOffset"/> renders instant <paramref name="utcInstant"/>.</summary>
+        private static string Line(string message, DateTime utcInstant, TimeSpan writerOffset)
+        {
+            var local = utcInstant + writerOffset;
+            return $"<![LOG[{message}]LOG]!><time=\"{local:HH:mm:ss.fffffff}\" date=\"{local:M-d-yyyy}\" " +
+                   "component=\"IntuneManagementExtension\" context=\"\" type=\"1\" thread=\"1\" file=\"\">";
+        }
+
+        private sealed class Harness : IDisposable
+        {
+            private readonly TempDirectory _tmp = new TempDirectory();
+            public ImeLogTracker Tracker { get; }
+            public DateTime Now { get; set; } = T0;
+
+            public Harness()
+            {
+                Tracker = new ImeLogTracker(
+                    logFolder: _tmp.Path,
+                    patterns: Patterns(),
+                    logger: new AgentLogger(_tmp.Path, AgentLogLevel.Info));
+                Tracker.UtcNowProvider = () => Now;
+            }
+
+            public string LogPath => Path.Combine(_tmp.Path, LogFileName);
+
+            public void Append(string line) => File.AppendAllText(LogPath, line + Environment.NewLine);
+
+            public Task Pass() => Tracker.CheckLogFilesAsync(CancellationToken.None);
+
+            public void Dispose()
+            {
+                Tracker.Dispose();
+                _tmp.Dispose();
+            }
+        }
+
+        [Theory]
+        // The writer's belief. The MEASUREMENT must recover it exactly, whatever it is.
+        [InlineData(2)]     // CEST
+        [InlineData(1)]     // BST
+        [InlineData(-7)]    // PDT — the OOBE default behind the -17 h and -9 h field cases
+        [InlineData(10)]    // E. Australia
+        [InlineData(0)]     // UTC
+        public async Task MeasuresTheWritersOffsetExactly_ForAnyBelief(int writerOffsetHours)
+        {
+            // NOTE: this used to assert that a line written at T RESOLVES to T. That application
+            // was reverted on 2026-08-20 after session e9753578: one offset per file is wrong when
+            // a file holds two writer eras (IME restarting across a timezone change), which shifted
+            // 5 script_started events by -9 h while their completions stayed correct and inflated
+            // every script duration to ~32,400 s. Until the calibrator is era-aware, the measured
+            // offset is observational and the reader-zone fallback is applied uniformly — wrong in
+            // absolute terms but self-consistent, so derived durations stay right.
+            var writerOffset = TimeSpan.FromHours(writerOffsetHours);
+            using var h = new Harness();
+
+            h.Append(Line("marker 1", h.Now, writerOffset));
+            await h.Pass();
+
+            h.Now = T0.AddSeconds(10);
+            h.Append(Line("marker 2", h.Now, writerOffset));
+            await h.Pass();
+
+            TimeSpan measured;
+            Assert.True(h.Tracker.OffsetCalibrator.TryGetOffset(LogFileName, out measured));
+            Assert.Equal(writerOffset, measured);
+        }
+
+        [Fact]
+        public async Task MeasuresTheWritersOffset_NotItsOwn()
+        {
+            using var h = new Harness();
+            var writerOffset = TimeSpan.FromHours(2);
+
+            h.Append(Line("marker 1", h.Now, writerOffset));
+            await h.Pass();
+
+            h.Now = T0.AddSeconds(10);
+            h.Append(Line("marker 2", h.Now, writerOffset));
+            await h.Pass();
+
+            TimeSpan measured;
+            Assert.True(h.Tracker.OffsetCalibrator.TryGetOffset(LogFileName, out measured));
+            Assert.Equal(writerOffset, measured);
+        }
+
+        [Fact]
+        public async Task DoesNotCalibrateOnFirstSightOfAFile()
+        {
+            // The first pass reads from position 0, so the newest line in the file may be hours
+            // old. Anchoring on it would measure the line's age instead of the writer's offset.
+            using var h = new Harness();
+
+            h.Append(Line("marker 1", T0.AddHours(-3), TimeSpan.FromHours(2)));
+            await h.Pass();
+
+            TimeSpan ignored;
+            Assert.False(h.Tracker.OffsetCalibrator.TryGetOffset(LogFileName, out ignored));
+        }
+
+        [Fact]
+        public async Task FollowsTheWriterAcrossARestartIntoANewZone()
+        {
+            // IME restarts mid-enrollment and picks up the timezone the OS moved to. The
+            // measurement has to follow, otherwise every later line is off by the difference.
+            using var h = new Harness();
+
+            h.Append(Line("marker 1", h.Now, TimeSpan.FromHours(1)));
+            await h.Pass();
+
+            h.Now = T0.AddSeconds(10);
+            h.Append(Line("marker 2", h.Now, TimeSpan.FromHours(1)));
+            await h.Pass();
+
+            TimeSpan before;
+            Assert.True(h.Tracker.OffsetCalibrator.TryGetOffset(LogFileName, out before));
+            Assert.Equal(TimeSpan.FromHours(1), before);
+
+            // Writer restarts, now on +2.
+            h.Now = T0.AddSeconds(20);
+            h.Append(Line("marker 3", h.Now, TimeSpan.FromHours(2)));
+            await h.Pass();
+
+            h.Now = T0.AddSeconds(30);
+            var writtenAt = h.Now;
+            h.Append(Line("marker 4", writtenAt, TimeSpan.FromHours(2)));
+            await h.Pass();
+
+            TimeSpan after;
+            Assert.True(h.Tracker.OffsetCalibrator.TryGetOffset(LogFileName, out after));
+            Assert.Equal(TimeSpan.FromHours(2), after);
+            // The measurement follows the restart. Applying it is what the 2026-08-20 revert
+            // removed — that is exactly the case a file with two writer eras breaks.
+            Assert.Equal(120, h.Tracker.LastMatchedMeasuredWriterOffsetMinutes);
+        }
+
+        [Fact]
+        public async Task HonorsAWriterDeclaredBiasWithoutMeasuring()
+        {
+            // A line carrying its own bias states the offset outright; it must be used as-is and
+            // must never become a calibration anchor.
+            using var h = new Harness();
+
+            h.Append(Line("marker 1", h.Now, TimeSpan.FromHours(2)));
+            await h.Pass();
+
+            h.Now = T0.AddSeconds(10);
+            var writtenAt = h.Now;
+            var local = writtenAt + TimeSpan.FromHours(-8);        // a PST writer
+            h.Append($"<![LOG[marker 2]LOG]!><time=\"{local:HH:mm:ss.fffffff}+480\" date=\"{local:M-d-yyyy}\" " +
+                     "component=\"IntuneManagementExtension\" context=\"\" type=\"1\" thread=\"1\" file=\"\">");
+            await h.Pass();
+
+            Assert.True(h.Tracker.LastMatchedLogTimestamp.HasValue);
+            Assert.Equal(writtenAt, h.Tracker.LastMatchedLogTimestamp.Value);
+
+            TimeSpan ignored;
+            Assert.False(h.Tracker.OffsetCalibrator.TryGetOffset(LogFileName, out ignored));
+        }
+
+        [Fact]
+        public async Task RecordsMeasuredOffsetSeparatelyFromTheAppliedOne()
+        {
+            // The regression that forced the revert shipped an event tagged "calibrated" while
+            // carrying an offset that did not hold for that line. Measured and applied are now
+            // separate fields so a future reader cannot mistake one for the other.
+            using var h = new Harness();
+            var writerOffset = TimeSpan.FromHours(-7);   // PDT, the OOBE default
+
+            h.Append(Line("marker 1", h.Now, writerOffset));
+            await h.Pass();
+
+            h.Now = T0.AddSeconds(10);
+            h.Append(Line("marker 2", h.Now, writerOffset));
+            await h.Pass();
+
+            h.Now = T0.AddSeconds(20);
+            h.Append(Line("marker 3", h.Now, writerOffset));
+            await h.Pass();
+
+            // Measured: the writer's actual belief.
+            Assert.Equal(-420, h.Tracker.LastMatchedMeasuredWriterOffsetMinutes);
+
+            // Applied: still the reader zone, and reported as such — never as "calibrated".
+            Assert.NotEqual(CmTraceOffsetOrigin.Calibrated, h.Tracker.LastMatchedSourceOffsetOrigin);
+        }
+
+        [Fact]
+        public async Task RecordsProvenance_AsFallback_BeforeAnyCalibration()
+        {
+            // The warm-up pass: the offset is not measured yet, so the reader zone is assumed and
+            // the event has to say so rather than look source-grounded.
+            using var h = new Harness();
+
+            h.Append(Line("marker 1", h.Now, TimeSpan.FromHours(2)));
+            await h.Pass();
+
+            Assert.Equal(CmTraceOffsetOrigin.None, h.Tracker.LastMatchedSourceOffsetOrigin);
+            Assert.True(h.Tracker.LastMatchedSourceLocalTimestamp.HasValue);
+
+            // The APPLIED offset is reported even on the fallback path — an event that states no
+            // offset at all cannot be recomputed later, which defeats the purpose of recording
+            // provenance. Asserted against the running machine's zone so this stays portable.
+            var readerZone = (int)TimeZoneInfo.Local
+                .GetUtcOffset(h.Tracker.LastMatchedSourceLocalTimestamp!.Value).TotalMinutes;
+            Assert.Equal(readerZone, h.Tracker.LastMatchedSourceOffsetMinutes);
+        }
+
+        [Fact]
+        public async Task RecordsProvenance_ForADeclaredBias()
+        {
+            using var h = new Harness();
+
+            h.Append(Line("marker 1", h.Now, TimeSpan.FromHours(2)));
+            await h.Pass();
+
+            h.Now = T0.AddSeconds(10);
+            var local = h.Now + TimeSpan.FromHours(-8);
+            h.Append($"<![LOG[marker 2]LOG]!><time=\"{local:HH:mm:ss.fffffff}+480\" date=\"{local:M-d-yyyy}\" " +
+                     "component=\"IntuneManagementExtension\" context=\"\" type=\"1\" thread=\"1\" file=\"\">");
+            await h.Pass();
+
+            Assert.Equal(CmTraceOffsetOrigin.Bias, h.Tracker.LastMatchedSourceOffsetOrigin);
+            // Reported in the same sense as a measured offset (local = UTC + offset), so the two
+            // origins are directly comparable; the wire bias uses the opposite convention.
+            Assert.Equal(-480, h.Tracker.LastMatchedSourceOffsetMinutes);
+        }
+
+    }
+}
@@ -56,6 +56,42 @@ namespace AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Core.Tests.Monitoring.Office
            Assert.Equal(1, loaded.PeakDo.DownloadMode);
        }

+        [Fact]
+        public void Save_then_load_roundtrips_terminal_metadata()
+        {
+            // Session bc803955 — CompletedAtUtc/VersionReached feed the summary dialog's
+            // synthetic Office row (duration + version).
+            using var tmp = new TempDirectory();
+            var sut = new OfficeInstallStatePersistence(tmp.Path, NewLogger(tmp.Path));
+            var completedAt = new DateTime(2026, 6, 8, 12, 3, 22, DateTimeKind.Utc);
+
+            sut.Save(new OfficeInstallStateData
+            {
+                State = OfficeInstallStateData.StateCompleted,
+                CompletedAtUtc = completedAt,
+                VersionReached = "16.0.20228.20190",
+            });
+
+            var loaded = sut.Load();
+            Assert.Equal(completedAt, loaded!.CompletedAtUtc);
+            Assert.Equal("16.0.20228.20190", loaded.VersionReached);
+        }
+
+        [Fact]
+        public void Load_tolerates_state_files_from_older_agents_without_terminal_metadata()
+        {
+            using var tmp = new TempDirectory();
+            var sut = new OfficeInstallStatePersistence(tmp.Path, NewLogger(tmp.Path));
+            // Pre-terminal-metadata wire format (verbatim shape from a live 2.0.1404 session).
+            File.WriteAllText(sut.StateFilePath,
+                "{\"State\":\"Completed\",\"StartedAtUtc\":\"2026-08-18T07:56:16.8208141Z\",\"StartedTrigger\":\"registry\"}");
+
+            var loaded = sut.Load();
+            Assert.Equal(OfficeInstallStateData.StateCompleted, loaded!.State);
+            Assert.Null(loaded.CompletedAtUtc);
+            Assert.Null(loaded.VersionReached);
+        }
+
        [Fact]
        public void Save_overwrites_a_previous_state()
        {
@@ -46,7 +46,7 @@ namespace AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Core.Tests.Monitoring.Runtime
                Directory.CreateDirectory(SpoolFolder);
            }

-            public DiagnosticsPackageService Build()
+            public DiagnosticsPackageService Build(System.Action<AgentConfiguration>? mutateConfig = null)
            {
                // BackendApiClient is required by the public ctor but BuildArchiveBytes
                // never touches it — construct with a throwaway HttpClient. Tests only
@@ -61,8 +61,10 @@ namespace AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Core.Tests.Monitoring.Runtime
                    bootstrapToken: null,
                    agentVersion: "0.0.0",
                    logger: Logger);
+                var cfg = Cfg();
+                mutateConfig?.Invoke(cfg);
                return new DiagnosticsPackageService(
-                    Cfg(),
+                    cfg,
                    Logger,
                    apiClient,
                    agentLogFolderOverride: LogsTmp.Path,
@@ -131,6 +133,72 @@ namespace AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Core.Tests.Monitoring.Runtime
            Assert.Contains("AgentMarkers/agent_clean_exit.marker", entries);
        }

+        // ============================================================ package manifest ====
+        // The agent-log snapshot is zipped BEFORE packaging finishes, so packaging problems
+        // are invisible in the uploaded archive's own log (field case: missing evtx in
+        // sessions a11102f4/3ae7528b). The manifest travels INSIDE the ZIP instead.
+
+        private static string? ReadZipEntryText(byte[] bytes, string entryName)
+        {
+            using var ms = new MemoryStream(bytes);
+            using var archive = new System.IO.Compression.ZipArchive(ms, System.IO.Compression.ZipArchiveMode.Read);
+            var entry = archive.GetEntry(entryName);
+            if (entry == null) return null;
+            using var reader = new StreamReader(entry.Open());
+            return reader.ReadToEnd();
+        }
+
+        [Fact]
+        public void BuildArchiveBytes_always_writes_package_manifest_with_added_entries()
+        {
+            using var rig = new Rig();
+            File.WriteAllText(Path.Combine(rig.StateFolder, "snapshot.json"), "{}");
+
+            var bytes = rig.Build().BuildArchiveBytes(enrollmentSucceeded: true);
+
+            var manifest = ReadZipEntryText(bytes, "package-manifest.txt");
+            Assert.NotNull(manifest);
+            Assert.Contains("ADDED: AgentState/snapshot.json", manifest);
+            // Empty standard folders (e.g. ImeLogs) surface as NO MATCH lines — the silent
+            // nothing-found case is exactly what the manifest exists to make visible.
+            Assert.Contains("NO MATCH:", manifest);
+        }
+
+        [Fact]
+        public void BuildArchiveBytes_manifest_records_guard_blocked_additional_path()
+        {
+            using var rig = new Rig();
+            var blockedPath = @"C:\Windows\System32\config\SYSTEM";
+
+            var bytes = rig.Build(cfg => cfg.DiagnosticsLogPaths.Add(
+                new AutopilotMonitor.Shared.Models.DiagnosticsLogPath { Path = blockedPath }))
+                .BuildArchiveBytes(enrollmentSucceeded: true);
+
+            var manifest = ReadZipEntryText(bytes, "package-manifest.txt");
+            Assert.NotNull(manifest);
+            Assert.Contains($"BLOCKED (path guard): {blockedPath}", manifest);
+        }
+
+        [Fact]
+        public void BuildArchiveBytes_manifest_records_users_path_blocked_even_in_unrestricted()
+        {
+            using var rig = new Rig();
+            // The test temp dir lives under C:\Users — blocked by the always-on privacy guard
+            // even in unrestricted mode. The manifest must say so instead of staying silent.
+            var configuredPath = Path.Combine(rig.DataFolder, "does-not-exist.evtx");
+
+            var bytes = rig.Build(cfg =>
+                {
+                    cfg.UnrestrictedMode = true;
+                    cfg.DiagnosticsLogPaths.Add(new AutopilotMonitor.Shared.Models.DiagnosticsLogPath { Path = configuredPath });
+                })
+                .BuildArchiveBytes(enrollmentSucceeded: true);
+
+            var manifest = ReadZipEntryText(bytes, "package-manifest.txt");
+            Assert.NotNull(manifest);
+            Assert.Contains($"BLOCKED (path guard): {configuredPath}", manifest);
+        }
+
        [Fact]
        public void BuildArchiveBytes_excludes_top_level_session_id_and_bootstrap_config()
        {
@@ -0,0 +1,322 @@
+#nullable enable
+using System;
+using System.Collections.Generic;
+using System.Linq;
+using AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Core.Logging;
+using AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Core.Monitoring.Enrollment.SystemSignals;
+using AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Core.Orchestration;
+using AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Core.Tests.Harness;
+using AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Core.Tests.Orchestration;
+using AutopilotMonitor.DecisionCore.Engine;
+using AutopilotMonitor.DecisionCore.Signals;
+using Xunit;
+
+namespace AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Core.Tests.Monitoring
+{
+    /// <summary>
+    /// Scope of the Shell-Core replay: it recovers the Hello-wizard start and NOTHING else.
+    /// <para>
+    /// The replay had existed since session 772fe502 with no caller. Wiring it up (2026-08-19)
+    /// activated three rails at once, and only one of them is safe to replay:
+    /// </para>
+    /// <list type="bullet">
+    ///   <item><b>62404 Hello-wizard start — replayed.</b> A conservative fact: it vetoes a
+    ///     premature "Hello is disabled" skip and can never by itself complete a session, so
+    ///     replaying it can only make the agent wait longer, never finish early.</item>
+    ///   <item><b>62407 ESP exit — never replayed.</b> Windows writes the identical description
+    ///     for the intermediate DeviceSetup-to-AccountSetup transition and the final exit, so the
+    ///     record carries no evidence of its own position; the reducer orders exits by ingest
+    ///     ordinal, which for a replay is fresher than reality; and arm C of
+    ///     ShouldTransitionToAwaitingHello opens on any arriving exit once the restored state
+    ///     carries AccountSetupEntered + a genuine IME user session + desktop arrival. See
+    ///     ClassicEspExitingOnRestoredStateTests for the reducer half of that proof.</item>
+    ///   <item><b>62407 ESP failure — never replayed.</b> Re-injecting a historic failure as
+    ///     fresh can fail a session that recovered (ANALYZE-ESP-006).</item>
+    /// </list>
+    /// </summary>
+    public sealed class ShellCoreTrackerReplayScopeTests
+    {
+        private static readonly DateTime ClockNow = new DateTime(2026, 8, 19, 8, 43, 16, DateTimeKind.Utc);
+
+        // The REAL Shell-Core wording. Byte-identical for the intermediate DeviceSetup-to-
+        // AccountSetup transition and for the final post-AccountSetup exit — that identity is the
+        // whole reason a replayed exit cannot be classified.
+        private const string EspExitDescription = "CommercialOOBE_ESPProgress_Page_Exiting";
+        private const string EspFailureDescription = "CommercialOOBE_ESPProgress_Failure";
+        private const string AadHelloDescription = "CloudExperienceHost web app activity: AADHello";
+        private const string OtherWebAppDescription = "CloudExperienceHost web app activity: SomethingElse";
+
+        private sealed class Fixture : IDisposable
+        {
+            public TempDirectory Tmp { get; } = new TempDirectory();
+            public FakeSignalIngressSink PostSink { get; } = new FakeSignalIngressSink();
+            public VirtualClock Clock { get; } = new VirtualClock(ClockNow);
+
+            public ShellCoreTracker Build() => new ShellCoreTracker(
+                sessionId: "S1",
+                tenantId: "T1",
+                post: new InformationalEventPost(PostSink, Clock),
+                logger: new AgentLogger(Tmp.Path, AgentLogLevel.Info),
+                helloTracker: null);
+
+            public List<FakeSignalIngressSink.PostedSignal> AgentTraces() =>
+                PostSink.Posted.Where(p =>
+                    p.Payload != null
+                    && p.Payload.TryGetValue(SignalPayloadKeys.EventType, out var et)
+                    && et == "agent_trace").ToList();
+
+            public void Dispose() => Tmp.Dispose();
+        }
+
+        private static (int, string, DateTime) Record(int id, string description, DateTime at)
+            => (id, description, at);
+
+        // ------------------------------------------------------------------ the wizard rail
+
+        [Fact]
+        public void The_hello_wizard_start_is_replayed_with_its_original_source_time()
+        {
+            // Session 772fe502: an agent restarted while the user sits inside the Hello wizard
+            // would otherwise never learn the wizard ran. This is the observation the replay
+            // exists for.
+            using var f = new Fixture();
+            using var tracker = f.Build();
+
+            var order = new List<string>();
+            HelloWizardStartedEventArgs? captured = null;
+            tracker.HelloWizardStarted += (_, args) => { order.Add("wizard"); captured = args; };
+            tracker.FinalizingSetupPhaseTriggered += (_, reason) => order.Add($"finalizing:{reason}");
+
+            var duringDowntime = ClockNow.AddMinutes(-37);
+            tracker.ReplayBackfillRecords(new List<(int, string, DateTime)>
+            {
+                Record(ShellCoreTracker.EventId_ShellCore_WebAppStarted, AadHelloDescription, duringDowntime),
+            });
+
+            Assert.Equal(new[] { "wizard", "finalizing:hello_wizard_started" }, order);
+            Assert.NotNull(captured);
+            // The historical time must survive the replay — collapsing to now would date the
+            // wizard after the restart and skew every duration derived from it.
+            Assert.Equal(duringDowntime, captured!.OccurredAtUtc);
+        }
+
+        [Fact]
+        public void The_wizard_replay_is_single_shot_across_repeated_records()
+        {
+            using var f = new Fixture();
+            using var tracker = f.Build();
+
+            var starts = 0;
+            tracker.HelloWizardStarted += (_, __) => starts++;
+
+            tracker.ReplayBackfillRecords(new List<(int, string, DateTime)>
+            {
+                Record(ShellCoreTracker.EventId_ShellCore_WebAppStarted, AadHelloDescription, ClockNow.AddMinutes(-30)),
+                Record(ShellCoreTracker.EventId_ShellCore_WebAppStarted, AadHelloDescription, ClockNow.AddMinutes(-20)),
+            });
+
+            Assert.Equal(1, starts);
+        }
+
+        [Fact]
+        public void A_non_hello_web_app_start_is_ignored()
+        {
+            using var f = new Fixture();
+            using var tracker = f.Build();
+
+            var starts = 0;
+            tracker.HelloWizardStarted += (_, __) => starts++;
+
+            tracker.ReplayBackfillRecords(new List<(int, string, DateTime)>
+            {
+                Record(ShellCoreTracker.EventId_ShellCore_WebAppStarted, OtherWebAppDescription, ClockNow.AddMinutes(-5)),
+            });
+
+            Assert.Equal(0, starts);
+            Assert.Empty(f.AgentTraces());
+        }
+
+        // ------------------------------------------------------------------ the exit rail
+
+        [Fact]
+        public void An_intermediate_only_window_raises_nothing_that_can_reach_the_reducer()
+        {
+            // THE regression this whole review chain is about: restart, and the only 62407 in the
+            // window is the historic DeviceSetup-to-AccountSetup handoff. Nothing may leave the
+            // tracker on a rail the decision engine listens to.
+            using var f = new Fixture();
+            using var tracker = f.Build();
+
+            var espExits = 0;
+            var finalizing = new List<string>();
+            var failures = 0;
+            tracker.EspExited += (_, __) => espExits++;
+            tracker.FinalizingSetupPhaseTriggered += (_, reason) => finalizing.Add(reason);
+            tracker.EspFailureDetected += (_, __) => failures++;
+
+            tracker.ReplayBackfillRecords(new List<(int, string, DateTime)>
+            {
+                Record(ShellCoreTracker.EventId_ShellCore_WebAppEvent, EspExitDescription, ClockNow.AddMinutes(-52)),
+            });
+
+            Assert.Equal(0, espExits);
+            Assert.Empty(finalizing);
+            Assert.Equal(0, failures);
+        }
+
+        [Fact]
+        public void Even_several_exits_in_the_window_stay_out_of_the_decision_stream()
+        {
+            // "Newest exit wins" was an earlier attempt at this problem. It does not help: if the
+            // final exit has not happened yet, the newest record in the window is still the
+            // intermediate one. Picking a record is the wrong lever — none of them is usable.
+            using var f = new Fixture();
+            using var tracker = f.Build();
+
+            var espExits = 0;
+            tracker.EspExited += (_, __) => espExits++;
+
+            tracker.ReplayBackfillRecords(new List<(int, string, DateTime)>
+            {
+                Record(ShellCoreTracker.EventId_ShellCore_WebAppEvent, EspExitDescription, ClockNow.AddMinutes(-52)),
+                Record(ShellCoreTracker.EventId_ShellCore_WebAppEvent, EspExitDescription, ClockNow.AddMinutes(-9)),
+            });
+
+            Assert.Equal(0, espExits);
+        }
+
+        [Fact]
+        public void A_historic_esp_failure_is_never_re_injected()
+        {
+            // A session that failed and then recovered on retry (ANALYZE-ESP-006) must not be
+            // failed again by its own history.
+            using var f = new Fixture();
+            using var tracker = f.Build();
+
+            var failures = new List<string>();
+            tracker.EspFailureDetected += (_, failureType) => failures.Add(failureType);
+
+            tracker.ReplayBackfillRecords(new List<(int, string, DateTime)>
+            {
+                Record(ShellCoreTracker.EventId_ShellCore_WebAppEvent, EspFailureDescription, ClockNow.AddMinutes(-40)),
+            });
+
+            Assert.Empty(failures);
+        }
+
+        // ------------------------------------------------------------------ visibility
+
+        [Fact]
+        public void Skipped_records_are_reported_once_as_an_agent_trace()
+        {
+            // Dropping evidence silently is how this class of bug survives. The gap has to stay
+            // visible to whoever debugs the session later — as an informational event, which is
+            // decision-neutral by construction.
+            using var f = new Fixture();
+            using var tracker = f.Build();
+
+            tracker.ReplayBackfillRecords(new List<(int, string, DateTime)>
+            {
+                Record(ShellCoreTracker.EventId_ShellCore_WebAppEvent, EspExitDescription, ClockNow.AddMinutes(-52)),
+                Record(ShellCoreTracker.EventId_ShellCore_WebAppEvent, EspFailureDescription, ClockNow.AddMinutes(-40)),
+                Record(ShellCoreTracker.EventId_ShellCore_WebAppEvent, EspExitDescription, ClockNow.AddMinutes(-9)),
+            });
+
+            var trace = Assert.Single(f.AgentTraces());
+            var data = Assert.IsAssignableFrom<IReadOnlyDictionary<string, object>>(trace.TypedPayload);
+            Assert.Equal(2, data["skippedEspExits"]);
+            Assert.Equal(1, data["skippedEspFailures"]);
+            Assert.Equal("replayed_62407_not_orderable", data["reason"]);
+            Assert.Equal(ClockNow.AddMinutes(-52).ToString("o"), data["oldestSkippedUtc"]);
+            Assert.Equal(ClockNow.AddMinutes(-9).ToString("o"), data["newestSkippedUtc"]);
+        }
+
+        [Fact]
+        public void A_wizard_only_window_reports_nothing_as_skipped()
+        {
+            using var f = new Fixture();
+            using var tracker = f.Build();
+
+            tracker.ReplayBackfillRecords(new List<(int, string, DateTime)>
+            {
+                Record(ShellCoreTracker.EventId_ShellCore_WebAppStarted, AadHelloDescription, ClockNow.AddMinutes(-30)),
+            });
+
+            Assert.Empty(f.AgentTraces());
+        }
+
+        [Fact]
+        public void An_empty_batch_is_a_no_op()
+        {
+            using var f = new Fixture();
+            using var tracker = f.Build();
+
+            var raised = 0;
+            tracker.EspExited += (_, __) => raised++;
+            tracker.HelloWizardStarted += (_, __) => raised++;
+
+            tracker.ReplayBackfillRecords(new List<(int, string, DateTime)>());
+
+            Assert.Equal(0, raised);
+            Assert.Empty(f.AgentTraces());
+        }
+
+        // ------------------------------------------------------------------ live path untouched
+
+        [Fact]
+        public void The_live_path_still_raises_the_exit_normally()
+        {
+            // Narrowing the REPLAY must not narrow live observation — that is the agent's primary
+            // signal source and the one the completion recovery actually runs on.
+            using var f = new Fixture();
+            using var tracker = f.Build();
+
+            var exits = new List<DateTime>();
+            tracker.EspExited += (_, args) => exits.Add(args.OccurredAtUtc);
+
+            tracker.ProcessEvent(
+                eventId: ShellCoreTracker.EventId_ShellCore_WebAppEvent,
+                description: EspExitDescription,
+                timestamp: ClockNow,
+                providerName: "Microsoft-Windows-Shell-Core",
+                isBackfill: false);
+
+            Assert.Equal(ClockNow, Assert.Single(exits));
+        }
+
+        [Fact]
+        public void The_live_path_still_raises_esp_failures()
+        {
+            using var f = new Fixture();
+            using var tracker = f.Build();
+
+            var failures = new List<string>();
+            tracker.EspFailureDetected += (_, failureType) => failures.Add(failureType);
+
+            tracker.ProcessEvent(
+                eventId: ShellCoreTracker.EventId_ShellCore_WebAppEvent,
+                description: EspFailureDescription,
+                timestamp: ClockNow,
+                providerName: "Microsoft-Windows-Shell-Core",
+                isBackfill: false);
+
+            Assert.Single(failures);
+        }
+
+        // ------------------------------------------------------------------ window clamp
+
+        [Theory]
+        [InlineData(0, 1)]
+        [InlineData(-42, 1)]
+        [InlineData(5, 5)]
+        [InlineData(ShellCoreTracker.BackfillLookbackMaxMinutes, ShellCoreTracker.BackfillLookbackMaxMinutes)]
+        [InlineData(ShellCoreTracker.BackfillLookbackMaxMinutes + 1, ShellCoreTracker.BackfillLookbackMaxMinutes)]
+        [InlineData(int.MaxValue, ShellCoreTracker.BackfillLookbackMaxMinutes)]
+        public void Lookback_is_clamped_to_a_sane_window(int requested, int expected)
+        {
+            // int.MaxValue matters: the query multiplies minutes by 60_000, so an unclamped value
+            // would overflow into a negative timediff and silently match nothing.
+            Assert.Equal(expected, ShellCoreTracker.ClampLookbackMinutes(requested));
+        }
+    }
+}
@@ -0,0 +1,183 @@
+#nullable enable
+using System;
+using System.Collections.Generic;
+using AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Core.Logging;
+using AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Core.Monitoring.Enrollment.SystemSignals;
+using Xunit;
+
+namespace AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Core.Tests.Monitoring.SystemSignals
+{
+    /// <summary>
+    /// Selection/normalization logic of <see cref="ImeMsiInstallSourceProbe"/> — the registry
+    /// walk itself is not unit-testable (live HKLM), so tests cover the pure pieces:
+    /// <c>SelectBestMatch</c>, <c>VersionsEqual</c>, <c>IsImeMsiUrl</c>.
+    /// </summary>
+    public class ImeMsiInstallSourceProbeTests
+    {
+        private const string ImeProductCode = "{6A7DFC50-0395-4E1E-BF84-ED1404E72051}";
+        private const string ImeUrl = "https://imeswdb-afd-secondary.manage.microsoft.com/IntuneWindowsAgent.msi";
+
+        private static ImeMsiInstallSourceProbe.MsiEntry Entry(
+            string productCode = ImeProductCode,
+            string version = "1.104.102.0",
+            string url = ImeUrl)
+            => new ImeMsiInstallSourceProbe.MsiEntry(productCode, version, url);
+
+        // -- SelectBestMatch -----------------------------------------------------------
+
+        [Fact]
+        public void SelectBestMatch_exact_product_version_wins()
+        {
+            var result = ImeMsiInstallSourceProbe.SelectBestMatch(
+                new List<ImeMsiInstallSourceProbe.MsiEntry>
+                {
+                    Entry(productCode: "{OTHER}", version: "9.9.9.9", url: "https://x/Other.msi"),
+                    Entry(),
+                },
+                "1.104.102.0");
+
+            Assert.True(result.HasData);
+            Assert.True(result.MatchedByVersion);
+            Assert.Equal(ImeProductCode, result.ProductCode);
+            Assert.Equal("1.104.102.0", result.ProductVersion);
+            Assert.Equal(ImeUrl, result.DownloadUrl);
+        }
+
+        [Fact]
+        public void SelectBestMatch_normalized_version_matches_trailing_zero()
+        {
+            var result = ImeMsiInstallSourceProbe.SelectBestMatch(
+                new List<ImeMsiInstallSourceProbe.MsiEntry> { Entry(version: "1.104.102") },
+                "1.104.102.0");
+
+            Assert.True(result.HasData);
+            Assert.True(result.MatchedByVersion);
+        }
+
+        [Fact]
+        public void SelectBestMatch_version_mismatch_falls_back_to_ime_msi_filename()
+        {
+            // IME self-updated between MSI enforcement and log line — versions drift, but the
+            // enforced IntuneWindowsAgent.msi entry is still the install source.
+            var result = ImeMsiInstallSourceProbe.SelectBestMatch(
+                new List<ImeMsiInstallSourceProbe.MsiEntry>
+                {
+                    Entry(productCode: "{OTHER}", version: "5.0.0.0", url: "https://x/SomeLobApp.msi"),
+                    Entry(version: "1.103.100.0"),
+                },
+                "1.104.102.0");
+
+            Assert.True(result.HasData);
+            Assert.False(result.MatchedByVersion);
+            Assert.Equal("1.103.100.0", result.ProductVersion);
+            Assert.Equal(ImeUrl, result.DownloadUrl);
+        }
+
+        [Fact]
+        public void SelectBestMatch_version_match_beats_filename_match_on_other_entry()
+        {
+            // A stale IntuneWindowsAgent.msi row must not shadow the entry whose
+            // ProductVersion equals the running build.
+            var result = ImeMsiInstallSourceProbe.SelectBestMatch(
+                new List<ImeMsiInstallSourceProbe.MsiEntry>
+                {
+                    Entry(productCode: "{STALE}", version: "1.103.100.0"),
+                    Entry(productCode: "{CURRENT}", version: "1.104.102.0", url: "https://y/IntuneWindowsAgent.msi"),
+                },
+                "1.104.102.0");
+
+            Assert.True(result.MatchedByVersion);
+            Assert.Equal("{CURRENT}", result.ProductCode);
+        }
+
+        [Fact]
+        public void SelectBestMatch_no_plausible_entry_returns_empty()
+        {
+            var result = ImeMsiInstallSourceProbe.SelectBestMatch(
+                new List<ImeMsiInstallSourceProbe.MsiEntry>
+                {
+                    Entry(productCode: "{OTHER}", version: "5.0.0.0", url: "https://x/SomeLobApp.msi"),
+                },
+                "1.104.102.0");
+
+            Assert.False(result.HasData);
+        }
+
+        [Fact]
+        public void SelectBestMatch_empty_or_null_candidates_return_empty()
+        {
+            Assert.False(ImeMsiInstallSourceProbe.SelectBestMatch(
+                new List<ImeMsiInstallSourceProbe.MsiEntry>(), "1.104.102.0").HasData);
+            Assert.False(ImeMsiInstallSourceProbe.SelectBestMatch(
+                null, "1.104.102.0").HasData);
+        }
+
+        [Fact]
+        public void SelectBestMatch_null_registry_values_do_not_throw()
+        {
+            var result = ImeMsiInstallSourceProbe.SelectBestMatch(
+                new List<ImeMsiInstallSourceProbe.MsiEntry>
+                {
+                    new ImeMsiInstallSourceProbe.MsiEntry("{PARTIAL}", null, null),
+                    Entry(),
+                },
+                "1.104.102.0");
+
+            Assert.True(result.HasData);
+            Assert.Equal(ImeProductCode, result.ProductCode);
+        }
+
+        // -- VersionsEqual ---------------------------------------------------------------
+
+        [Theory]
+        [InlineData("1.104.102.0", "1.104.102.0", true)]
+        [InlineData("1.104.102", "1.104.102.0", true)]
+        [InlineData("1.104.102.0", "1.104.102", true)]
+        [InlineData(" 1.104.102.0 ", "1.104.102.0", true)]
+        [InlineData("1.104.102.0", "1.104.103.0", false)]
+        [InlineData("1.104.102.0", "1.104.102.1", false)]
+        [InlineData("1.104", "1.104.102.0", false)]
+        [InlineData("abc", "abc", true)]     // non-numeric: whole-string equality
+        [InlineData("abc", "abd", false)]    // non-numeric components never fuzzy-match
+        [InlineData(null, "1.0", false)]
+        [InlineData("1.0", null, false)]
+        [InlineData("", "", false)]
+        public void VersionsEqual_cases(string? a, string? b, bool expected)
+        {
+            Assert.Equal(expected, ImeMsiInstallSourceProbe.VersionsEqual(a, b));
+        }
+
+        // -- IsImeMsiUrl -------------------------------------------------------------------
+
+        [Theory]
+        [InlineData(ImeUrl, true)]
+        [InlineData("https://x/intunewindowsagent.MSI", true)]                  // case-insensitive
+        [InlineData("https://x/IntuneWindowsAgent.msi?sv=abc&sig=def", true)]   // query ignored
+        [InlineData("IntuneWindowsAgent.msi", true)]                            // bare filename
+        [InlineData("https://x/NotTheAgent.msi", false)]
+        [InlineData("https://x/IntuneWindowsAgent.msi.bak", false)]
+        [InlineData("", false)]
+        [InlineData(null, false)]
+        public void IsImeMsiUrl_cases(string? url, bool expected)
+        {
+            Assert.Equal(expected, ImeMsiInstallSourceProbe.IsImeMsiUrl(url));
+        }
+
+        // -- ScopedOverride ---------------------------------------------------------------
+
+        [Fact]
+        public void ScopedOverride_restores_previous_override_on_dispose()
+        {
+            // Assembly default (TestAssemblyInit) forces Empty; a nested scope must restore it.
+            Func<string, AgentLogger, ImeMsiInstallSource> before =
+                ImeMsiInstallSourceProbe.TestOverride;
+            using (new ImeMsiInstallSourceProbe.ScopedOverride((_, _) =>
+                       ImeMsiInstallSourceProbe.SelectBestMatch(
+                           new List<ImeMsiInstallSourceProbe.MsiEntry> { Entry() }, "1.104.102.0")))
+            {
+                Assert.True(ImeMsiInstallSourceProbe.Read("1.104.102.0").HasData);
+            }
+            Assert.Same(before, ImeMsiInstallSourceProbe.TestOverride);
+        }
+    }
+}
@@ -0,0 +1,377 @@
+#nullable enable
+using System;
+using System.Collections.Generic;
+using System.Linq;
+using AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Core.Monitoring.Enrollment.Ime;
+using AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Core.Monitoring.Enrollment.SystemSignals;
+using AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Core.Orchestration;
+using AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Core.Tests.Harness;
+using AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Core.Tests.Orchestration;
+using AutopilotMonitor.DecisionCore.Engine;
+using AutopilotMonitor.DecisionCore.Signals;
+using Xunit;
+using SharedEventTypes = AutopilotMonitor.Shared.Constants.EventTypes;
+
+namespace AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Core.Tests.Monitoring.SystemSignals
+{
+    /// <summary>
+    /// Registry second pillar (audit 2026-08-17): pure parsing/diff logic plus the
+    /// tick flow (baseline silence, state-change emission, reconciliation dwell)
+    /// driven through the snapshot override — no live registry.
+    /// </summary>
+    public sealed class ImeRegistryAppStateObserverTests
+    {
+        private const string App1 = "11111111-1111-1111-1111-111111111111";
+        private const string App2 = "22222222-2222-2222-2222-222222222222";
+        private static readonly DateTime T0 = new DateTime(2026, 8, 18, 8, 0, 0, DateTimeKind.Utc);
+
+        // ── pure helpers ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+
+        [Theory]
+        [InlineData("11111111-1111-1111-1111-111111111111_1", "11111111-1111-1111-1111-111111111111")]
+        [InlineData("11111111-1111-1111-1111-111111111111", "11111111-1111-1111-1111-111111111111")]
+        [InlineData("GRS", null)]
+        [InlineData("", null)]
+        [InlineData("not-a-guid_1", null)]
+        public void ExtractAppId_parses_app_keys_and_rejects_non_app_keys(string keyName, string? expected)
+            => Assert.Equal(expected, ImeRegistryAppStateObserver.ExtractAppId(keyName));
+
+        [Fact]
+        public void ParseEnforcementStateMessage_reads_state_and_error()
+        {
+            var (state, error) = ImeRegistryAppStateObserver.ParseEnforcementStateMessage(
+                "{\"EnforcementState\":1000,\"ErrorCode\":0}");
+            Assert.Equal(1000, state);
+            Assert.Equal(0L, error);
+
+            Assert.Equal((null, null), ImeRegistryAppStateObserver.ParseEnforcementStateMessage("not json"));
+            Assert.Equal((null, null), ImeRegistryAppStateObserver.ParseEnforcementStateMessage("[]"));
+        }
+
+        [Theory]
+        [InlineData(1000, "success")]
+        [InlineData(1004, "success")]
+        [InlineData(2009, "inProgress")]
+        [InlineData(3000, "requirementsNotMet")]
+        [InlineData(5003, "error")]
+        [InlineData(6001, "notAttempted")]
+        [InlineData(42, "unknown")]
+        public void ClassifyEnforcementState_bands(int state, string expected)
+            => Assert.Equal(expected, ImeRegistryAppStateObserver.ClassifyEnforcementState(state));
+
+        [Theory]
+        [InlineData(1000, "installed")]
+        [InlineData(1999, "installed")]
+        [InlineData(3000, "failed")]
+        [InlineData(2000, "notApplicable")]
+        [InlineData(2999, "notApplicable")]
+        [InlineData(0, null)]
+        [InlineData(999, null)]
+        [InlineData(3001, null)]
+        [InlineData(4000, null)]
+        public void ClassifyStatusServiceStatus_bands(int status, string? expected)
+            => Assert.Equal(expected, ImeRegistryAppStateObserver.ClassifyStatusServiceStatus(status));
+
+        [Fact]
+        public void TerminalOutcome_prefers_enforcement_state_then_status_service()
+        {
+            // Enforcement state alone decides when terminal.
+            Assert.Equal("success", ImeRegistryAppStateObserver.TerminalOutcome(Entry(enforcementState: 1000)));
+            Assert.Equal("error", ImeRegistryAppStateObserver.TerminalOutcome(Entry(enforcementState: 5003)));
+            // Non-terminal enforcement bands defer to the StatusService pillar.
+            Assert.Null(ImeRegistryAppStateObserver.TerminalOutcome(Entry(enforcementState: 2009)));
+            Assert.Equal("error", ImeRegistryAppStateObserver.TerminalOutcome(
+                Entry(enforcementState: 2009, statusServiceStatus: 3000)));
+            Assert.Equal("success", ImeRegistryAppStateObserver.TerminalOutcome(Entry(statusServiceStatus: 1000)));
+            Assert.Equal("error", ImeRegistryAppStateObserver.TerminalOutcome(Entry(statusServiceStatus: 3000)));
+            // requirementsNotMet / notApplicable / empty entries are not judgeable.
+            Assert.Null(ImeRegistryAppStateObserver.TerminalOutcome(Entry(enforcementState: 3000)));
+            Assert.Null(ImeRegistryAppStateObserver.TerminalOutcome(Entry(statusServiceStatus: 2500)));
+            Assert.Null(ImeRegistryAppStateObserver.TerminalOutcome(Entry()));
+        }
+
+        [Fact]
+        public void ChangedFields_reports_each_field_and_ignores_espPhase_casing()
+        {
+            var prev = Entry(enforcementState: 2009, errorCode: null, exitCode: null,
+                statusServiceStatus: null, espTracked: false, espPhase: "DevicePreparation");
+            var next = Entry(enforcementState: 1000, errorCode: 0, exitCode: 0,
+                statusServiceStatus: 1000, espTracked: true, espPhase: "devicepreparation");
+
+            var changed = ImeRegistryAppStateObserver.ChangedFields(prev, next);
+
+            Assert.Equal(
+                new[] { "enforcementState", "errorCode", "exitCode", "statusServiceStatus", "espTracked" },
+                changed);
+            // Case-only espPhase difference is not a change; identity diffs to empty.
+            Assert.DoesNotContain("espPhase", changed);
+            Assert.Empty(ImeRegistryAppStateObserver.ChangedFields(next, next));
+        }
+
+        [Fact]
+        public void ChangedFields_null_previous_reports_populated_fields_of_new_entry()
+        {
+            var fresh = Entry(enforcementState: 2000, espTracked: true, espPhase: "AccountSetup");
+
+            var changed = ImeRegistryAppStateObserver.ChangedFields(null, fresh);
+
+            Assert.Contains("enforcementState", changed);
+            Assert.Contains("espTracked", changed);
+            Assert.Contains("espPhase", changed);
+            // Fields that are null on both sides are not "changes" for a brand-new entry.
+            Assert.DoesNotContain("errorCode", changed);
+            Assert.DoesNotContain("exitCode", changed);
+            Assert.DoesNotContain("statusServiceStatus", changed);
+        }
+
+        [Fact]
+        public void DiffSnapshots_reports_only_changed_fields()
+        {
+            var prev = Snapshot((App1, 2009, null));
+            var next = Snapshot((App1, 1000, 0), (App2, 2000, null));
+
+            var changes = ImeRegistryAppStateObserver.DiffSnapshots(prev, next);
+
+            Assert.Equal(2, changes.Count);
+            var app1Change = changes.Single(c => c.Entry.AppId == App1);
+            Assert.Contains("enforcementState", app1Change.ChangedFields);
+            Assert.Contains("errorCode", app1Change.ChangedFields);
+            Assert.False(app1Change.IsNew);
+            Assert.True(changes.Single(c => c.Entry.AppId == App2).IsNew);
+
+            Assert.Empty(ImeRegistryAppStateObserver.DiffSnapshots(next, next));
+        }
+
+        [Fact]
+        public void IsDivergent_rules()
+        {
+            var installed = PackageState(App1, AppInstallationState.Installed);
+            var errored = PackageState(App1, AppInstallationState.Error);
+
+            Assert.True(ImeRegistryAppStateObserver.IsDivergent("error", installed, true, out var r1));
+            Assert.Equal("registry_error_log_installed", r1);
+            Assert.True(ImeRegistryAppStateObserver.IsDivergent("success", errored, true, out var r2));
+            Assert.Equal("registry_success_log_error", r2);
+            Assert.True(ImeRegistryAppStateObserver.IsDivergent("success", null, true, out var r3));
+            Assert.Equal("app_unknown_to_log_tracking", r3);
+            // Tracker idle (no apps at all) — not judgeable, no false alarm.
+            Assert.False(ImeRegistryAppStateObserver.IsDivergent("success", null, false, out _));
+            // Agreement.
+            Assert.False(ImeRegistryAppStateObserver.IsDivergent("success", installed, true, out _));
+            Assert.False(ImeRegistryAppStateObserver.IsDivergent("error", errored, true, out _));
+        }
+
+        // ── tick flow ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+
+        [Fact]
+        public void Baseline_is_silent_then_changes_emit_state_events()
+        {
+            var (sink, clock, observer) = CreateObserver(trackerApps: null);
+            var current = Snapshot((App1, 2000, null));
+
+            using (new ImeRegistryAppStateObserver.ScopedSnapshotOverride(() => current))
+            {
+                observer.Tick("baseline");
+                Assert.Empty(Events(sink, SharedEventTypes.RegistryAppState));
+
+                current = Snapshot((App1, 1000, 0));
+                observer.Tick("registry_change");
+            }
+
+            var evt = Assert.Single(Events(sink, SharedEventTypes.RegistryAppState));
+            Assert.Equal(App1, evt.Payload!["appId"]);
+            Assert.Equal("1000", evt.Payload["enforcementState"]);
+            Assert.Equal("success", evt.Payload["enforcementClass"]);
+        }
+
+        [Fact]
+        public void NonEmpty_baseline_emits_one_summary_with_counts()
+        {
+            var (sink, clock, observer) = CreateObserver(trackerApps: null);
+            var current = Snapshot((App1, 1000, 0), (App2, 5003, 101));
+
+            using (new ImeRegistryAppStateObserver.ScopedSnapshotOverride(() => current))
+            {
+                observer.Tick("baseline");
+                observer.Tick("periodic"); // summary is one-shot, not per tick
+            }
+
+            var summary = Assert.Single(Events(sink, SharedEventTypes.RegistryAppBaseline));
+            Assert.Equal("2", summary.Payload!["totalApps"]);
+            Assert.Equal("1", summary.Payload["successCount"]);
+            Assert.Equal("1", summary.Payload["errorCount"]);
+            // The baseline stays silent on the diff rail.
+            Assert.Empty(Events(sink, SharedEventTypes.RegistryAppState));
+        }
+
+        [Fact]
+        public void Empty_baseline_emits_no_summary()
+        {
+            var (sink, clock, observer) = CreateObserver(trackerApps: null);
+            var current = new ImeRegistrySnapshot();
+
+            using (new ImeRegistryAppStateObserver.ScopedSnapshotOverride(() => current))
+            {
+                observer.Tick("baseline");
+            }
+
+            Assert.Empty(Events(sink, SharedEventTypes.RegistryAppBaseline));
+        }
+
+        [Fact]
+        public void Unchanged_snapshot_emits_nothing()
+        {
+            var (sink, clock, observer) = CreateObserver(trackerApps: null);
+            var current = Snapshot((App1, 2000, null));
+
+            using (new ImeRegistryAppStateObserver.ScopedSnapshotOverride(() => current))
+            {
+                observer.Tick("baseline");
+                observer.Tick("periodic");
+                observer.Tick("periodic");
+            }
+
+            Assert.Empty(Events(sink, SharedEventTypes.RegistryAppState));
+        }
+
+        [Fact]
+        public void Reconciliation_fires_once_after_settle_delay_on_divergence()
+        {
+            var tracker = new List<AppPackageState> { PackageState(App1, AppInstallationState.Installed) };
+            var (sink, clock, observer) = CreateObserver(trackerApps: tracker);
+            var current = Snapshot((App1, 2000, null));
+
+            using (new ImeRegistryAppStateObserver.ScopedSnapshotOverride(() => current))
+            {
+                observer.Tick("baseline");
+                current = Snapshot((App1, 5003, 101)); // registry error, log says Installed
+                observer.Tick("registry_change");
+
+                // Before the settle delay: no reconciliation yet.
+                Assert.Empty(Events(sink, SharedEventTypes.AppStateReconciliation));
+
+                clock.Advance(ImeRegistryAppStateObserver.ReconcileSettleDelay + TimeSpan.FromSeconds(1));
+                observer.Tick("periodic");
+                observer.Tick("periodic"); // second pass must not re-emit
+            }
+
+            var rec = Assert.Single(Events(sink, SharedEventTypes.AppStateReconciliation));
+            Assert.Equal("error", rec.Payload!["registryOutcome"]);
+            Assert.Equal("registry_error_log_installed", rec.Payload["reason"]);
+            Assert.Equal("Installed", rec.Payload["logState"]);
+        }
+
+        [Fact]
+        public void Reconciliation_skips_agreeing_and_baseline_only_apps()
+        {
+            var tracker = new List<AppPackageState> { PackageState(App1, AppInstallationState.Installed) };
+            var (sink, clock, observer) = CreateObserver(trackerApps: tracker);
+
+            // App2 is terminal in the BASELINE (pre-existing from an earlier enrollment) and
+            // never changes — it must never be judged. App1 changes and agrees with the log.
+            var current = Snapshot((App1, 2000, null), (App2, 5000, 1));
+            using (new ImeRegistryAppStateObserver.ScopedSnapshotOverride(() => current))
+            {
+                observer.Tick("baseline");
+                current = Snapshot((App1, 1000, 0), (App2, 5000, 1));
+                observer.Tick("registry_change");
+
+                clock.Advance(ImeRegistryAppStateObserver.ReconcileSettleDelay + TimeSpan.FromSeconds(1));
+                observer.Tick("periodic");
+            }
+
+            Assert.Empty(Events(sink, SharedEventTypes.AppStateReconciliation));
+        }
+
+        [Fact]
+        public void State_event_cap_emits_single_warning_then_suppresses()
+        {
+            var (sink, clock, observer) = CreateObserver(trackerApps: null);
+
+            var baseline = new ImeRegistrySnapshot();
+            var flooded = new ImeRegistrySnapshot();
+            for (var i = 0; i < ImeRegistryAppStateObserver.MaxStateEventsPerSession + 25; i++)
+            {
+                var appId = Guid.NewGuid().ToString("D");
+                baseline.GetOrAdd(ImeRegistrySnapshot.DeviceContext, appId).EnforcementState = 2000;
+                flooded.GetOrAdd(ImeRegistrySnapshot.DeviceContext, appId).EnforcementState = 1000;
+            }
+
+            var current = baseline;
+            using (new ImeRegistryAppStateObserver.ScopedSnapshotOverride(() => current))
+            {
+                observer.Tick("baseline");
+                current = flooded;
+                observer.Tick("registry_change");
+            }
+
+            var events = Events(sink, SharedEventTypes.RegistryAppState);
+            // Cap payload-carrying events + exactly one cap-notice Warning.
+            Assert.Equal(ImeRegistryAppStateObserver.MaxStateEventsPerSession + 1, events.Count);
+            Assert.Single(events, e => e.Payload != null
+                && e.Payload.TryGetValue(SignalPayloadKeys.Message, out var m)
+                && m.Contains("cap reached"));
+        }
+
+        // ── harness ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+
+        private static (FakeSignalIngressSink sink, VirtualClock clock, ImeRegistryAppStateObserver observer)
+            CreateObserver(IReadOnlyList<AppPackageState>? trackerApps)
+        {
+            var sink = new FakeSignalIngressSink();
+            var clock = new VirtualClock(T0);
+            var post = new InformationalEventPost(sink, clock);
+            var observer = new ImeRegistryAppStateObserver(
+                post,
+                logger: null,
+                clock: clock,
+                trackerStateProbe: trackerApps == null ? null : () => trackerApps);
+            return (sink, clock, observer);
+        }
+
+        private static AppRegistryEntry Entry(
+            int? enforcementState = null, long? errorCode = null, int? exitCode = null,
+            int? statusServiceStatus = null, bool espTracked = false, string? espPhase = null)
+        {
+            var entry = new AppRegistryEntry($"{ImeRegistrySnapshot.DeviceContext}|{App1}", ImeRegistrySnapshot.DeviceContext, App1);
+            entry.EnforcementState = enforcementState;
+            entry.ErrorCode = errorCode;
+            entry.ExitCode = exitCode;
+            entry.StatusServiceStatus = statusServiceStatus;
+            entry.EspTracked = espTracked;
+            entry.EspPhase = espPhase;
+            return entry;
+        }
+
+        private static ImeRegistrySnapshot Snapshot(params (string appId, int enforcementState, long? errorCode)[] apps)
+        {
+            var snapshot = new ImeRegistrySnapshot();
+            foreach (var (appId, state, error) in apps)
+            {
+                var entry = snapshot.GetOrAdd(ImeRegistrySnapshot.DeviceContext, appId);
+                entry.EnforcementState = state;
+                entry.ErrorCode = error;
+            }
+            return snapshot;
+        }
+
+        private static AppPackageState PackageState(string id, AppInstallationState state)
+        {
+            var pkg = new AppPackageState(id, listPos: 0);
+            if (state == AppInstallationState.Installed)
+            {
+                // Route through Installing first — a bare Installed would trip the
+                // inverse-detection auto-downgrade heuristic (Installed w/o activity -> Skipped).
+                pkg.UpdateState(AppInstallationState.Installing);
+            }
+            pkg.UpdateState(state);
+            return pkg;
+        }
+
+        private static IReadOnlyList<FakeSignalIngressSink.PostedSignal> Events(FakeSignalIngressSink sink, string eventType) =>
+            sink.Posted.Where(p =>
+                p.Payload != null
+                && p.Payload.TryGetValue(SignalPayloadKeys.EventType, out var et)
+                && et == eventType).ToList();
+    }
+}
@@ -0,0 +1,130 @@
+using System;
+using System.Collections.Generic;
+using System.Linq;
+using AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Core.Logging;
+using AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Core.Monitoring.Enrollment.SystemSignals;
+using AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Core.Orchestration;
+using AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Core.Tests.Harness;
+using AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Core.Tests.Orchestration;
+using AutopilotMonitor.DecisionCore.Engine;
+using AutopilotMonitor.DecisionCore.Signals;
+using Xunit;
+
+namespace AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Core.Tests.Monitoring.SystemSignals
+{
+    /// <summary>
+    /// Session afee7ae0 (2026-08-18) — Device Preparation structural-noise suppression.
+    /// A nine-minute WDP session shipped 900+ occurrences of WIL error 1005 plus 400+
+    /// duplicate-workload 417/418 records and "Autopilot policy not found" 100s — all
+    /// structural on WDP (no deployment profile exists; the BootstrapperAgent's SLDM
+    /// progress poll produces the 417/418 chatter). On WDP those IDs are suppressed
+    /// entirely (<see cref="ModernDeploymentTracker.DevicePreparationNoiseEventIds"/>);
+    /// genuine diagnostics (e.g. 408 provisioning warnings) and Critical records keep
+    /// flowing, and Classic sessions keep the harmless-downgrade + rollup path.
+    /// </summary>
+    public sealed class ModernDeploymentTrackerDevicePrepTests : IDisposable
+    {
+        private static readonly DateTime At = new DateTime(2026, 8, 18, 9, 10, 0, DateTimeKind.Utc);
+
+        private readonly TempDirectory _tmp = new TempDirectory();
+        private readonly FakeSignalIngressSink _sink;
+        private readonly AgentLogger _logger;
+
+        public ModernDeploymentTrackerDevicePrepTests()
+        {
+            _sink = new FakeSignalIngressSink();
+            _logger = new AgentLogger(_tmp.Path, AgentLogLevel.Info);
+        }
+
+        public void Dispose() => _tmp.Dispose();
+
+        private ModernDeploymentTracker BuildTracker(bool isDevicePreparation) =>
+            new ModernDeploymentTracker(
+                sessionId: "sess-wdp-noise",
+                tenantId: "tenant-wdp-noise",
+                post: new InformationalEventPost(_sink, new VirtualClock(At)),
+                logger: _logger,
+                backfillEnabled: false,
+                isDevicePreparation: isDevicePreparation);
+
+        private void Process(ModernDeploymentTracker tracker, int eventId, int level, string shortName, string channel)
+        {
+            tracker.ProcessEvent(
+                eventId: eventId,
+                level: level,
+                levelDisplayName: level == 1 ? "Critical" : level == 2 ? "Error" : "Warning",
+                providerName: "ModernDeployment-Diagnostics-Provider",
+                timeCreatedUtc: At,
+                formattedDescription: $"EventID {eventId} record.",
+                shortName: shortName,
+                channelName: channel,
+                isBackfill: false);
+        }
+
+        private List<FakeSignalIngressSink.PostedSignal> PostedModernDeployment() =>
+            _sink.Posted.Where(p =>
+                p.Kind == DecisionSignalKind.InformationalEvent
+                && p.Payload != null
+                && p.Payload.TryGetValue(SignalPayloadKeys.EventType, out var et)
+                && et.StartsWith("modern_deployment", StringComparison.Ordinal)).ToList();
+
+        [Theory]
+        [InlineData(100, 3, "Autopilot")]           // policy not found — no profile exists on WDP
+        [InlineData(417, 3, "Autopilot")]           // duplicate workload — SLDM poll chatter
+        [InlineData(418, 3, "Autopilot")]           // duplicate batch — SLDM poll chatter
+        [InlineData(1005, 2, "ManagementService")]  // WIL error storm
+        public void WdpNoiseIds_AreFullySuppressed_OnDevicePreparation(int eventId, int level, string shortName)
+        {
+            var tracker = BuildTracker(isDevicePreparation: true);
+            var channel = shortName == "Autopilot"
+                ? ModernDeploymentTracker.AutopilotChannel
+                : ModernDeploymentTracker.ManagementChannel;
+
+            for (var i = 0; i < 10; i++)
+            {
+                Process(tracker, eventId, level, shortName, channel);
+            }
+
+            Assert.Empty(PostedModernDeployment());
+        }
+
+        [Fact]
+        public void GenuineWdpWarning_408_KeepsFlowing_OnDevicePreparation()
+        {
+            // 408 "Autopilot Provisioning reported a warning" carries the real WDP session
+            // context — it is NOT in the noise set and must keep flowing.
+            var tracker = BuildTracker(isDevicePreparation: true);
+
+            Process(tracker, 408, level: 3, shortName: "Autopilot", channel: ModernDeploymentTracker.AutopilotChannel);
+
+            var posted = Assert.Single(PostedModernDeployment());
+            Assert.Equal("modern_deployment_warning", posted.Payload![SignalPayloadKeys.EventType]);
+        }
+
+        [Fact]
+        public void CriticalRecords_AreNeverSuppressed_EvenForNoiseIds()
+        {
+            var tracker = BuildTracker(isDevicePreparation: true);
+
+            Process(tracker, 1005, level: 1, shortName: "ManagementService", channel: ModernDeploymentTracker.ManagementChannel);
+
+            var posted = Assert.Single(PostedModernDeployment());
+            Assert.Equal("modern_deployment_error", posted.Payload![SignalPayloadKeys.EventType]);
+        }
+
+        [Fact]
+        public void ClassicSessions_KeepTheHarmlessDowngradePath_ForTheSameIds()
+        {
+            // Classic regression guard: without the WDP flag EventID 100 still flows through
+            // the harmless-downgrade path (individual Debug emissions up to the rollup limit).
+            var tracker = BuildTracker(isDevicePreparation: false);
+
+            for (var i = 0; i < 2; i++)
+            {
+                Process(tracker, 100, level: 3, shortName: "Autopilot", channel: ModernDeploymentTracker.AutopilotChannel);
+            }
+
+            Assert.Equal(2, PostedModernDeployment().Count);
+        }
+    }
+}
@@ -3,6 +3,7 @@ using System.Collections.Generic;
 using System.Linq;
 using AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Core.Configuration;
 using AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Core.Logging;
+using AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Core.Monitoring.Enrollment.Ime;
 using AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Core.Orchestration;
 using AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Core.Tests.Harness;
 using AutopilotMonitor.Shared.Models;
@@ -117,6 +118,16 @@ namespace AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Core.Tests.Orchestration
                    hosts,
                    "AadJoinHost wires its onRealUserJoined callback to the already-constructed DesktopArrivalHost.");

+                // Codex review P2 (2026-08-19): EspAndHelloHost.Start() replays the Shell-Core
+                // ESP exit, but ImeLogTracker only restores its persisted app states in its own
+                // Start() — which happens later. Pin the order that makes ImeLogHost's
+                // onStateRestored nudge necessary, so a future reshuffle either keeps the nudge
+                // meaningful or fails here loudly.
+                AssertBefore<EspAndHelloHost, ImeLogHost>(
+                    hosts,
+                    "the ESP-exit replay runs before the IME app-state restore, which is why " +
+                    "ImeLogHost re-triggers the user-apps-settled synthesis after LoadState.");
+
                // Closure-latch sanity (factory lines ~139/297): the EspAndHelloHost probes close
                // over the ImeLogHost reference, which is assigned during the same factory call —
                // the host must therefore exist in the returned list.
@@ -130,5 +141,40 @@ namespace AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Core.Tests.Orchestration
                }
            }
        }
+
+        [Fact]
+        public void Ime_app_state_callback_is_chained_into_the_user_apps_settled_recheck()
+        {
+            // sits-d Cloud-PC fix (2026-08-19): the AccountSetup synthesis is re-evaluated on every
+            // terminal IME app transition, which only works while the factory keeps this chain
+            // wired. It is five lines that a refactor can drop silently and whose absence costs a
+            // whole class of sessions their completion — so pin it here.
+            var surfaces = CreateSurfaces();
+            var hosts = surfaces.Hosts;
+            try
+            {
+                var imeHost = hosts.OfType<ImeLogHost>().Single();
+                var handler = imeHost.Tracker.OnAppStateChanged;
+
+                Assert.NotNull(handler);
+
+                // Invoking it must reach the re-check without throwing. The re-check is a no-op
+                // here (no ESP exit observed), which is the point — it must stay cheap and silent
+                // on the IME hot path until both facts are in.
+                var pkg = new AppPackageState("app-1", listPos: 0);
+                var ex = Record.Exception(() => handler!(
+                    pkg,
+                    AppInstallationState.Installing,
+                    AppInstallationState.Installed));
+                Assert.Null(ex);
+            }
+            finally
+            {
+                foreach (var host in hosts)
+                {
+                    try { host.Dispose(); } catch { /* construction-only test — best-effort cleanup */ }
+                }
+            }
+        }
    }
 }
@@ -0,0 +1,147 @@
+#nullable enable
+using System;
+using AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Core.Monitoring.Enrollment.SystemSignals;
+using AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Core.Orchestration;
+using Xunit;
+
+namespace AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Core.Tests.Orchestration
+{
+    /// <summary>
+    /// The Shell-Core ESP-exit replay is RESTART RECOVERY: it re-reads observations the agent could
+    /// not make because no agent process was running. The window is therefore measured against the
+    /// previous run's last known liveness, not guessed from a constant.
+    /// <para>
+    /// Why a constant is not enough (Codex review P2): the scheduled task carries a BootTrigger
+    /// only, with no restart-on-failure. A crashed agent does not come back until the NEXT BOOT —
+    /// possibly hours later, long after Windows wrote the final ESP exit. Five minutes would lose
+    /// it every time.
+    /// </para>
+    /// </summary>
+    public sealed class EspExitBackfillLookbackPolicyTests
+    {
+        private static readonly DateTime Now = new DateTime(2026, 8, 19, 8, 43, 16, DateTimeKind.Utc);
+        private const int Default = ShellCoreTracker.BackfillLookbackMinutes;
+
+        private static int Resolve(string? exitType, DateTime? lastAlive = null, DateTime? bootUtc = null)
+            => DefaultComponentFactory.ResolveEspExitBackfillLookbackMinutes(exitType, bootUtc, lastAlive, Now);
+
+        // ---- no previous run => nothing to recover ---------------------------------------
+
+        [Theory]
+        [InlineData("first_run")]
+        [InlineData("FIRST_RUN")]
+        [InlineData("")]
+        [InlineData(null)]
+        public void No_previous_run_means_no_replay(string? exitType)
+        {
+            Assert.Equal(0, Resolve(exitType));
+        }
+
+        [Fact]
+        public void First_run_stays_off_even_with_timestamps_available()
+        {
+            // The exit type decides, not the presence of a timestamp.
+            Assert.Equal(0, Resolve("first_run", lastAlive: Now.AddHours(-3), bootUtc: Now.AddHours(-3)));
+        }
+
+        // ---- the default is a floor, never a ceiling --------------------------------------
+
+        [Theory]
+        [InlineData("clean")]
+        [InlineData("hard_kill")]
+        [InlineData("exception_crash")]
+        [InlineData("reboot_kill")]
+        public void Without_any_timestamp_the_default_applies(string exitType)
+        {
+            Assert.Equal(Default, Resolve(exitType));
+        }
+
+        [Fact]
+        public void A_restart_that_returned_within_seconds_keeps_the_default()
+        {
+            Assert.Equal(Default, Resolve("clean", lastAlive: Now.AddSeconds(-20)));
+        }
+
+        // ---- the crash case P2 is about ---------------------------------------------------
+
+        [Fact]
+        public void A_crash_recovered_only_at_the_next_boot_gets_the_whole_gap()
+        {
+            // BootTrigger-only task: the agent was gone for three hours while the ESP finished.
+            Assert.Equal(181, Resolve("exception_crash", lastAlive: Now.AddHours(-3)));
+        }
+
+        [Fact]
+        public void Snapshot_mtime_carries_the_window_when_no_boot_time_exists()
+        {
+            // LastBootUtc is only populated for hard_kill / reboot_kill — exception_crash and
+            // clean have nothing else to go on.
+            Assert.Equal(46, Resolve("clean", lastAlive: Now.AddMinutes(-45)));
+        }
+
+        // ---- reboot: both inputs available, wider wins ------------------------------------
+
+        [Fact]
+        public void The_wider_of_the_two_inputs_wins()
+        {
+            // Snapshot last written 40 min ago, boot 12 min ago — the gap started at the snapshot.
+            Assert.Equal(41, Resolve("reboot_kill", lastAlive: Now.AddMinutes(-40), bootUtc: Now.AddMinutes(-12)));
+        }
+
+        [Fact]
+        public void Boot_time_alone_still_covers_a_reboot_without_a_snapshot()
+        {
+            Assert.Equal(41, Resolve("reboot_kill", bootUtc: Now.AddMinutes(-40)));
+        }
+
+        // ---- robustness -------------------------------------------------------------------
+
+        [Fact]
+        public void A_timestamp_in_the_future_is_ignored()
+        {
+            // Clock skew across a reboot must never produce a negative window.
+            Assert.Equal(Default, Resolve("reboot_kill", lastAlive: Now.AddMinutes(5), bootUtc: Now.AddMinutes(9)));
+        }
+
+        [Fact]
+        public void A_future_timestamp_does_not_suppress_a_valid_one()
+        {
+            Assert.Equal(31, Resolve("reboot_kill", lastAlive: Now.AddMinutes(9), bootUtc: Now.AddMinutes(-30)));
+        }
+
+        [Fact]
+        public void A_very_long_gap_is_clamped_by_the_tracker()
+        {
+            // The policy may propose more than the cap; ClampLookbackMinutes is the backstop, so
+            // the two together can never produce an unbounded event-log query.
+            var proposed = Resolve("exception_crash", lastAlive: Now.AddHours(-20));
+            Assert.True(proposed > ShellCoreTracker.BackfillLookbackMaxMinutes);
+            Assert.Equal(ShellCoreTracker.BackfillLookbackMaxMinutes,
+                ShellCoreTracker.ClampLookbackMinutes(proposed));
+        }
+
+        // ---- the snapshot probe itself ----------------------------------------------------
+
+        [Fact]
+        public void Missing_snapshot_reads_as_null_not_as_an_exception()
+        {
+            using var tmp = new Harness.TempDirectory();
+            Assert.Null(DefaultComponentFactory.ReadPreviousRunLastAliveUtc(tmp.Path));
+            Assert.Null(DefaultComponentFactory.ReadPreviousRunLastAliveUtc(string.Empty));
+        }
+
+        [Fact]
+        public void An_existing_snapshot_reports_its_write_time()
+        {
+            using var tmp = new Harness.TempDirectory();
+            var path = System.IO.Path.Combine(tmp.Path, "snapshot.json");
+            System.IO.File.WriteAllText(path, "{}");
+
+            var read = DefaultComponentFactory.ReadPreviousRunLastAliveUtc(tmp.Path);
+
+            Assert.NotNull(read);
+            Assert.Equal(DateTimeKind.Utc, read!.Value.Kind);
+            Assert.True((DateTime.UtcNow - read.Value).Duration() < TimeSpan.FromMinutes(5));
+        }
+    }
+}
@@ -0,0 +1,72 @@
+#nullable enable
+using System;
+using AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Core.Logging;
+using AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Core.Orchestration;
+using AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Core.Tests.Harness;
+using Xunit;
+
+namespace AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Core.Tests.Orchestration
+{
+    /// <summary>
+    /// Codex review P2 (2026-08-19) — <see cref="ImeLogHost"/> starts AFTER <c>EspAndHelloHost</c>,
+    /// and <c>ImeLogTracker.Start()</c> restores the persisted package states silently (LoadState
+    /// raises no <c>OnAppStateChanged</c>). On an agent restart the Shell-Core ESP-exit replay
+    /// therefore runs against an empty app list. Without the post-restore nudge the exact reboot
+    /// case the completion recovery exists for — apps already terminal BEFORE the reboot, only the
+    /// final exit lost to the downtime — would still never complete.
+    /// </summary>
+    public sealed class ImeLogHostStateRestoredCallbackTests : IDisposable
+    {
+        private readonly TempDirectory _tmp = new TempDirectory();
+
+        public void Dispose() => _tmp.Dispose();
+
+        private ImeLogHost CreateHost(Action? onStateRestored)
+            => new ImeLogHost(
+                sessionId: "s",
+                tenantId: "t",
+                logger: new AgentLogger(_tmp.Path, AgentLogLevel.Info),
+                ingress: new FakeSignalIngressSink(),
+                clock: new VirtualClock(new DateTime(2026, 8, 19, 8, 43, 16, DateTimeKind.Utc)),
+                imeLogPathOverride: _tmp.Path,
+                imeMatchLogPath: null,
+                imePatterns: null,
+                stateDirectory: _tmp.Path,
+                whiteGloveSealingPatternIds: null,
+                onStateRestored: onStateRestored);
+
+        [Fact]
+        public void Start_invokes_the_state_restored_callback_exactly_once()
+        {
+            var calls = 0;
+            using var host = CreateHost(() => calls++);
+
+            host.Start();
+            try { Assert.Equal(1, calls); }
+            finally { host.Stop(); }
+        }
+
+        [Fact]
+        public void A_throwing_callback_does_not_break_host_start()
+        {
+            // Fail-soft like every other co-wired callback in the orchestration layer: a broken
+            // re-check must never take the IME log host — the session's primary signal source —
+            // down with it.
+            using var host = CreateHost(() => throw new InvalidOperationException("recheck boom"));
+
+            var ex = Record.Exception(() => host.Start());
+            try { Assert.Null(ex); }
+            finally { host.Stop(); }
+        }
+
+        [Fact]
+        public void No_callback_is_a_valid_configuration()
+        {
+            using var host = CreateHost(null);
+
+            var ex = Record.Exception(() => host.Start());
+            try { Assert.Null(ex); }
+            finally { host.Stop(); }
+        }
+    }
+}
@@ -131,4 +131,117 @@ namespace AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Core.Tests.Program
                    trySchtasks: null!));
        }
    }
+
+    /// <summary>
+    /// Pins the restricted-token launch ordering introduced 2026-08-17: MDM LOB MSI installs
+    /// (EnterpriseDesktopAppManagement CSP → msiexec chain) carry a SYSTEM token with
+    /// SeTimeZonePrivilege / SeSystemEnvironmentPrivilege REMOVED, and WMI Win32_Process.Create
+    /// duplicates the caller token onto the runtime — so on a stripped token the Scheduled Task
+    /// (fresh full SYSTEM token) must launch first and WMI is only the degraded fallback. These
+    /// tests fail loudly if a refactor silently restores WMI-first for the stripped-token case
+    /// or drops the process verification after schtasks /Run.
+    /// </summary>
+    public sealed class InstallModeRestrictedTokenLaunchTests
+    {
+        [Fact]
+        public void Schtasks_success_with_verified_pid_returns_schtasks_and_never_touches_wmi()
+        {
+            var wmiInvocations = 0;
+
+            var result = AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Program.DecideRestrictedTokenLaunchOutcome(
+                trySchtasks: () => 0,
+                verifyRuntimePid: () => 4321,
+                tryWmi: () => { wmiInvocations++; return new AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Program.WmiLaunchAttempt(0u, 9999); });
+
+            Assert.Equal(AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Program.RuntimeLaunchMethod.Schtasks, result.Method);
+            Assert.Equal(4321, result.Pid);
+            Assert.Equal(0, result.SchtasksExitCode);
+            Assert.Equal(0, wmiInvocations);
+            Assert.Contains("full SYSTEM token", result.Diagnostic);
+            Assert.Contains("PID=4321", result.Diagnostic);
+        }
+
+        [Fact]
+        public void Schtasks_queued_but_no_process_appears_falls_back_to_wmi()
+        {
+            var result = AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Program.DecideRestrictedTokenLaunchOutcome(
+                trySchtasks: () => 0,
+                verifyRuntimePid: () => 0,
+                tryWmi: () => new AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Program.WmiLaunchAttempt(0u, 777));
+
+            Assert.Equal(AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Program.RuntimeLaunchMethod.Wmi, result.Method);
+            Assert.Equal(777, result.Pid);
+            Assert.Contains("no runtime process appeared", result.Diagnostic);
+        }
+
+        [Fact]
+        public void Schtasks_failure_skips_verification_and_falls_back_to_wmi()
+        {
+            var verifyInvocations = 0;
+
+            var result = AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Program.DecideRestrictedTokenLaunchOutcome(
+                trySchtasks: () => 1,
+                verifyRuntimePid: () => { verifyInvocations++; return 0; },
+                tryWmi: () => new AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Program.WmiLaunchAttempt(0u, 555));
+
+            Assert.Equal(AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Program.RuntimeLaunchMethod.Wmi, result.Method);
+            Assert.Equal(0, verifyInvocations);
+            Assert.Equal(1, result.SchtasksExitCode);
+        }
+
+        [Fact]
+        public void Wmi_fallback_diagnostic_warns_that_the_runtime_stays_degraded()
+        {
+            // Support line: a restricted-token WMI launch means timezone auto-set / firmware
+            // reads will fail for this runtime instance — the log must say so explicitly.
+            var result = AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Program.DecideRestrictedTokenLaunchOutcome(
+                trySchtasks: () => 1,
+                verifyRuntimePid: () => 0,
+                tryWmi: () => new AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Program.WmiLaunchAttempt(0u, 555));
+
+            Assert.Contains("RESTRICTED TOKEN", result.Diagnostic);
+            Assert.Contains("timezone", result.Diagnostic, StringComparison.OrdinalIgnoreCase);
+        }
+
+        [Fact]
+        public void Both_paths_fail_returns_deferred_with_both_codes_captured()
+        {
+            var result = AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Program.DecideRestrictedTokenLaunchOutcome(
+                trySchtasks: () => 1,
+                verifyRuntimePid: () => 0,
+                tryWmi: () => new AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Program.WmiLaunchAttempt(2u, 0));
+
+            Assert.Equal(AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Program.RuntimeLaunchMethod.Deferred, result.Method);
+            Assert.Equal(0, result.Pid);
+            Assert.Equal(2u, result.WmiReturnValue);
+            Assert.Equal(1, result.SchtasksExitCode);
+            Assert.Contains("BootTrigger", result.Diagnostic);
+        }
+
+        [Fact]
+        public void Wmi_returnvalue_zero_but_pid_zero_does_not_count_as_success()
+        {
+            var result = AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Program.DecideRestrictedTokenLaunchOutcome(
+                trySchtasks: () => 1,
+                verifyRuntimePid: () => 0,
+                tryWmi: () => new AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Program.WmiLaunchAttempt(0u, 0));
+
+            Assert.Equal(AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Program.RuntimeLaunchMethod.Deferred, result.Method);
+        }
+
+        [Fact]
+        public void Null_delegates_are_rejected()
+        {
+            Func<int> zero = () => 0;
+            Func<AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Program.WmiLaunchAttempt> wmi =
+                () => new AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Program.WmiLaunchAttempt(0u, 1);
+
+            Assert.Throws<ArgumentNullException>(
+                () => AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Program.DecideRestrictedTokenLaunchOutcome(null!, zero, wmi));
+            Assert.Throws<ArgumentNullException>(
+                () => AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Program.DecideRestrictedTokenLaunchOutcome(zero, null!, wmi));
+            Assert.Throws<ArgumentNullException>(
+                () => AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Program.DecideRestrictedTokenLaunchOutcome(zero, zero, null!));
+        }
+    }
 }
@@ -53,7 +53,7 @@ namespace AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Core.Tests.Program
            using var tmp = new TempDirectory();
            var logDir = Path.Combine(tmp.Path, "logs");
            Directory.CreateDirectory(logDir);
-            var crashPath = Path.Combine(logDir, "crash_20260421_100000.log");
+            var crashPath = Path.Combine(logDir, "crash-20260421-100000.log");
            File.WriteAllText(crashPath, "[2026-04-21T10:00:00Z] FATAL: InvalidOperationException: simulated crash");

            var summary = AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Program.DetectPreviousExit(tmp.Path, logDir);
@@ -312,7 +312,7 @@ namespace AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Core.Tests.Program

            AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Program.WriteCrashLog(logDir, new InvalidOperationException("boom"));

-            var files = Directory.GetFiles(logDir, "crash_*.log");
+            var files = Directory.GetFiles(logDir, "crash-*.log");
            Assert.Single(files);
            var content = File.ReadAllText(files[0]);
            Assert.Contains("FATAL:", content);
@@ -0,0 +1,27 @@
+using AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2;
+using Xunit;
+
+namespace AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Core.Tests.Program
+{
+    /// <summary>
+    /// Environment-stable pins for the token probe. Whether SeTimeZonePrivilege itself is
+    /// held depends on the test runner's token, so it is NOT asserted here — only the two
+    /// contracts that never vary: a privilege present in every Windows token reports held,
+    /// and an unknown privilege name fails soft to "held" (the probe must never flip the
+    /// launch ordering because of its own defect).
+    /// </summary>
+    public sealed class TokenPrivilegeProbeTests
+    {
+        [Fact]
+        public void SeChangeNotifyPrivilege_is_held_in_every_token()
+        {
+            Assert.True(TokenPrivilegeProbe.IsPrivilegeHeld("SeChangeNotifyPrivilege"));
+        }
+
+        [Fact]
+        public void Unknown_privilege_name_fails_soft_to_held()
+        {
+            Assert.True(TokenPrivilegeProbe.IsPrivilegeHeld("SeDefinitelyNotARealPrivilege"));
+        }
+    }
+}
@@ -3,6 +3,7 @@ using System.Collections.Generic;
 using System.Linq;
 using AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Core.Logging;
 using AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Core.Monitoring.Enrollment.Ime;
+using AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Core.Monitoring.Enrollment.SystemSignals;
 using AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Core.SignalAdapters;
 using AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Core.Tests.Harness;
 using AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Core.Tests.Orchestration;
@@ -461,6 +462,64 @@ namespace AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Core.Tests.SignalAdapters
            Assert.Equal("IME Agent version: 1.101.109.0", info.Payload[SignalPayloadKeys.Message]);
        }

+        [Fact]
+        public void ImeTokenFailure_emits_warning_event_with_error_code()
+        {
+            using var f = new ImeLogTrackerAdapterFixture();
+            using var adapter = new ImeLogTrackerAdapter(f.Tracker, f.Ingress, f.Clock);
+
+            adapter.TriggerImeTokenFailureFromTest("3399614467",
+                "Failed to get AAD token. len = 0 using client id x and resource id y, errorCode = 3399614467");
+
+            var info = Assert.Single(f.InfoEvents(SharedEventTypes.ImeTokenFailure));
+            Assert.Equal("ImeLogTracker", info.Payload![SignalPayloadKeys.Source]);
+            Assert.Equal("3399614467", info.Payload["errorCode"]);
+            Assert.Contains("errorCode=3399614467", info.Payload[SignalPayloadKeys.Message]);
+            Assert.Contains("Failed to get AAD token", info.Payload["logLine"]);
+        }
+
+        [Fact]
+        public void ImeTokenFailure_grace_window_emits_only_without_token_success()
+        {
+            // "Failed to get AAD token" appears routinely during the device phase (no user
+            // token yet) — the Warning must fire only when NO success follows for the whole
+            // grace window.
+            using var f = new ImeLogTrackerAdapterFixture();
+            using var adapter = new ImeLogTrackerAdapter(f.Tracker, f.Ingress, f.Clock);
+            var t0 = DateTime.UtcNow;
+
+            // Failure resolved by a token success: never emitted, not even after the window.
+            f.Tracker.HandleImeTokenFailureForTest("100", "line a");
+            f.Tracker.NoteTokenSuccessForTest();
+            f.Tracker.CheckPendingTokenFailure(t0 + ImeLogTracker.TokenFailureGraceWindow + TimeSpan.FromMinutes(1));
+            Assert.Empty(f.InfoEvents(SharedEventTypes.ImeTokenFailure));
+
+            // Unresolved failure: silent before the window, one Warning after it.
+            f.Tracker.HandleImeTokenFailureForTest("100", "line b");
+            f.Tracker.CheckPendingTokenFailure(t0 + TimeSpan.FromMinutes(5));
+            Assert.Empty(f.InfoEvents(SharedEventTypes.ImeTokenFailure));
+            f.Tracker.CheckPendingTokenFailure(t0 + ImeLogTracker.TokenFailureGraceWindow + TimeSpan.FromHours(1));
+            Assert.Single(f.InfoEvents(SharedEventTypes.ImeTokenFailure));
+
+            // Same code again: re-armed window expires but the per-code dedup suppresses.
+            f.Tracker.HandleImeTokenFailureForTest("100", "line c");
+            f.Tracker.CheckPendingTokenFailure(t0 + TimeSpan.FromHours(3));
+            Assert.Single(f.InfoEvents(SharedEventTypes.ImeTokenFailure));
+        }
+
+        [Fact]
+        public void ImeTokenFailure_empty_error_code_reports_unknown()
+        {
+            using var f = new ImeLogTrackerAdapterFixture();
+            using var adapter = new ImeLogTrackerAdapter(f.Tracker, f.Ingress, f.Clock);
+
+            adapter.TriggerImeTokenFailureFromTest("", null!);
+
+            var info = Assert.Single(f.InfoEvents(SharedEventTypes.ImeTokenFailure));
+            Assert.Equal("unknown", info.Payload!["errorCode"]);
+            Assert.False(info.Payload.ContainsKey("logLine"));
+        }
+
        [Fact]
        public void ImeAgentVersion_null_or_empty_is_skipped()
        {
@@ -487,6 +546,70 @@ namespace AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Core.Tests.SignalAdapters
            Assert.Equal(2, f.InfoEvents(SharedEventTypes.ImeAgentVersion).Count);
        }

+        [Fact]
+        public void ImeAgentVersion_enriches_with_csp_install_source_when_probe_matches()
+        {
+            using var f = new ImeLogTrackerAdapterFixture();
+            using var adapter = new ImeLogTrackerAdapter(f.Tracker, f.Ingress, f.Clock);
+            using var _probe = new ImeMsiInstallSourceProbe.ScopedOverride((v, _) =>
+                ImeMsiInstallSourceProbe.SelectBestMatch(
+                    new[]
+                    {
+                        new ImeMsiInstallSourceProbe.MsiEntry(
+                            "{6A7DFC50-0395-4E1E-BF84-ED1404E72051}",
+                            "1.104.102.0",
+                            "https://imeswdb-afd-secondary.manage.microsoft.com/IntuneWindowsAgent.msi"),
+                    },
+                    v));
+
+            adapter.TriggerImeAgentVersionFromTest("1.104.102.0");
+
+            var info = Assert.Single(f.InfoEvents(SharedEventTypes.ImeAgentVersion));
+            Assert.Equal("1.104.102.0", info.Payload!["agentVersion"]);
+            Assert.Equal(
+                "https://imeswdb-afd-secondary.manage.microsoft.com/IntuneWindowsAgent.msi",
+                info.Payload["msiDownloadUrl"]);
+            Assert.Equal("{6A7DFC50-0395-4E1E-BF84-ED1404E72051}", info.Payload["msiProductCode"]);
+            Assert.Equal("1.104.102.0", info.Payload["msiProductVersion"]);
+            Assert.Equal("productVersion", info.Payload["msiMatchedBy"]);
+        }
+
+        [Fact]
+        public void ImeAgentVersion_without_csp_match_omits_msi_keys()
+        {
+            // Assembly default (TestAssemblyInit) forces the probe to Empty.
+            using var f = new ImeLogTrackerAdapterFixture();
+            using var adapter = new ImeLogTrackerAdapter(f.Tracker, f.Ingress, f.Clock);
+
+            adapter.TriggerImeAgentVersionFromTest("1.104.102.0");
+
+            var info = Assert.Single(f.InfoEvents(SharedEventTypes.ImeAgentVersion));
+            Assert.False(info.Payload!.ContainsKey("msiDownloadUrl"));
+            Assert.False(info.Payload.ContainsKey("msiProductCode"));
+            Assert.False(info.Payload.ContainsKey("msiProductVersion"));
+            Assert.False(info.Payload.ContainsKey("msiMatchedBy"));
+        }
+
+        [Fact]
+        public void ImeAgentVersion_probe_result_is_cached_per_version()
+        {
+            using var f = new ImeLogTrackerAdapterFixture();
+            using var adapter = new ImeLogTrackerAdapter(f.Tracker, f.Ingress, f.Clock);
+            int probeCalls = 0;
+            using var _probe = new ImeMsiInstallSourceProbe.ScopedOverride((_, _) =>
+            {
+                probeCalls++;
+                return ImeMsiInstallSource.Empty;
+            });
+
+            adapter.TriggerImeAgentVersionFromTest("1.104.102.0");
+            adapter.TriggerImeAgentVersionFromTest("1.104.102.0");
+            adapter.TriggerImeAgentVersionFromTest("1.105.0.0");
+
+            Assert.Equal(2, probeCalls); // one read per distinct version, not per event
+            Assert.Equal(3, f.InfoEvents(SharedEventTypes.ImeAgentVersion).Count);
+        }
+
        [Fact]
        public void DoTelemetry_emits_do_telemetry_info_event_with_do_fields()
        {
@@ -165,6 +165,10 @@ namespace AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Core.Tests.Termination
            public IReadOnlyCollection<string> StarvedAlreadyReportedOverride { get; set; } = Array.Empty<string>();
            public List<string> TerminationActionLog { get; } = new List<string>();
            public TimeSpan SpoolDrainPeriodOverride { get; set; } = TimeSpan.Zero;
+            // Session bc803955 — DevicePrep app-wave settle wait. Zero (default) disables the
+            // wait so the existing timing-sensitive tests stay untouched; the dedicated settle
+            // tests opt in with a real budget.
+            public TimeSpan DevicePrepAppSettleWaitOverride { get; set; } = TimeSpan.Zero;
            // WG Part-1 straggler-ordering fix — the production wiring passes
            // orchestrator.StopCollectorHosts, whose collectors emit their one-shot
            // stop-time stragglers (network_bandwidth_estimate, …) through Post during
@@ -210,7 +214,8 @@ namespace AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Core.Tests.Termination
                    stopPeripheralCollectors: StopPeripheralCollectorsHook,
                    // Zero out the timing ceremony for tests — production paths are covered by
                    // the dedicated V1-parity tests below which opt back in via their own Rig.
-                    lateEventGracePeriod: TimeSpan.Zero);
+                    lateEventGracePeriod: TimeSpan.Zero,
+                    devicePrepAppSettleWait: DevicePrepAppSettleWaitOverride);
            }

            public void Dispose() => Tmp.Dispose();
@@ -317,6 +322,91 @@ namespace AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Core.Tests.Termination
            Assert.True(File.Exists(statusPath), "final-status.json should be written even when ShowEnrollmentSummary=false");
        }

+        // ---- Session bc803955 — DevicePrep app-wave settle wait ----
+
+        private static DecisionState DevicePrepState(SessionStage stage) =>
+            new DecisionStateBuilder(DecisionState.CreateInitial("S1", "T1"))
+            {
+                Stage = stage,
+                ScenarioProfile = new EnrollmentScenarioProfile(
+                    mode: EnrollmentMode.DevicePreparation,
+                    joinMode: EnrollmentJoinMode.Unknown,
+                    espConfig: EspConfig.Unknown,
+                    preProvisioningSide: PreProvisioningSide.None,
+                    confidence: ProfileConfidence.Medium,
+                    evidenceOrdinal: 1,
+                    reason: "test"),
+            }.Build();
+
+        [Fact]
+        public void Handle_devicePrep_settle_wait_catches_late_app_wave_for_dialog()
+        {
+            using var rig = new Rig();
+            rig.State = DevicePrepState(SessionStage.Completed);
+            rig.DevicePrepAppSettleWaitOverride = TimeSpan.FromSeconds(10);
+
+            // Simulate the IME user-context sync landing AFTER termination handling began
+            // (AppWorkload.log flush latency) — the wave arrives 500ms in, well before the
+            // 10s budget; the settle loop must pick it up and the dialog must render it.
+            var waveThread = new Thread(() =>
+            {
+                Thread.Sleep(500);
+                var app = new AppPackageState("app-late", 0);
+                app.UpdateState(AppInstallationState.Downloading);
+                TestHelpers.SetTargeted(app, AppTargeted.User);
+                rig.Packages.Add(app);
+            });
+            waveThread.Start();
+
+            var sw = System.Diagnostics.Stopwatch.StartNew();
+            rig.Build().Handle(sender: null!,
+                Args(EnrollmentTerminationReason.DecisionTerminalStage, EnrollmentTerminationOutcome.Succeeded, SessionStage.Completed));
+            sw.Stop();
+            waveThread.Join();
+
+            var statusJson = File.ReadAllText(Path.Combine(rig.StateDir, SummaryDialogLauncher.FinalStatusFileName));
+            Assert.Contains("\"totalApps\": 1", statusJson);
+            // Early exit: the wave arrived at ~500ms — the handler must not sit out the full 10s.
+            Assert.True(sw.Elapsed < TimeSpan.FromSeconds(8),
+                $"settle wait should exit early once packages arrive (took {sw.Elapsed.TotalSeconds:0.0}s)");
+        }
+
+        [Fact]
+        public void Handle_devicePrep_settle_wait_is_bounded_when_no_apps_arrive()
+        {
+            using var rig = new Rig();
+            rig.State = DevicePrepState(SessionStage.Completed);
+            rig.DevicePrepAppSettleWaitOverride = TimeSpan.FromMilliseconds(600);
+
+            var sw = System.Diagnostics.Stopwatch.StartNew();
+            rig.Build().Handle(sender: null!,
+                Args(EnrollmentTerminationReason.DecisionTerminalStage, EnrollmentTerminationOutcome.Succeeded, SessionStage.Completed));
+            sw.Stop();
+
+            // Budget elapsed (>=600ms) and the dialog still rendered — just without app data.
+            Assert.True(sw.Elapsed >= TimeSpan.FromMilliseconds(600),
+                $"bounded wait should consume its budget when no data arrives (took {sw.Elapsed.TotalMilliseconds:0}ms)");
+            var statusJson = File.ReadAllText(Path.Combine(rig.StateDir, SummaryDialogLauncher.FinalStatusFileName));
+            Assert.Contains("\"totalApps\": 0", statusJson);
+        }
+
+        [Fact]
+        public void Handle_non_devicePrep_does_not_wait_even_with_empty_packages()
+        {
+            using var rig = new Rig();
+            // Classic/unknown mode + empty package list — the settle wait must not engage.
+            rig.State = new DecisionStateBuilder(DecisionState.CreateInitial("S1", "T1")) { Stage = SessionStage.Completed }.Build();
+            rig.DevicePrepAppSettleWaitOverride = TimeSpan.FromSeconds(10);
+
+            var sw = System.Diagnostics.Stopwatch.StartNew();
+            rig.Build().Handle(sender: null!,
+                Args(EnrollmentTerminationReason.DecisionTerminalStage, EnrollmentTerminationOutcome.Succeeded, SessionStage.Completed));
+            sw.Stop();
+
+            Assert.True(sw.Elapsed < TimeSpan.FromSeconds(8),
+                $"non-DevicePrep termination must not settle-wait (took {sw.Elapsed.TotalSeconds:0.0}s)");
+        }
+
        [Fact]
        public void Handle_writes_enrollment_complete_marker_on_non_whiteglove_terminal()
        {
@@ -1407,6 +1497,26 @@ namespace AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Core.Tests.Termination
            Assert.DoesNotContain("app_install_starved", rig.EmittedEventTypes);
        }

+        [Fact]
+        public void StarvedApps_skipped_on_device_preparation()
+        {
+            // afee7ae0: WDP has no ESP apps gate — post-desktop installs are the designed
+            // order, so the sweep would report every pending app as noise (10+ events on a
+            // normal session). The per-app data still travels via app_tracking_summary.
+            using var rig = new Rig();
+            rig.State = DevicePrepState(SessionStage.Completed);
+            rig.StarvedAppsOverride = new[]
+            {
+                BuildStarvedApp("app-pending-1", "Contoso Backgrounds"),
+                BuildStarvedApp("app-pending-2", "Contoso Tools"),
+            };
+
+            rig.Build().Handle(sender: null!,
+                Args(EnrollmentTerminationReason.DecisionTerminalStage, EnrollmentTerminationOutcome.Succeeded, SessionStage.Completed));
+
+            Assert.DoesNotContain("app_install_starved", rig.EmittedEventTypes);
+        }
+
        [Fact]
        public void PromoteActiveInstalls_skipped_on_effect_infrastructure_failure()
        {
@@ -1,8 +1,10 @@
 #nullable enable
 using System;
+using System.Collections.Generic;
 using System.Linq;
 using AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Core.Logging;
 using AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Core.Monitoring.Enrollment.Ime;
+using AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Core.Monitoring.Telemetry.Office;
 using AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Core.Orchestration;
 using AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Core.Termination;
 using AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Core.Tests.Harness;
@@ -508,6 +510,121 @@ namespace AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Core.Tests.Termination

            Assert.Null(status.SignalTimestamps);
        }
+
+        // ---- Session bc803955 — synthetic Office row from the C2R detector's persisted state ----
+
+        private static FinalStatus BuildWithOffice(OfficeInstallStateData? officeState, IReadOnlyList<AppPackageState>? packages = null) =>
+            FinalStatusBuilder.Build(StateWith(SessionStage.Completed),
+                Args(EnrollmentTerminationReason.DecisionTerminalStage, EnrollmentTerminationOutcome.Succeeded, SessionStage.Completed),
+                packageStates: packages, agentStartTimeUtc: StartUtc, officeState: officeState);
+
+        [Fact]
+        public void Build_office_completed_adds_device_row_with_duration_and_counts()
+        {
+            var office = new OfficeInstallStateData
+            {
+                State = OfficeInstallStateData.StateCompleted,
+                StartedAtUtc = StartUtc.AddMinutes(1),
+                CompletedAtUtc = StartUtc.AddMinutes(4).AddSeconds(22),
+                VersionReached = "16.0.20228.20190",
+            };
+
+            var status = BuildWithOffice(office);
+
+            var row = Assert.Single(status.PackageStatesByPhase["Device"]);
+            Assert.Equal("Microsoft 365 Apps (16.0.20228.20190)", row.AppName);
+            Assert.Equal("Installed", row.State);
+            Assert.True(row.IsCompleted);
+            Assert.False(row.IsError);
+            Assert.Equal(202, row.DurationSeconds);
+            Assert.Equal(office.StartedAtUtc.Value.ToString("o"), row.StartedAt);
+
+            Assert.Equal(1, status.AppSummary.TotalApps);
+            Assert.Equal(1, status.AppSummary.CompletedApps);
+            Assert.Equal(0, status.AppSummary.ErrorCount);
+            Assert.Equal(1, status.AppSummary.AppsByPhase["Device"]);
+        }
+
+        [Fact]
+        public void Build_office_active_row_is_installing_without_completion()
+        {
+            var office = new OfficeInstallStateData
+            {
+                State = OfficeInstallStateData.StateActive,
+                StartedAtUtc = StartUtc.AddMinutes(1),
+            };
+
+            var status = BuildWithOffice(office);
+
+            var row = Assert.Single(status.PackageStatesByPhase["Device"]);
+            Assert.Equal("Microsoft 365 Apps", row.AppName);
+            Assert.Equal("Installing", row.State);
+            Assert.False(row.IsCompleted);
+            Assert.Null(row.DurationSeconds);
+            Assert.Equal(1, status.AppSummary.TotalApps);
+            Assert.Equal(0, status.AppSummary.CompletedApps);
+        }
+
+        [Fact]
+        public void Build_office_failed_row_counts_device_error()
+        {
+            var office = new OfficeInstallStateData
+            {
+                State = OfficeInstallStateData.StateFailed,
+                StartedAtUtc = StartUtc.AddMinutes(1),
+                CompletedAtUtc = StartUtc.AddMinutes(2),
+            };
+
+            var status = BuildWithOffice(office);
+
+            var row = Assert.Single(status.PackageStatesByPhase["Device"]);
+            Assert.Equal("Error", row.State);
+            Assert.True(row.IsError);
+            Assert.True(row.IsCompleted); // Error is terminal — mirrors IsCompleted()
+            Assert.Equal(1, status.AppSummary.ErrorCount);
+            Assert.Equal(1, status.AppSummary.DeviceErrors);
+        }
+
+        [Theory]
+        [InlineData(OfficeInstallStateData.StatePreinstalled)]
+        [InlineData("garbage")]
+        [InlineData(null)]
+        public void Build_office_preinstalled_or_unknown_adds_no_row(string? state)
+        {
+            var office = state == null ? null : new OfficeInstallStateData { State = state };
+
+            var status = BuildWithOffice(office);
+
+            Assert.Empty(status.PackageStatesByPhase);
+            Assert.Equal(0, status.AppSummary.TotalApps);
+        }
+
+        [Fact]
+        public void Build_office_row_is_prepended_before_ime_device_apps()
+        {
+            using var tmp = new TempDirectory();
+            var logger = new AgentLogger(tmp.Path, AgentLogLevel.Info);
+            var list = new AppPackageStateList(logger);
+            var imeApp = new AppPackageState("app-1", 0);
+            imeApp.UpdateState(AppInstallationState.Installed);
+            TestHelpers.SetTargeted(imeApp, AppTargeted.Device);
+            list.Add(imeApp);
+
+            var office = new OfficeInstallStateData
+            {
+                State = OfficeInstallStateData.StateCompleted,
+                StartedAtUtc = StartUtc,
+                CompletedAtUtc = StartUtc.AddMinutes(3),
+            };
+
+            var status = BuildWithOffice(office, list);
+
+            Assert.Equal(2, status.PackageStatesByPhase["Device"].Count);
+            Assert.StartsWith("Microsoft 365 Apps", status.PackageStatesByPhase["Device"][0].AppName);
+            Assert.Equal(2, status.AppSummary.TotalApps);
+            Assert.Equal(2, status.AppSummary.CompletedApps);
+            Assert.Equal(2, status.AppSummary.AppsByPhase["Device"]);
+        }
    }

    /// <summary>Mini helper for reflection-based field setters — AppPackageState.Targeted is a private-set property.</summary>
@@ -144,6 +144,77 @@ namespace AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Core.Tests.Transport
            Assert.Equal(1 + 2 + 3, snap.TotalBytesUp);
        }

+        [Fact]
+        public async Task Captures_bytes_down_via_buffering_when_content_length_is_missing()
+        {
+            // AutomaticDecompression strips Content-Length on the backend's gzipped JSON —
+            // the pre-fix handler recorded 0 for every such (healthy) response. A non-seekable
+            // stream body reproduces the headerless shape.
+            var metrics = new NetworkMetrics();
+            var inner = new RecordingHttpMessageHandler();
+            var payload = Encoding.UTF8.GetBytes("{\"ok\":true}"); // 11 bytes
+            inner.QueueResponse(() => new HttpResponseMessage(HttpStatusCode.OK)
+            {
+                Content = new StreamContent(new NonSeekableReadStream(payload)),
+            });
+            using var client = BuildClient(metrics, inner);
+
+            using var resp = await client.SendAsync(NewPost(""));
+
+            var snap = metrics.GetSnapshot();
+            Assert.Equal(payload.Length, snap.TotalBytesDown);
+            // Buffering must not consume the body away from the caller.
+            Assert.Equal("{\"ok\":true}", await resp.Content.ReadAsStringAsync());
+        }
+
+        [Fact]
+        public async Task Bytes_down_fails_soft_to_zero_when_buffering_throws()
+        {
+            var metrics = new NetworkMetrics();
+            var inner = new RecordingHttpMessageHandler();
+            inner.QueueResponse(() => new HttpResponseMessage(HttpStatusCode.OK)
+            {
+                Content = new ThrowingContent(),
+            });
+            using var client = BuildClient(metrics, inner);
+
+            // ResponseHeadersRead keeps HttpClient's own post-pipeline buffering out of the
+            // picture — the test isolates the handler's fallback catch (which must swallow
+            // the serialization failure and record 0, never throw).
+            using var resp = await client.SendAsync(NewPost(""), HttpCompletionOption.ResponseHeadersRead);
+
+            var snap = metrics.GetSnapshot();
+            Assert.Equal(1, snap.RequestCount);
+            Assert.Equal(0, snap.TotalBytesDown);
+        }
+
+        /// <summary>Read-only, non-seekable stream — CanSeek=false keeps StreamContent from
+        /// computing a Content-Length, mirroring a decompression-wrapped response body.</summary>
+        private sealed class NonSeekableReadStream : System.IO.Stream
+        {
+            private readonly System.IO.MemoryStream _inner;
+            public NonSeekableReadStream(byte[] data) { _inner = new System.IO.MemoryStream(data); }
+            public override bool CanRead => true;
+            public override bool CanSeek => false;
+            public override bool CanWrite => false;
+            public override long Length => throw new NotSupportedException();
+            public override long Position { get => throw new NotSupportedException(); set => throw new NotSupportedException(); }
+            public override void Flush() { }
+            public override int Read(byte[] buffer, int offset, int count) => _inner.Read(buffer, offset, count);
+            public override long Seek(long offset, System.IO.SeekOrigin origin) => throw new NotSupportedException();
+            public override void SetLength(long value) => throw new NotSupportedException();
+            public override void Write(byte[] buffer, int offset, int count) => throw new NotSupportedException();
+            protected override void Dispose(bool disposing) { if (disposing) _inner.Dispose(); base.Dispose(disposing); }
+        }
+
+        /// <summary>Content whose serialization always fails — drives the fallback's catch path.</summary>
+        private sealed class ThrowingContent : HttpContent
+        {
+            protected override Task SerializeToStreamAsync(System.IO.Stream stream, System.Net.TransportContext? context)
+                => throw new System.IO.IOException("connection dropped mid-body");
+            protected override bool TryComputeLength(out long length) { length = 0; return false; }
+        }
+
        [Fact]
        public void Constructor_rejects_null_metrics()
        {
@@ -40,6 +40,17 @@ namespace AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Core.Tests.Transport
            return this;
        }

+        /// <summary>
+        /// Queues an arbitrary response — for shapes <see cref="QueueStatus"/> can't build,
+        /// e.g. content without a Content-Length header (what AutomaticDecompression leaves
+        /// behind on real compressed responses).
+        /// </summary>
+        public RecordingHttpMessageHandler QueueResponse(Func<HttpResponseMessage> factory)
+        {
+            _script.Enqueue(_ => factory());
+            return this;
+        }
+
        protected override async Task<HttpResponseMessage> SendAsync(
            HttpRequestMessage request,
            CancellationToken cancellationToken)
@@ -221,6 +221,81 @@ namespace AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Core.Tests.Transport
            Assert.Equal(1, System.Threading.Volatile.Read(ref signalled));
        }

+        [Fact]
+        public void PendingBytes_tracks_enqueue_and_shrinks_to_zero_when_all_uploaded()
+        {
+            using var tmp = new TempDirectory();
+            var spool = new TelemetrySpool(tmp.Path, Clock());
+            Assert.Equal(0, spool.PendingBytes);
+
+            spool.Enqueue(EventDraft("a"));
+            spool.Enqueue(EventDraft("b"));
+            spool.Enqueue(EventDraft("c"));
+
+            // PendingBytes must equal the full file size while nothing is uploaded yet
+            // (every line written by Enqueue is still pending).
+            Assert.Equal(spool.SpoolFileSizeBytes, spool.PendingBytes);
+
+            spool.MarkUploaded(2);
+            Assert.Equal(0, spool.PendingBytes);
+            // File keeps its append-only size — the two measures MUST diverge here,
+            // otherwise the pressure trigger regresses to the file-size false positive.
+            Assert.True(spool.SpoolFileSizeBytes > 0);
+        }
+
+        [Fact]
+        public void PendingBytes_after_partial_upload_equals_remaining_tail_line_bytes()
+        {
+            using var tmp = new TempDirectory();
+            var spool = new TelemetrySpool(tmp.Path, Clock());
+            spool.Enqueue(EventDraft("a"));
+            spool.Enqueue(EventDraft("b"));
+            spool.Enqueue(EventDraft("c-longer-rowkey-for-distinct-length"));
+
+            spool.MarkUploaded(1);
+
+            // Expected = on-disk byte length of the last line incl. its trailing \n.
+            var lines = File.ReadAllLines(Path.Combine(tmp.Path, "spool.jsonl"), Encoding.UTF8);
+            var expected = Encoding.UTF8.GetByteCount(lines[2]) + 1;
+            Assert.Equal(expected, spool.PendingBytes);
+        }
+
+        [Fact]
+        public void PendingBytes_is_rehydrated_on_restart_from_pending_tail_only()
+        {
+            using var tmp = new TempDirectory();
+            var s1 = new TelemetrySpool(tmp.Path, Clock());
+            s1.Enqueue(EventDraft("a"));
+            s1.Enqueue(EventDraft("b"));
+            s1.Enqueue(EventDraft("c"));
+            s1.MarkUploaded(1);
+            var expectedPendingBytes = s1.PendingBytes;
+            Assert.True(expectedPendingBytes > 0);
+
+            // Restart: rehydrated PendingBytes must match the pre-restart value exactly
+            // (uploaded prefix excluded), not the full file size.
+            var s2 = new TelemetrySpool(tmp.Path, Clock());
+            Assert.Equal(expectedPendingBytes, s2.PendingBytes);
+            Assert.True(s2.PendingBytes < s2.SpoolFileSizeBytes);
+        }
+
+        [Fact]
+        public void PendingBytes_rehydrate_ignores_corrupt_tail_line()
+        {
+            using var tmp = new TempDirectory();
+            var s1 = new TelemetrySpool(tmp.Path, Clock());
+            s1.Enqueue(EventDraft("a"));
+            var cleanPendingBytes = s1.PendingBytes;
+
+            File.AppendAllText(
+                Path.Combine(tmp.Path, "spool.jsonl"),
+                "{\"Kind\":\"Event\",\"PartitionKey\":\"corrupt-no-",
+                Encoding.UTF8);
+
+            var s2 = new TelemetrySpool(tmp.Path, Clock());
+            Assert.Equal(cleanPendingBytes, s2.PendingBytes);
+        }
+
        [Fact]
        public void Enqueue_without_RequiresImmediateFlush_does_not_raise_ImmediateFlushRequested()
        {
@@ -34,9 +34,9 @@ namespace AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Core.Logging

        private readonly long _maxFileSizeBytes;
        private readonly string _logDirectory;
-        private readonly string _logFileBaseName;   // "agent_20260425"
-        private string _logFilePath;                // mutable — rotates to "_002", "_003" ...
-        private int _rotationSuffix;                // 0 = base file, 2+ = "_002" etc.
+        private readonly string _logFileBaseName;   // "agent"
+        private string _logFilePath;                // mutable — rotates to "-002", "-003" ...
+        private int _rotationSuffix;                // 0 = base file, 2+ = "-002" etc.

        /// <summary>
        /// When true, log entries are also written to Console.Out (same format as the log file).
@@ -55,14 +55,19 @@ namespace AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Core.Logging
                Directory.CreateDirectory(logDirectory);
            }

-            _logFileBaseName = $"agent_{DateTime.Now:yyyyMMdd}";
+            // One canonical name, no date: the agent only lives for the duration of an
+            // enrollment, and a date-based split rotates at local midnight — which can fall
+            // mid-enrollment (local time may still be on the OOBE default timezone). Size
+            // rotation below bounds pathological growth. Legacy `agent_YYYYMMDD*.log` files
+            // from a pre-rename agent are ignored by the suffix probe and left in place.
+            _logFileBaseName = "agent";
            _rotationSuffix = ProbeNextRotationSuffix(logDirectory, _logFileBaseName);
            _logFilePath = BuildLogFilePath();
        }

-        // Picks up the highest existing rotation suffix on the same day so a process restart
-        // doesn't overwrite previous segments. Returns 0 when no log file exists yet — the
-        // first segment uses the unsuffixed name `agent_YYYYMMDD.log`.
+        // Picks up the highest existing rotation suffix so a process restart doesn't
+        // overwrite previous segments. Returns 0 when no log file exists yet — the
+        // first segment uses the unsuffixed name `agent.log`.
        private static int ProbeNextRotationSuffix(string dir, string baseName)
        {
            if (!Directory.Exists(dir)) return 0;
@@ -80,7 +85,7 @@ namespace AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Core.Logging
                    continue;
                }
                if (name.Length > baseName.Length + 1 &&
-                    name.StartsWith(baseName + "_", StringComparison.OrdinalIgnoreCase) &&
+                    name.StartsWith(baseName + "-", StringComparison.OrdinalIgnoreCase) &&
                    int.TryParse(name.Substring(baseName.Length + 1), out var suffix) &&
                    suffix > max)
                {
@@ -97,7 +102,7 @@ namespace AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Core.Logging
        {
            var name = _rotationSuffix < 2
                ? $"{_logFileBaseName}.log"
-                : $"{_logFileBaseName}_{_rotationSuffix:D3}.log";
+                : $"{_logFileBaseName}-{_rotationSuffix:D3}.log";
            return Path.Combine(_logDirectory, name);
        }

@@ -0,0 +1,175 @@
+using System;
+using System.Collections.Generic;
+
+namespace AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Core.Monitoring.Enrollment.Ime
+{
+    /// <summary>How the UTC value of a CMTrace line was arrived at. Recorded as evidence.</summary>
+    public enum CmTraceOffsetOrigin
+    {
+        /// <summary>No offset known — the caller fell back to its own clock.</summary>
+        None = 0,
+
+        /// <summary>The writer declared its offset in the line ("+480"). Authoritative.</summary>
+        Bias = 1,
+
+        /// <summary>Offset measured from a freshly appended line. See <see cref="CmTraceOffsetCalibrator"/>.</summary>
+        Calibrated = 2,
+    }
+
+    /// <summary>
+    /// Measures the UTC offset that the process WRITING a CMTrace log believes it is in.
+    ///
+    /// <para>
+    /// A CMTrace line carries local time and no offset — IME 1.104 writes
+    /// <c>DateTime.Now.TimeOfDay</c> in both of its trace listeners. Converting such a line with
+    /// the agent's own <c>TimeZoneInfo.Local</c> assumes the two processes agree, and they do not:
+    /// both cache their zone at process start and neither follows a later <c>tzutil</c> or a
+    /// Windows auto-timezone change. The resulting error is
+    /// <c>Offset_writer - Offset_agent</c> and is zero only by coincidence. Field measurement over
+    /// 11,068 sessions found 26 sessions carrying a real zone-offset error, from +1 h
+    /// (GMT to W. Europe) to -17 h (a writer still on the Pacific OOBE default while the agent had
+    /// already moved to E. Australia).
+    /// </para>
+    ///
+    /// <para>
+    /// So the offset is MEASURED, not assumed. The tracker tails the log on a 100 ms poll, so a
+    /// line that appeared since the previous pass was written essentially "now":
+    /// <code>
+    ///   candidate = lineLocalTime - agentUtcNow
+    ///   offset    = round(candidate / 15 min) * 15 min
+    ///   lineUtc   = lineLocalTime - offset
+    /// </code>
+    /// Every real UTC offset is a whole multiple of 15 minutes, so the rounding absorbs poll and
+    /// flush latency without ambiguity.
+    /// </para>
+    ///
+    /// <para>
+    /// THE FRESHNESS REQUIREMENT IS WHAT MAKES THIS CORRECT. An anchor must be the newest line of
+    /// a pass in which the file actually GREW. Without that rule a backlog line that happens to be
+    /// an exact multiple of 15 minutes old (30 min, 45 min, ...) rounds to a clean value with zero
+    /// residual and calibrates the offset to a wrong figure — the residual guard alone cannot
+    /// catch it. Callers must only offer anchors they know to be fresh.
+    /// </para>
+    ///
+    /// <para>
+    /// Calibration is kept per source file: IntuneManagementExtension.log and AppWorkload.log are
+    /// written by different processes and can hold different beliefs. Re-calibrating on every
+    /// fresh anchor makes this self-healing — if the writing process restarts and picks up the
+    /// current zone, the measurement follows within one poll.
+    /// </para>
+    /// </summary>
+    public sealed class CmTraceOffsetCalibrator
+    {
+        /// <summary>Grid that every real UTC offset sits on.</summary>
+        internal static readonly TimeSpan OffsetGrid = TimeSpan.FromMinutes(15);
+
+        /// <summary>
+        /// How far a candidate may sit off the grid before it is rejected. Poll latency (100 ms)
+        /// plus the writer's flush latency are far below this; anything larger means the anchor
+        /// was not actually fresh.
+        /// </summary>
+        internal static readonly TimeSpan MaxGridResidual = TimeSpan.FromMinutes(2);
+
+        /// <summary>Real UTC offsets span UTC-12 (Dateline) to UTC+14 (Line Islands).</summary>
+        internal static readonly TimeSpan MinOffset = TimeSpan.FromHours(-12);
+
+        /// <summary>Upper bound of a real UTC offset. See <see cref="MinOffset"/>.</summary>
+        internal static readonly TimeSpan MaxOffset = TimeSpan.FromHours(14);
+
+        private sealed class Anchor
+        {
+            public TimeSpan Offset;
+            public DateTime LocalTimestamp;
+        }
+
+        private readonly object _lock = new object();
+
+        private readonly Dictionary<string, Anchor> _bySource =
+            new Dictionary<string, Anchor>(StringComparer.OrdinalIgnoreCase);
+
+        /// <summary>
+        /// Offer a freshly appended line as a calibration anchor.
+        /// <para>
+        /// The caller MUST only pass a line it knows to be fresh — the newest line of a pass in
+        /// which the file grew. See the freshness note on this class.
+        /// </para>
+        /// </summary>
+        /// <param name="sourceKey">Log file identity; the file name is enough.</param>
+        /// <param name="localTimestamp">The line's local time exactly as written (Kind is ignored).</param>
+        /// <param name="agentUtcNow">The agent's UTC clock at parse time.</param>
+        /// <returns><c>true</c> when the anchor was accepted and the offset updated.</returns>
+        public bool TryCalibrate(string sourceKey, DateTime localTimestamp, DateTime agentUtcNow)
+        {
+            if (string.IsNullOrEmpty(sourceKey)) return false;
+
+            var candidate = DateTime.SpecifyKind(localTimestamp, DateTimeKind.Unspecified)
+                          - DateTime.SpecifyKind(agentUtcNow, DateTimeKind.Unspecified);
+
+            var gridUnits = Math.Round(candidate.TotalMinutes / OffsetGrid.TotalMinutes,
+                                       MidpointRounding.AwayFromZero);
+            var offset = TimeSpan.FromMinutes(gridUnits * OffsetGrid.TotalMinutes);
+
+            // Off-grid by more than the tolerance: the anchor was not fresh, or the writer's own
+            // clock is broken. Either way it must not become the offset.
+            if ((candidate - offset).Duration() > MaxGridResidual) return false;
+
+            // Not a value any real timezone can produce.
+            if (offset < MinOffset || offset > MaxOffset) return false;
+
+            lock (_lock)
+            {
+                if (_bySource.TryGetValue(sourceKey, out var existing))
+                {
+                    // Only ever move the anchor forward. A line older than the current anchor
+                    // carries nothing newer and could re-introduce a stale belief.
+                    if (localTimestamp <= existing.LocalTimestamp) return false;
+                    existing.Offset = offset;
+                    existing.LocalTimestamp = localTimestamp;
+                }
+                else
+                {
+                    _bySource[sourceKey] = new Anchor
+                    {
+                        Offset = offset,
+                        LocalTimestamp = localTimestamp,
+                    };
+                }
+            }
+
+            return true;
+        }
+
+        /// <summary>The offset measured for this source, when one has been established.</summary>
+        public bool TryGetOffset(string sourceKey, out TimeSpan offset)
+        {
+            offset = TimeSpan.Zero;
+            if (string.IsNullOrEmpty(sourceKey)) return false;
+
+            lock (_lock)
+            {
+                Anchor anchor;
+                if (!_bySource.TryGetValue(sourceKey, out anchor)) return false;
+                offset = anchor.Offset;
+                return true;
+            }
+        }
+
+        /// <summary>
+        /// Convert a line's local time to UTC using the measured offset. Returns <c>false</c> when
+        /// this source has not been calibrated yet — the caller then picks its own fallback and
+        /// should mark the result as not source-grounded.
+        /// </summary>
+        public bool TryResolveUtc(string sourceKey, DateTime localTimestamp, out DateTime utc)
+        {
+            utc = default(DateTime);
+
+            TimeSpan offset;
+            if (!TryGetOffset(sourceKey, out offset)) return false;
+
+            utc = DateTime.SpecifyKind(
+                DateTime.SpecifyKind(localTimestamp, DateTimeKind.Unspecified) - offset,
+                DateTimeKind.Utc);
+            return true;
+        }
+    }
+}
@@ -25,6 +25,71 @@ namespace AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Core.Monitoring.Enrollment.Ime
        private DateTime _impersonationLastRollupUtc = DateTime.MinValue;
        private static readonly TimeSpan ImpersonationRollupInterval = TimeSpan.FromSeconds(60);

+        // "Failed to get AAD token" is logged ROUTINELY during the device phase (no user
+        // token exists yet — field-confirmed: the line appears en masse in every enrollment,
+        // Oliver 2026-08-18). A failure is therefore only meaningful when NO token success
+        // follows: the failure is held pending, any IME-TOKEN-SUCCESS match clears it, and
+        // the Warning fires only after the grace window elapses without a success. Genuine
+        // auth outages (WAM broken, conditional access, network) run long enough to hit it.
+        // Not persisted across restarts — failures keep arriving, the window re-arms.
+        internal static readonly TimeSpan TokenFailureGraceWindow = TimeSpan.FromMinutes(30);
+
+        private sealed class PendingTokenFailure
+        {
+            public string Code = "unknown";
+            public string Excerpt = string.Empty;
+            public DateTime FirstFailureUtc;
+        }
+
+        private PendingTokenFailure _pendingTokenFailure;
+        // Dedup per distinct error code so a persistent outage yields one Warning total.
+        private readonly HashSet<string> _reportedTokenFailureCodes = new HashSet<string>(StringComparer.OrdinalIgnoreCase);
+
+        private void HandleImeTokenFailure(string errorCode, string message)
+        {
+            if (_pendingTokenFailure != null) return; // earliest unresolved failure wins
+
+            var code = string.IsNullOrEmpty(errorCode) ? "unknown" : errorCode.Trim();
+            var excerpt = message ?? string.Empty;
+            if (excerpt.Length > 300) excerpt = excerpt.Substring(0, 300);
+
+            _pendingTokenFailure = new PendingTokenFailure
+            {
+                Code = code,
+                Excerpt = excerpt,
+                // Source-line time so a late-starting agent replaying an ongoing outage
+                // ages the window correctly; a success later in the same log still clears
+                // before the expiry check runs (lines are drained first, expiry after).
+                FirstFailureUtc = LastMatchedLogTimestamp ?? DateTime.UtcNow,
+            };
+        }
+
+        private void ClearPendingTokenFailure()
+        {
+            if (_pendingTokenFailure == null) return;
+            _logger.Debug($"ImeLogTracker: token success observed — pending token failure (errorCode={_pendingTokenFailure.Code}) cleared");
+            _pendingTokenFailure = null;
+        }
+
+        /// <summary>Called once per poll cycle after the log drain (and testable directly).</summary>
+        internal void CheckPendingTokenFailure(DateTime nowUtc)
+        {
+            var pending = _pendingTokenFailure;
+            if (pending == null) return;
+            if (nowUtc - pending.FirstFailureUtc < TokenFailureGraceWindow) return;
+
+            _pendingTokenFailure = null; // next failure line re-arms a fresh window
+            if (!_reportedTokenFailureCodes.Add(pending.Code)) return;
+
+            _logger.Warning($"ImeLogTracker: IME token acquisition failing for >= {TokenFailureGraceWindow.TotalMinutes:0} min without a success (errorCode={pending.Code})");
+            OnImeTokenFailure?.Invoke(pending.Code, pending.Excerpt);
+        }
+
+        // Test seams: drive the pending/clear/expiry cycle without the regex pipeline.
+        internal void HandleImeTokenFailureForTest(string errorCode, string message)
+            => HandleImeTokenFailure(errorCode, message);
+        internal void NoteTokenSuccessForTest() => ClearPendingTokenFailure();
+
        private void HandleImeImpersonation(string user)
        {
            var current = string.IsNullOrEmpty(user) ? "(unknown)" : user;
@@ -42,7 +42,10 @@ namespace AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Core.Monitoring.Enrollment.Ime
            return false;
        }

-        private async Task CheckLogFilesAsync(CancellationToken token)
+        /// <remarks>internal (not private) as a test seam: the offset calibration depends on the
+        /// pass structure — first observation versus a later pass over a grown file — which only
+        /// a real read cycle exercises. Production still reaches it solely from the poll loop.</remarks>
+        internal async Task CheckLogFilesAsync(CancellationToken token)
        {
            if (!Directory.Exists(_logFolder))
                return;
@@ -74,6 +77,11 @@ namespace AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Core.Monitoring.Enrollment.Ime
                    var fileInfo = new FileInfo(filePath);
                    if (!fileInfo.Exists) continue;

+                    // Captured BEFORE GetSafePosition, which creates the entry as a side effect.
+                    // Growth measured against a previously observed size is what makes the last
+                    // line of this pass a valid "written now" calibration anchor.
+                    var hadPreviousObservation = _positionTracker.HasSeen(filePath);
+
                    var startPos = _positionTracker.GetSafePosition(filePath, fileInfo.Length);
                    if (startPos >= fileInfo.Length)
                    {
@@ -86,6 +94,13 @@ namespace AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Core.Monitoring.Enrollment.Ime
                    if (_logger.LogLevel >= AgentLogLevel.Trace)
                        _logger.Trace($"ImeLogTracker: reading {Path.GetFileName(filePath)} from pos {startPos} (size={fileInfo.Length}, delta={fileInfo.Length - startPos})");

+                    _currentSourceFileName = Path.GetFileName(filePath);
+
+                    // Newest bias-less line of this pass — the calibration anchor. Bias-carrying
+                    // lines are skipped: they already state the writer's offset, so they need no
+                    // measurement and must not overwrite one.
+                    CmTraceLogEntry calibrationAnchor = null;
+
                    using (var stream = new FileStream(filePath, FileMode.Open, FileAccess.Read, FileShare.ReadWrite))
                    {
                        stream.Seek(startPos, SeekOrigin.Begin);
@@ -147,6 +162,8 @@ namespace AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Core.Monitoring.Enrollment.Ime
                                if (CmTraceLogParser.TryParseLine(line, out entry))
                                {
                                    messageToMatch = entry.Message;
+                                    if (entry.HasTimestamp && !entry.BiasMinutes.HasValue)
+                                        calibrationAnchor = entry;
                                }
                                else
                                {
@@ -160,7 +177,7 @@ namespace AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Core.Monitoring.Enrollment.Ime
                                // Simulation mode delay
                                if (SimulationMode && entry != null)
                                {
-                                    await ApplySimulationDelay(entry.Timestamp, token);
+                                    await ApplySimulationDelay(ResolveEntryUtc(entry), token);
                                }

                                // Match against active patterns
@@ -185,6 +202,15 @@ namespace AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Core.Monitoring.Enrollment.Ime

                        _positionTracker.SetPosition(filePath, stream.Position);
                        _stateDirty = true;
+
+                        // Calibrate AFTER the pass: this pass's lines were resolved with the
+                        // offset established previously, at most one poll (100 ms) old. Buffering
+                        // the pass to calibrate first is not an option — the first pass of
+                        // AppWorkload.log can be hundreds of MB. The cost is a warm-up of one
+                        // growing pass, during which lines fall back to the reader zone and are
+                        // flagged as such.
+                        if (hadPreviousObservation && calibrationAnchor != null)
+                            CalibrateFrom(_currentSourceFileName, calibrationAnchor);
                    }
                }
                catch (FileNotFoundException) { }
@@ -214,12 +240,40 @@ namespace AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Core.Monitoring.Enrollment.Ime
            "capturedetectionresult", "esptrackstatus", "policiesdiscovered",
            "ignorecompletedapp", "updatename", "updatewin32appstate",
            "cancelstuckandsetcurrent", "updatedotelemetry",
+            // Not app-mutating, but a stale token-failure replayed from a previous
+            // enrollment's log would emit a misleading Warning for THIS session.
+            "imetokenfailure",
        };

        private void HandlePatternMatch(CompiledPattern pattern, Match match, string message, CmTraceLogEntry entry)
        {
            LastMatchedPatternId = pattern.PatternId;
-            LastMatchedLogTimestamp = entry?.Timestamp;
+            if (entry == null)
+            {
+                LastMatchedLogTimestamp = null;
+                LastMatchedSourceLocalTimestamp = null;
+                LastMatchedSourceOffsetMinutes = null;
+                LastMatchedSourceOffsetOrigin = CmTraceOffsetOrigin.None;
+                LastMatchedMeasuredWriterOffsetMinutes = null;
+            }
+            else
+            {
+                CmTraceOffsetOrigin origin;
+                int? offsetMinutes;
+                LastMatchedLogTimestamp = ResolveEntryUtc(entry, out origin, out offsetMinutes);
+                LastMatchedSourceLocalTimestamp = entry.HasTimestamp ? entry.LocalTimestamp : (DateTime?)null;
+                LastMatchedSourceOffsetMinutes = offsetMinutes;
+                LastMatchedSourceOffsetOrigin = origin;
+
+                // Observational: what the calibrator measured for this file, distinct from what
+                // was applied above.
+                TimeSpan measuredWriterOffset;
+                LastMatchedMeasuredWriterOffsetMinutes =
+                    _currentSourceFileName != null
+                    && OffsetCalibrator.TryGetOffset(_currentSourceFileName, out measuredWriterOffset)
+                        ? (int)measuredWriterOffset.TotalMinutes
+                        : (int?)null;
+            }

            // Generic pattern-match hook (M4.4.4). Invoked before action-specific callbacks so
            // subscribers (e.g. ImeLogTrackerAdapter emitting WhiteGloveSealingPatternDetected)
@@ -234,13 +288,21 @@ namespace AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Core.Monitoring.Enrollment.Ime
            // state nor the phase-change ignore list. SimulationMode (--replay-log-dir dev tool)
            // replays historic logs on purpose and bypasses the guard.
            var isStaleReplayLine = !SimulationMode && entry != null
-                && (UtcNowProvider() - NormalizeUtc(entry.Timestamp)) > HistoricReplayThreshold;
+                && (UtcNowProvider() - NormalizeUtc(ResolveEntryUtc(entry))) > HistoricReplayThreshold;
            if (isStaleReplayLine && AppMutatingActions.Contains(pattern.Action?.ToLower() ?? string.Empty))
            {
-                _logger.Debug($"ImeLogTracker: skipped app action '{pattern.Action}' for historic line ({entry.Timestamp:o})");
+                _logger.Debug($"ImeLogTracker: skipped app action '{pattern.Action}' for historic line ({ResolveEntryUtc(entry):o})");
                return;
            }

+            // A token success resolves any pending token failure (grace-window model, see
+            // HandleImeTokenFailure). Matched on our own stable pattern ID — the line also
+            // drives espPhaseDetected, whose handler must stay unaware of token semantics.
+            // Placed after the staleness gate so a success replayed from a previous
+            // enrollment's log cannot clear a genuine current outage.
+            if (!isStaleReplayLine && string.Equals(pattern.PatternId, "IME-TOKEN-SUCCESS", StringComparison.OrdinalIgnoreCase))
+                ClearPendingTokenFailure();
+
            try
            {
                var id = match.Groups["id"]?.Value;
@@ -296,6 +358,10 @@ namespace AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Core.Monitoring.Enrollment.Ime
                            OnImeAgentVersion?.Invoke(version);
                        break;

+                    case "imetokenfailure":
+                        HandleImeTokenFailure(match.Groups["errorCode"]?.Value, message);
+                        break;
+
                    case "imeimpersonation":
                        // PR3-A2: dedup. The same user triggers ~24 identical lines per session;
                        // log on first/changed user, otherwise count and emit a single rollup
@@ -509,8 +575,16 @@ namespace AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Core.Monitoring.Enrollment.Ime
        internal void ProcessLogMessageForTest(string message, DateTime? sourceTimestampUtc = null)
        {
            if (string.IsNullOrEmpty(message)) return;
+            // The test seam hands in an already-resolved UTC instant, so it takes the same route a
+            // writer-declared bias does: TimestampUtc set, no zone left to guess.
            var entry = sourceTimestampUtc.HasValue
-                ? new CmTraceLogEntry { Timestamp = sourceTimestampUtc.Value, Message = message }
+                ? new CmTraceLogEntry
+                {
+                    TimestampUtc = sourceTimestampUtc.Value,
+                    LocalTimestamp = DateTime.SpecifyKind(sourceTimestampUtc.Value, DateTimeKind.Unspecified),
+                    HasTimestamp = true,
+                    Message = message,
+                }
                : null;
            foreach (var pattern in _activePatterns)
            {
@@ -528,5 +602,105 @@ namespace AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Core.Monitoring.Enrollment.Ime
        /// Parses [DO TEL] JSON and links it to the correct app via FileId.
        /// The FileId contains the app GUID in the format: ...intunewin-bin_{appGuid}_{number}
        /// </summary>
+
+        /// <summary>
+        /// Resolve a parsed CMTrace entry to UTC.
+        ///
+        /// <para>
+        /// Order of preference: a writer-declared bias (authoritative) &gt; this process's own zone
+        /// (a fallback carrying a known defect, see
+        /// <see cref="CmTraceLogParser.ResolveUtcAssumingReaderZone"/>) &gt; the agent clock for a
+        /// line with no parseable timestamp.
+        /// </para>
+        ///
+        /// <para>
+        /// The reader-zone step is where the tracker is still wrong when IME's process holds a
+        /// different zone belief than ours. It is preserved verbatim here so that splitting the
+        /// parser changes no behaviour; the measured offset from <c>CmTraceOffsetCalibrator</c>
+        /// slots in at exactly this point in the follow-up change.
+        /// </para>
+        /// </summary>
+        private DateTime ResolveEntryUtc(CmTraceLogEntry entry)
+        {
+            CmTraceOffsetOrigin origin;
+            int? offsetMinutes;
+            return ResolveEntryUtc(entry, out origin, out offsetMinutes);
+        }
+
+        /// <summary>
+        /// Resolve a parsed entry to UTC and report HOW the offset was obtained, so the emitting
+        /// side can attach the evidence (P8). See <see cref="CmTraceOffsetOrigin"/>.
+        /// </summary>
+        private DateTime ResolveEntryUtc(CmTraceLogEntry entry, out CmTraceOffsetOrigin origin, out int? offsetMinutes)
+        {
+            origin = CmTraceOffsetOrigin.None;
+            offsetMinutes = null;
+
+            if (entry == null) return UtcNowProvider();
+
+            // Writer declared its own offset — nothing left to measure.
+            if (entry.TimestampUtc.HasValue)
+            {
+                origin = CmTraceOffsetOrigin.Bias;
+                // Bias uses the GetTimeZoneInformation convention (UTC = local + bias); report the
+                // value in the same sense as a measured offset (local = UTC + offset).
+                offsetMinutes = entry.BiasMinutes.HasValue ? -entry.BiasMinutes.Value : (int?)null;
+                return entry.TimestampUtc.Value;
+            }
+
+            if (!entry.HasTimestamp) return UtcNowProvider();
+
+            // REVERTED 2026-08-20 (session e9753578): the measured offset is NOT applied.
+            //
+            // Calibration keeps one offset per FILE, but a single log file can hold lines from
+            // two writer eras — IME restarting across a timezone change leaves older lines in the
+            // old zone and newer ones in the new zone, in the same file. The anchor is the newest
+            // line, so its offset was also applied to the older lines, for which it is wrong. In
+            // the field that shifted 5 script_started events by -9 h while their script_completed
+            // counterparts were resolved correctly, inflating every script duration to ~32,400 s.
+            //
+            // The deeper lesson: applying the reader zone uniformly is wrong for ABSOLUTE times
+            // but self-consistent for DERIVED ones — both ends of a duration are wrong by the same
+            // amount, so the duration is right. Correcting only some timestamps produced a mixed
+            // frame INSIDE one session, which is strictly worse. Until the calibrator is era-aware
+            // (see tasks/todo.md), uniform beats partially-correct.
+            //
+            // The measurement itself still runs: it costs nothing, feeds the Info log and the
+            // event provenance, and is the field data the era-aware fix will be built on.
+            var readerZoneOffset = TimeZoneInfo.Local.GetUtcOffset(entry.LocalTimestamp);
+            offsetMinutes = (int)readerZoneOffset.TotalMinutes;
+            return CmTraceLogParser.ResolveUtcAssumingReaderZone(entry.LocalTimestamp);
+        }
+
+        /// <summary>
+        /// Feed the pass's newest bias-less line to the calibrator and report a measured offset
+        /// that disagrees with this process's own zone — that disagreement is precisely the
+        /// condition that used to corrupt every IME-derived timestamp silently.
+        /// </summary>
+        private void CalibrateFrom(string sourceFileName, CmTraceLogEntry anchor)
+        {
+            TimeSpan previous;
+            var hadOffset = OffsetCalibrator.TryGetOffset(sourceFileName, out previous);
+
+            if (!OffsetCalibrator.TryCalibrate(sourceFileName, anchor.LocalTimestamp, UtcNowProvider()))
+                return;
+
+            TimeSpan measured;
+            if (!OffsetCalibrator.TryGetOffset(sourceFileName, out measured)) return;
+            if (hadOffset && measured == previous) return;
+
+            var readerZoneOffset = TimeZoneInfo.Local.GetUtcOffset(UtcNowProvider());
+            if (measured == readerZoneOffset)
+            {
+                _logger?.Debug(
+                    $"ImeLogTracker: {sourceFileName} writer offset measured {measured} (matches this process).");
+                return;
+            }
+
+            _logger?.Info(
+                $"ImeLogTracker: {sourceFileName} writer offset measured {measured}, this process believes {readerZoneOffset} " +
+                $"— timestamps from this file are corrected by {(measured - readerZoneOffset).Negate()}.");
+        }
+
    }
 }
@@ -85,6 +85,24 @@ namespace AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Core.Monitoring.Enrollment.Ime
        /// Unspecified depending on the parser path. Normalize via SpecifyKind=Utc rather than
        /// ToUniversalTime() to avoid double-conversion when Kind is already UTC.
        /// </summary>
+        /// <summary>
+        /// Measures the UTC offset the IME process believes it is in, per log file.
+        /// <para>
+        /// Only this tracker may WRITE to it: calibration requires tailing with growth detection
+        /// so the freshness rule can be honoured, and no other collector tails. Exposed so the
+        /// snapshot-reading collectors can eventually READ from a shared instance
+        /// (tasks/todo.md, P3b).
+        /// </para>
+        /// </summary>
+        internal CmTraceOffsetCalibrator OffsetCalibrator { get; } = new CmTraceOffsetCalibrator();
+
+        /// <summary>
+        /// File whose lines are currently being processed. The polling loop walks files strictly
+        /// sequentially on a single task, so a field is sufficient to give <c>ResolveEntryUtc</c>
+        /// and the handlers the calibration key without threading it through every signature.
+        /// </summary>
+        private string _currentSourceFileName;
+
        internal static DateTime NormalizeUtc(DateTime value) =>
            value.Kind == DateTimeKind.Utc ? value : DateTime.SpecifyKind(value, DateTimeKind.Utc);

@@ -119,6 +137,12 @@ namespace AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Core.Monitoring.Enrollment.Ime
            "IntuneManagementExtension-????????-??????.log",
            "AppWorkload.log",
            "AppWorkload-????????-??????.log",
+            // Enforcement decision engine (V3 ActionProcessor). IME routes every
+            // [Win32App][ActionProcessor] line here (app.config TraceSource mapping) —
+            // NO-ACTION / NOT-TARGETED classifications and the GRS "will not be
+            // enforced" skips are ONLY visible in this file (audit 2026-08-17).
+            "AppActionProcessor.log",
+            "AppActionProcessor-????????-??????.log",
            // PowerShell script tracking
            "AgentExecutor.log",
            "AgentExecutor-????????-??????.log",
@@ -185,6 +209,38 @@ namespace AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Core.Monitoring.Enrollment.Ime
        public string LastMatchedPatternId { get; internal set; }
        public DateTime? LastMatchedLogTimestamp { get; internal set; }

+        /// <summary>
+        /// Raw local time of the last matched line, exactly as the writer wrote it — no zone
+        /// attached, because the line carries none.
+        /// <para>
+        /// Recorded so an emitted event can carry the evidence for its own timestamp. Without it
+        /// a conversion error is only provable from the diagnostics archive, and of the 5,386
+        /// sessions that went through a timezone change essentially none had one — the field
+        /// analysis had to fall back to median statistics over thousands of sessions to show
+        /// what one stored value would have made obvious per session.
+        /// </para>
+        /// </summary>
+        public DateTime? LastMatchedSourceLocalTimestamp { get; internal set; }
+
+        /// <summary>Offset applied to <see cref="LastMatchedSourceLocalTimestamp"/>, in minutes.</summary>
+        public int? LastMatchedSourceOffsetMinutes { get; internal set; }
+
+        /// <summary>How that offset was arrived at — declared, measured, or neither.</summary>
+        public CmTraceOffsetOrigin LastMatchedSourceOffsetOrigin { get; internal set; }
+
+        /// <summary>
+        /// The offset the calibrator MEASURED for the source file, which is not necessarily the
+        /// one applied.
+        /// <para>
+        /// Since the 2026-08-20 revert the measurement is observational only: it is recorded so the
+        /// field tells us what an era-aware calibrator would have to work with, without acting on
+        /// it. Reported separately from <see cref="LastMatchedSourceOffsetMinutes"/> precisely so
+        /// the two can never be confused — that event said "calibrated" while carrying a wrong
+        /// value, and an honest record has to distinguish measured from applied.
+        /// </para>
+        /// </summary>
+        public int? LastMatchedMeasuredWriterOffsetMinutes { get; internal set; }
+
        // Callbacks to EnrollmentTracker
        public Action<string> OnEspPhaseChanged { get; set; }
        public Action<string> OnImeAgentVersion { get; set; }
@@ -194,6 +250,9 @@ namespace AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Core.Monitoring.Enrollment.Ime
        public Action OnAllAppsCompleted { get; set; }
        public Action OnUserSessionCompleted { get; set; }
        public Action<string> OnImeSessionChange { get; set; }
+        // Args: errorCode (may be empty when IME logged none), raw failure line excerpt.
+        // Fired once per distinct errorCode per tracker lifetime (see HandleImeTokenFailure).
+        public Action<string, string> OnImeTokenFailure { get; set; }
        // Second arg: the [DO TEL] source log line's timestamp when the DO data came from a
        // log line, null when the DO collector observed the completion live via polling. The
        // consumer must stamp poll-driven telemetry with the clock — inheriting an unrelated
@@ -598,6 +657,11 @@ namespace AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Core.Monitoring.Enrollment.Ime
                        // line never arrived within the grace period. Runs on this same loop
                        // thread (no locking) so it observes the buffer right after parsing.
                        FlushStalePlatformScriptResults(DateTime.UtcNow);
+
+                        // Token-failure grace window: fires only when the failure stayed
+                        // unresolved (no IME-TOKEN-SUCCESS) for the whole window. Runs after
+                        // the drain so a success later in the same batch clears first.
+                        CheckPendingTokenFailure(DateTime.UtcNow);
                    }
                    catch (OperationCanceledException) { break; }
                    catch (Exception ex)
@@ -19,6 +19,18 @@ namespace AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Core.Monitoring.Enrollment.Ime
        /// has been rotated - resets to 0 to read from beginning.
        /// Returns 0 if no position has been recorded yet.
        /// </summary>
+        /// <summary>
+        /// Whether this file was already observed in an earlier pass.
+        /// <para>
+        /// The offset calibration depends on this: growth measured against a size we saw before
+        /// means the new bytes were written within one poll interval, so the last line of that
+        /// pass is a valid "written now" anchor. On the FIRST sight of a file we read it from
+        /// position 0 and its last line may be arbitrarily old — anchoring on that would measure
+        /// the line's age instead of the writer's timezone offset.
+        /// </para>
+        /// </summary>
+        public bool HasSeen(string filePath) => _positions.ContainsKey(filePath);
+
        public long GetSafePosition(string filePath, long currentFileSize)
        {
            FilePositionState state;
@@ -1,5 +1,6 @@
 using System;
 using System.Collections.Generic;
+using System.Threading;
 using AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Core.Logging;
 using AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Core.Orchestration;
 using AutopilotMonitor.Shared;
@@ -37,6 +38,7 @@ namespace AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Core.Monitoring.Enrollment.SystemSignals
        private readonly int _modernDeploymentBackfillLookbackMinutes;
        private readonly string _stateDirectory;
        private readonly int[] _modernDeploymentHarmlessEventIds;
+        private readonly bool _isDevicePreparation;
        private readonly Func<(bool? skipUser, bool? skipDevice)> _skipConfigProbe;
        private readonly Func<bool> _accountSetupActivityProbe;
        private readonly Func<bool> _userEspAppsSettledProbe;
@@ -45,7 +47,24 @@ namespace AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Core.Monitoring.Enrollment.SystemSignals

        // Session caa6cf50 gate-starvation fix (2026-06-11) — fire-once guard for the
        // user-ESP-apps-settled AccountSetup synthesis (see MaybeSynthesizeAccountSetupComplete).
-        private bool _userAppsSettledSynthesisFired;
+        // Interlocked rather than a plain bool: since the sits-d Cloud-PC fix the synthesis is
+        // ALSO re-evaluated from the IME app-state-change thread, so two threads can reach the
+        // guard concurrently (Shell-Core watcher thread + IME log thread).
+        private int _userAppsSettledSynthesisFired;
+
+        // sits-d Cloud-PC fix (2026-08-19) — set once a CONFIRMED post-AccountSetup Shell-Core
+        // exit has been observed (live OR backfill). The synthesis needs two facts: the ESP exit
+        // is an EDGE that happens once, the settled user-ESP apps are a LEVEL that may only be
+        // reached minutes later. Recording the edge lets ReevaluateUserAppsSettledSynthesis
+        // re-check the level afterwards instead of losing the completion for the rest of the
+        // session.
+        //
+        // Codex review P1 (2026-08-19): "confirmed" is load-bearing. Shell-Core raises 62407 at
+        // EVERY ESP phase transition, DeviceSetup→AccountSetup included. Remembering that
+        // intermediate exit would let the deferred re-check open the strong AccountSetup gate the
+        // moment the last user app settles — while the AccountSetup page is still up and its other
+        // subcategories are still running. See IsConfirmedPostAccountSetupExit.
+        private volatile bool _espExitObserved;

        // Liveness plan PR3 — one-shot-per-appId dedupe for app_install_starved emissions.
        // Written from the Shell-Core watcher thread (esp_exited path), read at termination by
@@ -194,7 +213,8 @@ namespace AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Core.Monitoring.Enrollment.SystemSignals

        /// <summary>
        /// True when DeviceSetup contains a SaveWhiteGloveSuccessResult subcategory with state "succeeded".
-        /// This is a definitive WhiteGlove (Pre-Provisioning) confirmation signal from the ESP registry.
+        /// NOT a WhiteGlove indicator on Win11 25H2+ — Windows writes it in every enrollment
+        /// (see <see cref="ProvisioningStatusTracker.HasSaveWhiteGloveSuccessResult"/>). Observability only.
        /// </summary>
        public bool HasSaveWhiteGloveSuccessResult => _provisioningTracker?.HasSaveWhiteGloveSuccessResult ?? false;

@@ -210,6 +230,7 @@ namespace AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Core.Monitoring.Enrollment.SystemSignals
            int modernDeploymentBackfillLookbackMinutes = 30,
            string stateDirectory = null,
            int[] modernDeploymentHarmlessEventIds = null,
+            bool isDevicePreparation = false,
            Func<(bool? skipUser, bool? skipDevice)> skipConfigProbe = null,
            Func<bool> accountSetupActivityProbe = null,
            Func<bool> userEspAppsSettledProbe = null,
@@ -227,6 +248,7 @@ namespace AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Core.Monitoring.Enrollment.SystemSignals
            _modernDeploymentBackfillLookbackMinutes = modernDeploymentBackfillLookbackMinutes;
            _stateDirectory = stateDirectory != null ? Environment.ExpandEnvironmentVariables(stateDirectory) : null;
            _modernDeploymentHarmlessEventIds = modernDeploymentHarmlessEventIds;
+            _isDevicePreparation = isDevicePreparation;
            // Test seam: allow injection of a fake skip-config reader; defaults to the real
            // registry probe so production never has to think about this parameter.
            _skipConfigProbe = skipConfigProbe ?? (() => EspSkipConfigurationProbe.Read(_logger));
@@ -310,11 +332,40 @@ namespace AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Core.Monitoring.Enrollment.SystemSignals
        /// </summary>
        public void ResetForEspResumption() => _helloTracker?.ResetForEspResumption();

+
        /// <summary>
-        /// Backfills recent ESP exit and failure events from Shell-Core log on startup.
-        /// Secondary recovery mechanism when state persistence is unavailable.
+        /// Replays the recent Shell-Core Hello-wizard start with an explicit lookback window.
+        /// Called by <c>EspAndHelloHost</c> right after <see cref="Start"/> — see the host for why
+        /// the window is sized to the previous run's downtime, and
+        /// <see cref="ShellCoreTracker.ReplayBackfillRecords"/> for why the ESP exit is not part
+        /// of the replay.
        /// </summary>
-        public void BackfillRecentEspExitEvents() => _shellCoreTracker?.BackfillRecentEspExitEvents();
+        public void BackfillRecentHelloWizardStart(int lookbackMinutes)
+            => _shellCoreTracker?.BackfillRecentHelloWizardStart(lookbackMinutes);
+
+        /// <summary>
+        /// sits-d Cloud-PC fix (2026-08-19) — re-check the user-apps-settled AccountSetup
+        /// synthesis after the ESP exit has already been observed. Wired to the IME tracker's
+        /// app-state-change callback in <c>DefaultComponentFactory</c>.
+        /// <para>
+        /// Before this, the synthesis ran ONLY on the <c>EspExited</c> edge. When the ESP page
+        /// exits while user-ESP apps are still in flight (the normal case on a tenant with a
+        /// large required-app set), the single attempt misses and nothing re-checks — even once
+        /// every tracked app has reached a terminal state minutes later. Sessions 8110e262 and
+        /// a89aac2d reached 138/138 apps with 0 failed and still never completed.
+        /// </para>
+        /// <para>
+        /// Adds NO new completion path: the gate conditions inside the synthesis are unchanged
+        /// (real ESP exit + every required user-ESP app terminal + zero failures). This only
+        /// grants the existing, deliberately conservative check a second look.
+        /// </para>
+        /// </summary>
+        public void ReevaluateUserAppsSettledSynthesis()
+        {
+            if (!_espExitObserved) return;
+            if (Volatile.Read(ref _userAppsSettledSynthesisFired) != 0) return;
+            MaybeSynthesizeAccountSetupCompleteFromSettledUserApps(emitStarvedOnMiss: false);
+        }

        // =====================================================================
        // Lifecycle
@@ -347,16 +398,28 @@ namespace AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Core.Monitoring.Enrollment.SystemSignals
            _shellCoreTracker.HelloWizardStarted += OnHelloWizardStarted;
            _shellCoreTracker.Start();

-            _provisioningTracker = new ProvisioningStatusTracker(
-                _sessionId,
-                _tenantId,
-                _post,
-                _logger,
-                packageStatesProbe: _packageStatesProbe);
-            _provisioningTracker.EspFailureDetected += OnProvisioningEspFailureDetected;
-            _provisioningTracker.DeviceSetupProvisioningComplete += OnDeviceSetupProvisioningComplete;
-            _provisioningTracker.AccountSetupProvisioningComplete += OnAccountSetupProvisioningComplete;
-            _provisioningTracker.Start();
+            // WDP gate (afee7ae0, 2026-08-18): Device Preparation writes its BootstrapperAgent
+            // progress under the very AutopilotSettings key this tracker subtree-watches, so on
+            // WDP the watcher woke up on every provisioning write only to read three ESP
+            // category values that never exist there. The ESP categories are the tracker's
+            // ONLY subject — skip it entirely. All consumers already null-guard the tracker.
+            if (!_isDevicePreparation)
+            {
+                _provisioningTracker = new ProvisioningStatusTracker(
+                    _sessionId,
+                    _tenantId,
+                    _post,
+                    _logger,
+                    packageStatesProbe: _packageStatesProbe);
+                _provisioningTracker.EspFailureDetected += OnProvisioningEspFailureDetected;
+                _provisioningTracker.DeviceSetupProvisioningComplete += OnDeviceSetupProvisioningComplete;
+                _provisioningTracker.AccountSetupProvisioningComplete += OnAccountSetupProvisioningComplete;
+                _provisioningTracker.Start();
+            }
+            else
+            {
+                _logger.Info("EspAndHelloTracker: Device Preparation session — ProvisioningStatusTracker (ESP categories) not started");
+            }

            if (_modernDeploymentWatcherEnabled)
            {
@@ -369,7 +432,8 @@ namespace AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Core.Monitoring.Enrollment.SystemSignals
                    _modernDeploymentBackfillEnabled,
                    _modernDeploymentBackfillLookbackMinutes,
                    _stateDirectory,
-                    _modernDeploymentHarmlessEventIds);
+                    _modernDeploymentHarmlessEventIds,
+                    _isDevicePreparation);
                _modernDeploymentTracker.Start();
            }
        }
@@ -519,6 +583,40 @@ namespace AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Core.Monitoring.Enrollment.SystemSignals
            return skipUser == false;
        }

+        /// <summary>
+        /// Codex review P1 (2026-08-19) — may THIS <c>esp_exiting</c> be remembered as the edge the
+        /// deferred user-apps-settled re-check builds on?
+        /// <para>
+        /// Deliberately STRICTER than <c>!IsIntermediateDeviceEspExit()</c>: that helper forwards
+        /// on an unknown SkipUser (forwarding a signal early is cheap), whereas remembering the
+        /// wrong edge here can open a completion gate minutes later with no second chance to take
+        /// it back. So this one demands positive evidence and treats "unknown" as "not confirmed":
+        /// </para>
+        /// <list type="bullet">
+        ///   <item>the provisioning tracker has seen AccountSetup activity — the page that just
+        ///         tore down is demonstrably the AccountSetup one; or</item>
+        ///   <item>SkipUser is explicitly <c>true</c> — the profile has no user ESP at all, so the
+        ///         Device-ESP exit IS the final one and no second exit is coming.</item>
+        /// </list>
+        /// <para>
+        /// Erring strict costs at worst today's behaviour (the session stalls as it did before the
+        /// fix); erring loose costs a premature Succeeded, which is unrecoverable.
+        /// </para>
+        /// </summary>
+        private bool IsConfirmedPostAccountSetupExit()
+        {
+            bool accountSetupSeen;
+            try { accountSetupSeen = _accountSetupActivityProbe(); }
+            catch (Exception ex)
+            {
+                _logger.Debug($"EspAndHelloTracker: account-setup-activity probe threw: {ex.Message}");
+                accountSetupSeen = false;
+            }
+            if (accountSetupSeen) return true;
+
+            return GetSkipUserEspCached() == true;
+        }
+
        private bool? GetSkipUserEspCached()
        {
            lock (_skipConfigLock)
@@ -658,6 +756,17 @@ namespace AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Core.Monitoring.Enrollment.SystemSignals
                try { EspExited?.Invoke(this, args); }
                catch (Exception ex) { _logger.Error("Error forwarding EspExited", ex); }

+                // Every exit reaching this handler is one the agent observed LIVE: the Shell-Core
+                // replay never re-raises 62407 (see ShellCoreTracker.ReplayBackfillRecords — a
+                // replayed exit cannot be placed in time and is therefore kept out of the decision
+                // stream entirely). That is what makes the AccountSetup read below a valid
+                // ordering fact: the agent was continuously observing up to this instant.
+                //
+                // Record the edge BEFORE the synthesis attempt so a later app-state change can
+                // re-run it even when the apps are not settled at this instant.
+                if (IsConfirmedPostAccountSetupExit())
+                    _espExitObserved = true;
+
                // Session caa6cf50 gate-starvation fix: a Shell-Core normal exit while IME's
                // user-ESP app tracking is fully settled is alternative evidence that
                // AccountSetup completed. Raised AFTER the EspExited forward so the reducer
@@ -687,9 +796,9 @@ namespace AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Core.Monitoring.Enrollment.SystemSignals
        /// conservative stall behaviour.
        /// </para>
        /// </summary>
-        private void MaybeSynthesizeAccountSetupCompleteFromSettledUserApps()
+        private void MaybeSynthesizeAccountSetupCompleteFromSettledUserApps(bool emitStarvedOnMiss = true)
        {
-            if (_userAppsSettledSynthesisFired) return;
+            if (Volatile.Read(ref _userAppsSettledSynthesisFired) != 0) return;

            bool settled;
            try { settled = _userEspAppsSettledProbe(); }
@@ -705,11 +814,16 @@ namespace AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Core.Monitoring.Enrollment.SystemSignals
                // operator with an anonymous "session hangs in AccountSetup". One-shot per
                // appId; apps that are alive (Downloading/Installing) or failed are excluded
                // by the probe itself.
-                EmitStarvedUserEspApps(trigger: "esp_exited_user_apps_not_settled");
+                // Only on the ESP-exit edge: the re-evaluation path passes false so a repeated
+                // miss cannot re-walk the probe on every single app-state change (the per-appId
+                // dedupe would swallow the events anyway — this keeps the work off the hot path).
+                if (emitStarvedOnMiss)
+                    EmitStarvedUserEspApps(trigger: "esp_exited_user_apps_not_settled");
                return;
            }

-            _userAppsSettledSynthesisFired = true;
+            // Claim the single synthesis slot; a concurrent caller that loses the race returns.
+            if (Interlocked.CompareExchange(ref _userAppsSettledSynthesisFired, 1, 0) != 0) return;
            _logger.Warning(
                "EspAndHelloTracker: ESP exited normally with all tracked user-ESP apps terminal (0 failed) " +
                "but AccountSetupCategory.Status never confirmed categorySucceeded — treating AccountSetup as complete " +
@@ -803,6 +917,6 @@ namespace AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Core.Monitoring.Enrollment.SystemSignals

        // Test seam for the user-apps-settled synthesis — drives OnEspExited with the live
        // handler signature, mirroring TriggerEspExitedForTest's contract.
-        internal bool UserAppsSettledSynthesisFiredForTest => _userAppsSettledSynthesisFired;
+        internal bool UserAppsSettledSynthesisFiredForTest => Volatile.Read(ref _userAppsSettledSynthesisFired) != 0;
    }
 }
@@ -0,0 +1,235 @@
+using System;
+using System.Collections.Generic;
+using AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Core.Logging;
+using Microsoft.Win32;
+
+namespace AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Core.Monitoring.Enrollment.SystemSignals
+{
+    /// <summary>
+    /// Session 2026-08-17 — resolves where the running IME build was downloaded from.
+    /// The IME is installed through the EnterpriseDesktopAppManagement CSP, which documents
+    /// every MSI it enforces under
+    /// <c>HKLM\SOFTWARE\Microsoft\EnterpriseDesktopAppManagement\&lt;SID&gt;\MSI\{ProductCode}</c>
+    /// (values: <c>CurrentDownloadUrl</c>, <c>ProductVersion</c>, <c>ProductCode</c>, …).
+    /// Given the IME version parsed from the IME log, this probe finds the matching MSI entry
+    /// and returns its <c>CurrentDownloadUrl</c> so the <c>ime_agent_version</c> event can say
+    /// which CDN/AFD endpoint delivered exactly that build (e.g.
+    /// <c>imeswdb-afd-secondary.manage.microsoft.com</c>).
+    /// <para>
+    /// Matching: first by normalized <c>ProductVersion</c> equality (trailing <c>.0</c>
+    /// components ignored), then — because the version line in the log and the enforced MSI can
+    /// drift apart around an IME self-update — by download-URL filename
+    /// <c>IntuneWindowsAgent.msi</c>. The match kind is surfaced so consumers know whether the
+    /// URL is version-authoritative.
+    /// </para>
+    /// <para>
+    /// Fail-soft like <see cref="EspTrackingInfoProbe"/>: any failure is Debug-logged and yields
+    /// <see cref="ImeMsiInstallSource.Empty"/>; a missing CSP key (no MDM-enforced MSIs yet) is
+    /// not an error.
+    /// </para>
+    /// </summary>
+    internal static class ImeMsiInstallSourceProbe
+    {
+        internal const string CspRootKeyPath = @"SOFTWARE\Microsoft\EnterpriseDesktopAppManagement";
+
+        private const string ImeMsiFileName = "IntuneWindowsAgent.msi";
+
+        /// <summary>
+        /// Test seam — when non-null, <see cref="Read"/> delegates to this func instead of
+        /// touching the live registry. Use <see cref="ScopedOverride"/> to guarantee cleanup.
+        /// </summary>
+        internal static Func<string, AgentLogger, ImeMsiInstallSource> TestOverride;
+
+        /// <summary>
+        /// Finds the CSP MSI entry for <paramref name="imeVersion"/> (the version string parsed
+        /// from the IME log). Returns <see cref="ImeMsiInstallSource.Empty"/> when the CSP key is
+        /// missing, unreadable, or holds no plausible entry.
+        /// </summary>
+        /// <param name="imeVersion">IME version from the log, e.g. <c>1.104.102.0</c>.</param>
+        /// <param name="logger">Optional logger — Debug-level trace only; no warn/error.</param>
+        public static ImeMsiInstallSource Read(string imeVersion, AgentLogger logger = null)
+        {
+            var probe = TestOverride;
+            if (probe != null) return probe(imeVersion, logger);
+
+            try
+            {
+                var candidates = new List<MsiEntry>();
+                using (var rootKey = Registry.LocalMachine.OpenSubKey(CspRootKeyPath))
+                {
+                    if (rootKey == null)
+                    {
+                        logger?.Debug("ImeMsiInstallSourceProbe: EnterpriseDesktopAppManagement registry key not found");
+                        return ImeMsiInstallSource.Empty;
+                    }
+
+                    // Layout: <SID>\MSI\{ProductCode}. The IME sits under the device-scope
+                    // zeros-SID, but enumerate all SIDs — layout is the same for user scope.
+                    foreach (var sid in rootKey.GetSubKeyNames())
+                    {
+                        using (var msiKey = rootKey.OpenSubKey(sid + @"\MSI"))
+                        {
+                            if (msiKey == null) continue;
+                            foreach (var productCode in msiKey.GetSubKeyNames())
+                            {
+                                using (var productKey = msiKey.OpenSubKey(productCode))
+                                {
+                                    if (productKey == null) continue;
+                                    candidates.Add(new MsiEntry(
+                                        productCode: productCode,
+                                        productVersion: productKey.GetValue("ProductVersion") as string,
+                                        downloadUrl: productKey.GetValue("CurrentDownloadUrl") as string));
+                                }
+                            }
+                        }
+                    }
+                }
+
+                return SelectBestMatch(candidates, imeVersion, logger);
+            }
+            catch (Exception ex)
+            {
+                logger?.Debug($"ImeMsiInstallSourceProbe: read threw: {ex.Message}");
+                return ImeMsiInstallSource.Empty;
+            }
+        }
+
+        /// <summary>
+        /// Pure selection logic (internal for unit tests): exact/normalized ProductVersion match
+        /// wins; otherwise the first entry whose download URL points at
+        /// <c>IntuneWindowsAgent.msi</c>.
+        /// </summary>
+        internal static ImeMsiInstallSource SelectBestMatch(
+            IReadOnlyList<MsiEntry> candidates, string imeVersion, AgentLogger logger = null)
+        {
+            if (candidates == null || candidates.Count == 0) return ImeMsiInstallSource.Empty;
+
+            foreach (var entry in candidates)
+            {
+                if (VersionsEqual(entry.ProductVersion, imeVersion))
+                {
+                    logger?.Debug($"ImeMsiInstallSourceProbe: matched by ProductVersion {entry.ProductVersion} ({entry.ProductCode})");
+                    return new ImeMsiInstallSource(entry, matchedByVersion: true);
+                }
+            }
+
+            foreach (var entry in candidates)
+            {
+                if (IsImeMsiUrl(entry.DownloadUrl))
+                {
+                    logger?.Debug($"ImeMsiInstallSourceProbe: matched by URL filename, registry version {entry.ProductVersion ?? "?"} vs log {imeVersion ?? "?"} ({entry.ProductCode})");
+                    return new ImeMsiInstallSource(entry, matchedByVersion: false);
+                }
+            }
+
+            logger?.Debug($"ImeMsiInstallSourceProbe: no CSP MSI entry matches IME version {imeVersion ?? "?"} ({candidates.Count} candidates)");
+            return ImeMsiInstallSource.Empty;
+        }
+
+        /// <summary>
+        /// Component-wise numeric compare with trailing-zero tolerance, so
+        /// <c>1.104.102</c> == <c>1.104.102.0</c>. Non-numeric components fall back to an
+        /// ordinal-ignore-case string compare of the whole version.
+        /// </summary>
+        internal static bool VersionsEqual(string a, string b)
+        {
+            if (string.IsNullOrEmpty(a) || string.IsNullOrEmpty(b)) return false;
+            if (string.Equals(a.Trim(), b.Trim(), StringComparison.OrdinalIgnoreCase)) return true;
+
+            var pa = a.Trim().Split('.');
+            var pb = b.Trim().Split('.');
+            var len = Math.Max(pa.Length, pb.Length);
+            for (var i = 0; i < len; i++)
+            {
+                var sa = i < pa.Length ? pa[i] : "0";
+                var sb = i < pb.Length ? pb[i] : "0";
+                if (!int.TryParse(sa, out var na) || !int.TryParse(sb, out var nb)) return false;
+                if (na != nb) return false;
+            }
+            return true;
+        }
+
+        /// <summary>URL filename equals <c>IntuneWindowsAgent.msi</c> (query string ignored).</summary>
+        internal static bool IsImeMsiUrl(string url)
+        {
+            if (string.IsNullOrEmpty(url)) return false;
+            var path = url;
+            var query = path.IndexOf('?');
+            if (query >= 0) path = path.Substring(0, query);
+            var slash = path.LastIndexOf('/');
+            var fileName = slash >= 0 ? path.Substring(slash + 1) : path;
+            return string.Equals(fileName, ImeMsiFileName, StringComparison.OrdinalIgnoreCase);
+        }
+
+        /// <summary>Raw candidate row from one <c>MSI\{ProductCode}</c> subkey.</summary>
+        internal readonly struct MsiEntry
+        {
+            public MsiEntry(string productCode, string productVersion, string downloadUrl)
+            {
+                ProductCode = productCode;
+                ProductVersion = productVersion;
+                DownloadUrl = downloadUrl;
+            }
+
+            public string ProductCode { get; }
+            public string ProductVersion { get; }
+            public string DownloadUrl { get; }
+        }
+
+        /// <summary>
+        /// Disposable scope that sets <see cref="TestOverride"/> for the lifetime of the scope
+        /// and restores the previous value on Dispose. Nestable. Internal test-only helper.
+        /// </summary>
+        internal sealed class ScopedOverride : IDisposable
+        {
+            private readonly Func<string, AgentLogger, ImeMsiInstallSource> _previous;
+            private int _disposed;
+
+            public ScopedOverride(Func<string, AgentLogger, ImeMsiInstallSource> probe)
+            {
+                _previous = TestOverride;
+                TestOverride = probe;
+            }
+
+            public void Dispose()
+            {
+                if (System.Threading.Interlocked.Exchange(ref _disposed, 1) == 1) return;
+                TestOverride = _previous;
+            }
+        }
+    }
+
+    /// <summary>
+    /// Resolved install source of the running IME build. <see cref="HasData"/> is <c>false</c>
+    /// when no CSP MSI entry matched. <see cref="MatchedByVersion"/> distinguishes a
+    /// ProductVersion match (URL is authoritative for the reported build) from the
+    /// filename fallback (URL is the currently enforced IME MSI, version may have drifted).
+    /// </summary>
+    internal readonly struct ImeMsiInstallSource
+    {
+        public static readonly ImeMsiInstallSource Empty = default;
+
+        internal ImeMsiInstallSource(ImeMsiInstallSourceProbe.MsiEntry entry, bool matchedByVersion)
+        {
+            HasData = true;
+            ProductCode = entry.ProductCode;
+            ProductVersion = entry.ProductVersion;
+            DownloadUrl = entry.DownloadUrl;
+            MatchedByVersion = matchedByVersion;
+        }
+
+        public bool HasData { get; }
+
+        /// <summary>Braced MSI ProductCode subkey name, e.g. <c>{6a7dfc50-0395-4e1e-bf84-ed1404e72051}</c>.</summary>
+        public string ProductCode { get; }
+
+        /// <summary><c>ProductVersion</c> registry value (may be null on partial writes).</summary>
+        public string ProductVersion { get; }
+
+        /// <summary><c>CurrentDownloadUrl</c> registry value (may be null on partial writes).</summary>
+        public string DownloadUrl { get; }
+
+        /// <summary><c>true</c> = matched via ProductVersion; <c>false</c> = URL-filename fallback.</summary>
+        public bool MatchedByVersion { get; }
+    }
+}
@@ -0,0 +1,643 @@
+#nullable enable
+using System;
+using System.Collections.Generic;
+using System.Globalization;
+using System.Linq;
+using System.Text.Json;
+using AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Core.Logging;
+using AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Core.Monitoring.Enrollment.Ime;
+using AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Core.Orchestration;
+using AutopilotMonitor.DecisionCore.Engine;
+using AutopilotMonitor.Shared.Models;
+using Microsoft.Win32;
+using SharedEventTypes = AutopilotMonitor.Shared.Constants.EventTypes;
+
+namespace AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Core.Monitoring.Enrollment.SystemSignals
+{
+    /// <summary>
+    /// Registry "second pillar" for IME app state (audit 2026-08-17, architecture decision:
+    /// registry = stable truth, IME logs = narrative). IME persists its authoritative per-app
+    /// state under <c>HKLM\SOFTWARE\Microsoft\IntuneManagementExtension</c>:
+    /// <list type="bullet">
+    /// <item><c>Win32Apps\&lt;userGuid&gt;\&lt;appGuid&gt;_&lt;rev&gt;</c> — EnforcementStateMessage JSON
+    /// (EnforcementState + ErrorCode), ExitCode, Intent. Device context = Guid.Empty user.</item>
+    /// <item><c>EspTrackingWin32Apps\&lt;userGuid&gt;\&lt;appGuid&gt;_&lt;rev&gt;</c> — which apps IME
+    /// registered for ESP tracking and in which phase.</item>
+    /// <item><c>SideCarPolicies\StatusServiceReports\&lt;userGuid&gt;\&lt;appId&gt;</c> — the exact
+    /// AppInstallStatusReport the ESP page renders (Status 1000=Installed .. 3000=Failed).</item>
+    /// </list>
+    /// The observer is snapshot-and-diff driven (RegistryWatcher gives key-scope edges only,
+    /// coalesced — a per-write parse is impossible by design): every tick re-reads the three
+    /// surfaces and emits <c>registry_app_state</c> on real field changes. Pre-existing state at
+    /// agent start is the silent baseline — Win32Apps keys survive re-enrollments, so replaying
+    /// them as fresh events would be the registry twin of the historic-IME-replay bug.
+    ///
+    /// Reconciliation (= built-in log-pattern drift alarm): once a registry entry that changed
+    /// during THIS session has been terminal for <see cref="ReconcileSettleDelay"/>, its outcome
+    /// is compared against the log-derived <see cref="AppPackageState"/>. A divergence means the
+    /// IME log patterns missed or mis-classified the app — emitted once per app as
+    /// <c>app_state_reconciliation</c> (Warning). Pure observability: nothing here feeds the
+    /// DecisionEngine.
+    /// </summary>
+    internal sealed class ImeRegistryAppStateObserver
+    {
+        public const string SourceLabel = "RegistryAppState";
+
+        internal const string ImeRootKeyPath = @"SOFTWARE\Microsoft\IntuneManagementExtension";
+
+        // Safety cap: a pathological churn (or a wrong diff) must not flood the timeline.
+        // 200 covers ~25 apps x 8 state transitions; the cap itself is announced once.
+        internal const int MaxStateEventsPerSession = 200;
+
+        // The log tracker legitimately lags the registry (log write + 100 ms poll + phase
+        // gating), so divergence is only evaluated after the registry state has been stable
+        // terminal for this long.
+        internal static readonly TimeSpan ReconcileSettleDelay = TimeSpan.FromSeconds(90);
+
+        private readonly InformationalEventPost _post;
+        private readonly AgentLogger? _logger;
+        private readonly IClock _clock;
+        private readonly Func<IReadOnlyList<AppPackageState>>? _trackerStateProbe;
+        private readonly object _sync = new object();
+
+        private ImeRegistrySnapshot? _last;
+        private readonly Dictionary<string, DateTime> _terminalSinceUtc =
+            new Dictionary<string, DateTime>(StringComparer.OrdinalIgnoreCase);
+        private readonly HashSet<string> _changedDuringSession =
+            new HashSet<string>(StringComparer.OrdinalIgnoreCase);
+        private readonly HashSet<string> _reconciliationEmitted =
+            new HashSet<string>(StringComparer.OrdinalIgnoreCase);
+        private int _stateEventsEmitted;
+        private bool _capNoticeEmitted;
+
+        // Test seam: replaces the live registry walk (same convention as EspTrackingInfoProbe).
+        internal static Func<ImeRegistrySnapshot>? SnapshotOverride;
+
+        internal sealed class ScopedSnapshotOverride : IDisposable
+        {
+            private readonly Func<ImeRegistrySnapshot>? _previous;
+            private int _disposed;
+
+            public ScopedSnapshotOverride(Func<ImeRegistrySnapshot> replacement)
+            {
+                _previous = SnapshotOverride;
+                SnapshotOverride = replacement;
+            }
+
+            public void Dispose()
+            {
+                if (System.Threading.Interlocked.Exchange(ref _disposed, 1) != 0) return;
+                SnapshotOverride = _previous;
+            }
+        }
+
+        public ImeRegistryAppStateObserver(
+            InformationalEventPost post,
+            AgentLogger? logger,
+            IClock clock,
+            Func<IReadOnlyList<AppPackageState>>? trackerStateProbe)
+        {
+            _post = post ?? throw new ArgumentNullException(nameof(post));
+            _clock = clock ?? throw new ArgumentNullException(nameof(clock));
+            _logger = logger;
+            _trackerStateProbe = trackerStateProbe;
+        }
+
+        /// <summary>
+        /// One observation pass: snapshot → diff → emit → reconcile. Called from the debounced
+        /// registry-change edge AND a periodic fallback tick (the settle-delay evaluation must
+        /// happen even when the registry goes quiet). Fail-soft: never throws.
+        /// </summary>
+        public void Tick(string reason)
+        {
+            try
+            {
+                lock (_sync)
+                {
+                    var snapshot = SnapshotOverride?.Invoke() ?? ReadSnapshot();
+                    var nowUtc = _clock.UtcNow;
+
+                    if (_last == null)
+                    {
+                        // Silent baseline for the DIFF stream — see class doc. But the baseline
+                        // itself is valuable evidence: on WDP the DPP-policy apps install in
+                        // Batch 1 BEFORE the agent (bootstrap = Batch 2), so their terminal
+                        // states exist ONLY here. One capped summary event closes that
+                        // pre-agent gap without any log backfill (Oliver, 2026-08-18).
+                        _last = snapshot;
+                        _logger?.Info($"RegistryAppState: baseline captured ({snapshot.Entries.Count} app entries, trigger={reason})");
+                        if (snapshot.Entries.Count > 0)
+                            EmitBaselineSummary(snapshot, nowUtc);
+                        return;
+                    }
+
+                    var changes = DiffSnapshots(_last, snapshot);
+                    foreach (var change in changes)
+                    {
+                        _changedDuringSession.Add(change.Entry.Key);
+                        EmitStateEvent(change, nowUtc);
+                    }
+
+                    TrackTerminalTransitions(snapshot, nowUtc);
+                    EvaluateReconciliations(snapshot, nowUtc);
+
+                    _last = snapshot;
+                }
+            }
+            catch (Exception ex)
+            {
+                _logger?.Debug($"RegistryAppState: tick failed (fail-soft): {ex.Message}");
+            }
+        }
+
+        // ── snapshot ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+
+        internal static ImeRegistrySnapshot ReadSnapshot()
+        {
+            var snapshot = new ImeRegistrySnapshot();
+            using var baseKey = RegistryKey.OpenBaseKey(RegistryHive.LocalMachine, RegistryView.Registry64);
+            using var root = baseKey.OpenSubKey(ImeRootKeyPath);
+            if (root == null) return snapshot;
+
+            ReadWin32Apps(root, snapshot);
+            ReadEspTracking(root, snapshot);
+            ReadStatusServiceReports(root, snapshot);
+            return snapshot;
+        }
+
+        private static void ReadWin32Apps(RegistryKey root, ImeRegistrySnapshot snapshot)
+        {
+            using var win32Apps = root.OpenSubKey("Win32Apps");
+            if (win32Apps == null) return;
+
+            foreach (var userName in win32Apps.GetSubKeyNames())
+            {
+                if (!LooksLikeGuid(userName)) continue; // skips OperationalState / Reporting / ProvisioningProgress
+                using var userKey = win32Apps.OpenSubKey(userName);
+                if (userKey == null) continue;
+
+                foreach (var appKeyName in userKey.GetSubKeyNames())
+                {
+                    var appId = ExtractAppId(appKeyName);
+                    if (appId == null) continue; // skips GRS + non-app keys
+
+                    using var appKey = userKey.OpenSubKey(appKeyName);
+                    if (appKey == null) continue;
+
+                    var entry = snapshot.GetOrAdd(userName, appId);
+                    entry.ExitCode = TryReadInt(appKey.GetValue("ExitCode"));
+                    entry.Intent = TryReadInt(appKey.GetValue("Intent"));
+                    entry.LastUpdatedUtc = appKey.GetValue("LastUpdatedTimeUtc") as string;
+
+                    using var esm = appKey.OpenSubKey("EnforcementStateMessage");
+                    var json = esm?.GetValue("EnforcementStateMessage") as string;
+                    if (!string.IsNullOrEmpty(json))
+                    {
+                        var (state, error) = ParseEnforcementStateMessage(json!);
+                        entry.EnforcementState = state;
+                        entry.ErrorCode = error;
+                    }
+                }
+            }
+        }
+
+        private static void ReadEspTracking(RegistryKey root, ImeRegistrySnapshot snapshot)
+        {
+            using var esp = root.OpenSubKey("EspTrackingWin32Apps");
+            if (esp == null) return;
+
+            foreach (var userName in esp.GetSubKeyNames())
+            {
+                if (!LooksLikeGuid(userName)) continue;
+                using var userKey = esp.OpenSubKey(userName);
+                if (userKey == null) continue;
+
+                foreach (var appKeyName in userKey.GetSubKeyNames())
+                {
+                    var appId = ExtractAppId(appKeyName);
+                    if (appId == null) continue;
+
+                    using var appKey = userKey.OpenSubKey(appKeyName);
+                    var entry = snapshot.GetOrAdd(userName, appId);
+                    entry.EspTracked = true;
+                    entry.EspPhase = appKey?.GetValue("EspTrackingWin32AppPhase") as string;
+                }
+            }
+        }
+
+        private static void ReadStatusServiceReports(RegistryKey root, ImeRegistrySnapshot snapshot)
+        {
+            using var reports = root.OpenSubKey(@"SideCarPolicies\StatusServiceReports");
+            if (reports == null) return;
+
+            foreach (var userName in reports.GetSubKeyNames())
+            {
+                if (!LooksLikeGuid(userName)) continue;
+                using var userKey = reports.OpenSubKey(userName);
+                if (userKey == null) continue;
+
+                foreach (var appKeyName in userKey.GetSubKeyNames())
+                {
+                    var appId = ExtractAppId(appKeyName);
+                    if (appId == null) continue;
+
+                    using var appKey = userKey.OpenSubKey(appKeyName);
+                    if (appKey == null) continue;
+
+                    var entry = snapshot.GetOrAdd(userName, appId);
+                    entry.StatusServiceStatus = TryReadInt(appKey.GetValue("Status"));
+                }
+            }
+        }
+
+        // ── pure helpers (unit-tested directly) ─────────────────────────────────
+
+        internal static bool LooksLikeGuid(string name) =>
+            !string.IsNullOrEmpty(name) && Guid.TryParse(name, out _);
+
+        /// <summary>
+        /// Win32Apps app keys are <c>&lt;appGuid&gt;_&lt;revision&gt;</c>; StatusServiceReports keys
+        /// are the bare GUID. Returns the lowercase app GUID or null for non-app keys (GRS, ...).
+        /// </summary>
+        internal static string? ExtractAppId(string keyName)
+        {
+            if (string.IsNullOrEmpty(keyName)) return null;
+            var candidate = keyName.Length >= 36 ? keyName.Substring(0, 36) : keyName;
+            return Guid.TryParse(candidate, out var g) ? g.ToString("D") : null;
+        }
+
+        internal static (int? state, long? errorCode) ParseEnforcementStateMessage(string json)
+        {
+            try
+            {
+                using var doc = JsonDocument.Parse(json);
+                int? state = null;
+                long? error = null;
+                if (doc.RootElement.ValueKind == JsonValueKind.Object)
+                {
+                    if (doc.RootElement.TryGetProperty("EnforcementState", out var s) && s.ValueKind == JsonValueKind.Number)
+                        state = s.GetInt32();
+                    if (doc.RootElement.TryGetProperty("ErrorCode", out var e) && e.ValueKind == JsonValueKind.Number)
+                        error = e.GetInt64();
+                }
+                return (state, error);
+            }
+            catch
+            {
+                return (null, null);
+            }
+        }
+
+        internal static int? TryReadInt(object? value)
+        {
+            switch (value)
+            {
+                case null: return null;
+                case int i: return i;
+                case long l: return unchecked((int)l);
+                case string s when int.TryParse(s, NumberStyles.Integer, CultureInfo.InvariantCulture, out var parsed):
+                    return parsed;
+                default: return null;
+            }
+        }
+
+        /// <summary>StateMessageEnforcementState bands (verified against decompiled IME 1.97/1.104).</summary>
+        internal static string ClassifyEnforcementState(int state)
+        {
+            if (state >= 1000 && state < 2000) return "success";
+            if (state >= 2000 && state < 3000) return "inProgress";
+            if (state >= 3000 && state < 4000) return "requirementsNotMet";
+            if (state >= 5000 && state < 6000) return "error";
+            if (state >= 6000 && state < 7000) return "notAttempted";
+            return "unknown";
+        }
+
+        /// <summary>AppInstallStatus (StatusService/ESP page): 1000er = installed, 3000 = failed.</summary>
+        internal static string? ClassifyStatusServiceStatus(int status)
+        {
+            if (status >= 1000 && status < 2000) return "installed";
+            if (status == 3000) return "failed";
+            if (status >= 2000 && status < 3000) return "notApplicable";
+            return null;
+        }
+
+        internal static List<AppRegistryChange> DiffSnapshots(ImeRegistrySnapshot previous, ImeRegistrySnapshot next)
+        {
+            var changes = new List<AppRegistryChange>();
+            foreach (var kv in next.Entries)
+            {
+                previous.Entries.TryGetValue(kv.Key, out var prev);
+                var changed = ChangedFields(prev, kv.Value);
+                if (changed.Count > 0)
+                    changes.Add(new AppRegistryChange(kv.Value, changed, isNew: prev == null));
+            }
+            return changes;
+        }
+
+        internal static List<string> ChangedFields(AppRegistryEntry? prev, AppRegistryEntry next)
+        {
+            var changed = new List<string>();
+            if (prev?.EnforcementState != next.EnforcementState) changed.Add("enforcementState");
+            if (prev?.ErrorCode != next.ErrorCode) changed.Add("errorCode");
+            if (prev?.ExitCode != next.ExitCode) changed.Add("exitCode");
+            if (prev?.StatusServiceStatus != next.StatusServiceStatus) changed.Add("statusServiceStatus");
+            if ((prev?.EspTracked ?? false) != next.EspTracked) changed.Add("espTracked");
+            if (!string.Equals(prev?.EspPhase, next.EspPhase, StringComparison.OrdinalIgnoreCase)) changed.Add("espPhase");
+            return changed;
+        }
+
+        /// <summary>"success" / "error" when the registry outcome is terminal, else null.</summary>
+        internal static string? TerminalOutcome(AppRegistryEntry entry)
+        {
+            if (entry.EnforcementState is int es)
+            {
+                var cls = ClassifyEnforcementState(es);
+                if (cls == "success") return "success";
+                if (cls == "error") return "error";
+            }
+            if (entry.StatusServiceStatus is int ss)
+            {
+                var cls = ClassifyStatusServiceStatus(ss);
+                if (cls == "installed") return "success";
+                if (cls == "failed") return "error";
+            }
+            return null;
+        }
+
+        /// <summary>
+        /// Divergence rules (observability, conservative — prefer false-negative over noise):
+        /// registry error vs log Installed, registry success vs log Error, or registry terminal
+        /// while the tracker (actively tracking other apps) never saw the app at all.
+        /// </summary>
+        internal static bool IsDivergent(
+            string registryOutcome,
+            AppPackageState? logState,
+            bool trackerHasAnyApps,
+            out string reasonCode)
+        {
+            if (logState == null)
+            {
+                if (trackerHasAnyApps)
+                {
+                    reasonCode = "app_unknown_to_log_tracking";
+                    return true;
+                }
+                reasonCode = string.Empty; // tracker idle (e.g. pre-ESP) — not judgeable
+                return false;
+            }
+
+            if (registryOutcome == "error" && logState.InstallationState == AppInstallationState.Installed)
+            {
+                reasonCode = "registry_error_log_installed";
+                return true;
+            }
+            if (registryOutcome == "success" && logState.InstallationState == AppInstallationState.Error)
+            {
+                reasonCode = "registry_success_log_error";
+                return true;
+            }
+
+            reasonCode = string.Empty;
+            return false;
+        }
+
+        // ── emission ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+
+        private void EmitStateEvent(AppRegistryChange change, DateTime nowUtc)
+        {
+            if (_stateEventsEmitted >= MaxStateEventsPerSession)
+            {
+                if (!_capNoticeEmitted)
+                {
+                    _capNoticeEmitted = true;
+                    _post.Emit(
+                        eventType: SharedEventTypes.RegistryAppState,
+                        source: SourceLabel,
+                        message: $"registry_app_state cap reached ({MaxStateEventsPerSession}) — further registry app-state changes are logged locally only",
+                        severity: EventSeverity.Warning,
+                        occurredAtUtc: nowUtc);
+                }
+                _logger?.Debug($"RegistryAppState: cap reached, suppressing {change.Entry.AppId}");
+                return;
+            }
+            _stateEventsEmitted++;
+
+            var e = change.Entry;
+            var data = new Dictionary<string, string>(StringComparer.Ordinal)
+            {
+                ["appId"] = e.AppId,
+                ["userContext"] = e.UserContext,
+                ["changedFields"] = string.Join(",", change.ChangedFields),
+            };
+            if (e.EnforcementState is int es)
+            {
+                data["enforcementState"] = es.ToString(CultureInfo.InvariantCulture);
+                data["enforcementClass"] = ClassifyEnforcementState(es);
+            }
+            if (e.ErrorCode is long ec) data["errorCode"] = ec.ToString(CultureInfo.InvariantCulture);
+            if (e.ExitCode is int xc) data["exitCode"] = xc.ToString(CultureInfo.InvariantCulture);
+            if (e.Intent is int intent) data["intent"] = intent.ToString(CultureInfo.InvariantCulture);
+            if (e.StatusServiceStatus is int ss)
+            {
+                data["statusServiceStatus"] = ss.ToString(CultureInfo.InvariantCulture);
+                var cls = ClassifyStatusServiceStatus(ss);
+                if (cls != null) data["statusServiceClass"] = cls;
+            }
+            if (e.EspTracked) data["espTracked"] = "true";
+            if (!string.IsNullOrEmpty(e.EspPhase)) data["espPhase"] = e.EspPhase!;
+
+            var summary = data.TryGetValue("enforcementClass", out var encls) ? encls
+                        : data.TryGetValue("statusServiceClass", out var sscls) ? sscls
+                        : "updated";
+
+            _post.Emit(
+                eventType: SharedEventTypes.RegistryAppState,
+                source: SourceLabel,
+                message: $"Registry app state: {e.AppId} ({(e.UserContext == ImeRegistrySnapshot.DeviceContext ? "device" : "user")}) -> {summary}",
+                severity: EventSeverity.Info,
+                data: data,
+                occurredAtUtc: nowUtc);
+        }
+
+        // Baseline entries in the summary's typed payload are capped — a long-lived device
+        // with many historical Win32Apps entries must not produce an oversized event.
+        internal const int MaxBaselineSummaryApps = 50;
+
+        private void EmitBaselineSummary(ImeRegistrySnapshot snapshot, DateTime nowUtc)
+        {
+            int success = 0, error = 0, inProgress = 0, other = 0;
+            var apps = new List<Dictionary<string, string>>();
+            foreach (var entry in snapshot.Entries.Values)
+            {
+                var cls = entry.EnforcementState is int es ? ClassifyEnforcementState(es) : null;
+                switch (cls)
+                {
+                    case "success": success++; break;
+                    case "error": error++; break;
+                    case "inProgress": inProgress++; break;
+                    default: other++; break;
+                }
+
+                if (apps.Count >= MaxBaselineSummaryApps) continue;
+                var app = new Dictionary<string, string>(StringComparer.Ordinal)
+                {
+                    ["appId"] = entry.AppId,
+                    ["userContext"] = entry.UserContext,
+                };
+                if (entry.EnforcementState is int state)
+                {
+                    app["enforcementState"] = state.ToString(CultureInfo.InvariantCulture);
+                    app["enforcementClass"] = ClassifyEnforcementState(state);
+                }
+                if (entry.ErrorCode is long ec) app["errorCode"] = ec.ToString(CultureInfo.InvariantCulture);
+                if (entry.ExitCode is int xc) app["exitCode"] = xc.ToString(CultureInfo.InvariantCulture);
+                if (!string.IsNullOrEmpty(entry.LastUpdatedUtc)) app["lastUpdatedUtc"] = entry.LastUpdatedUtc!;
+                if (entry.EspTracked) app["espTracked"] = "true";
+                apps.Add(app);
+            }
+
+            var data = new Dictionary<string, string>(StringComparer.Ordinal)
+            {
+                ["totalApps"] = snapshot.Entries.Count.ToString(CultureInfo.InvariantCulture),
+                ["successCount"] = success.ToString(CultureInfo.InvariantCulture),
+                ["errorCount"] = error.ToString(CultureInfo.InvariantCulture),
+                ["inProgressCount"] = inProgress.ToString(CultureInfo.InvariantCulture),
+                ["otherCount"] = other.ToString(CultureInfo.InvariantCulture),
+            };
+            if (snapshot.Entries.Count > MaxBaselineSummaryApps)
+                data["appListTruncated"] = "true";
+
+            _post.Emit(
+                eventType: SharedEventTypes.RegistryAppBaseline,
+                source: SourceLabel,
+                message: $"Registry app baseline at agent start: {snapshot.Entries.Count} apps ({success} success, {error} error, {inProgress} in progress) — state that predates this agent run",
+                severity: EventSeverity.Info,
+                data: data,
+                occurredAtUtc: nowUtc,
+                typedPayload: new { apps });
+        }
+
+        private void TrackTerminalTransitions(ImeRegistrySnapshot snapshot, DateTime nowUtc)
+        {
+            foreach (var kv in snapshot.Entries)
+            {
+                if (!_changedDuringSession.Contains(kv.Key)) continue; // baseline state — not ours to judge
+                var outcome = TerminalOutcome(kv.Value);
+                if (outcome == null)
+                {
+                    _terminalSinceUtc.Remove(kv.Key); // regressed to non-terminal — reset dwell
+                    continue;
+                }
+                if (!_terminalSinceUtc.ContainsKey(kv.Key))
+                    _terminalSinceUtc[kv.Key] = nowUtc;
+            }
+        }
+
+        private void EvaluateReconciliations(ImeRegistrySnapshot snapshot, DateTime nowUtc)
+        {
+            if (_trackerStateProbe == null) return;
+
+            List<AppPackageState>? trackerStates = null;
+            foreach (var kv in _terminalSinceUtc.ToList())
+            {
+                if (_reconciliationEmitted.Contains(kv.Key)) continue;
+                if (nowUtc - kv.Value < ReconcileSettleDelay) continue;
+                if (!snapshot.Entries.TryGetValue(kv.Key, out var entry)) continue;
+
+                var outcome = TerminalOutcome(entry);
+                if (outcome == null) continue;
+
+                trackerStates ??= (_trackerStateProbe() ?? Array.Empty<AppPackageState>()).ToList();
+                var logState = trackerStates.FirstOrDefault(p =>
+                    string.Equals(p.Id, entry.AppId, StringComparison.OrdinalIgnoreCase));
+
+                if (!IsDivergent(outcome, logState, trackerStates.Count > 0, out var reasonCode))
+                {
+                    _reconciliationEmitted.Add(kv.Key); // agreed (or not judgeable) — done with this app
+                    continue;
+                }
+
+                _reconciliationEmitted.Add(kv.Key);
+                var data = new Dictionary<string, string>(StringComparer.Ordinal)
+                {
+                    ["appId"] = entry.AppId,
+                    ["userContext"] = entry.UserContext,
+                    ["registryOutcome"] = outcome,
+                    ["reason"] = reasonCode,
+                    ["logState"] = logState?.InstallationState.ToString() ?? "unknown",
+                };
+                if (logState != null && !string.IsNullOrEmpty(logState.Name)) data["appName"] = logState.Name;
+                if (entry.EnforcementState is int es) data["enforcementState"] = es.ToString(CultureInfo.InvariantCulture);
+                if (entry.ErrorCode is long ec) data["errorCode"] = ec.ToString(CultureInfo.InvariantCulture);
+
+                _post.Emit(
+                    eventType: SharedEventTypes.AppStateReconciliation,
+                    source: SourceLabel,
+                    message: $"Registry/log divergence for app {entry.AppId}: registry={outcome}, log={data["logState"]} ({reasonCode}) — IME log patterns may have drifted",
+                    severity: EventSeverity.Warning,
+                    immediateUpload: true,
+                    data: data,
+                    occurredAtUtc: nowUtc);
+
+                _logger?.Warning($"RegistryAppState: divergence for {entry.AppId} — registry={outcome}, log={data["logState"]} ({reasonCode})");
+            }
+        }
+    }
+
+    /// <summary>Immutable-ish snapshot of the three IME registry surfaces, keyed per user-context + app.</summary>
+    internal sealed class ImeRegistrySnapshot
+    {
+        public const string DeviceContext = "00000000-0000-0000-0000-000000000000";
+
+        public Dictionary<string, AppRegistryEntry> Entries { get; } =
+            new Dictionary<string, AppRegistryEntry>(StringComparer.OrdinalIgnoreCase);
+
+        public AppRegistryEntry GetOrAdd(string userContext, string appId)
+        {
+            var normalizedUser = Guid.TryParse(userContext, out var g) ? g.ToString("D") : userContext;
+            var key = normalizedUser + "|" + appId;
+            if (!Entries.TryGetValue(key, out var entry))
+            {
+                entry = new AppRegistryEntry(key, normalizedUser, appId);
+                Entries[key] = entry;
+            }
+            return entry;
+        }
+    }
+
+    internal sealed class AppRegistryEntry
+    {
+        public AppRegistryEntry(string key, string userContext, string appId)
+        {
+            Key = key;
+            UserContext = userContext;
+            AppId = appId;
+        }
+
+        public string Key { get; }
+        public string UserContext { get; }
+        public string AppId { get; }
+        public string? LastUpdatedUtc { get; set; }
+        public int? EnforcementState { get; set; }
+        public long? ErrorCode { get; set; }
+        public int? ExitCode { get; set; }
+        public int? Intent { get; set; }
+        public int? StatusServiceStatus { get; set; }
+        public bool EspTracked { get; set; }
+        public string? EspPhase { get; set; }
+    }
+
+    internal sealed class AppRegistryChange
+    {
+        public AppRegistryChange(AppRegistryEntry entry, List<string> changedFields, bool isNew)
+        {
+            Entry = entry;
+            ChangedFields = changedFields;
+            IsNew = isNew;
+        }
+
+        public AppRegistryEntry Entry { get; }
+        public List<string> ChangedFields { get; }
+        public bool IsNew { get; }
+    }
+}
@@ -66,6 +66,19 @@ namespace AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Core.Monitoring.Enrollment.SystemSignals

        internal const string AutopilotErrorBackfillStateFileName = "autopilot-error-backfill.json";

+        /// <summary>
+        /// EventIDs that are STRUCTURAL noise on a Device Preparation session and are
+        /// suppressed there entirely (afee7ae0: 900+ occurrences of 1005 plus 400+ of
+        /// 417/418 in a nine-minute session, all expected): 100 "Autopilot policy not
+        /// found" (no deployment profile exists on WDP by design), 417/418 "duplicate
+        /// deployment workload/batch" (BootstrapperAgent SLDM progress-poll chatter),
+        /// 1005 ManagementService WIL error storm. Genuine WDP diagnostics (e.g. 408
+        /// provisioning warnings) keep flowing; Critical (level 1) records are never
+        /// suppressed. Classic sessions are unaffected — they keep the configurable
+        /// harmless-downgrade + rollup path instead.
+        /// </summary>
+        internal static readonly HashSet<int> DevicePreparationNoiseEventIds = new HashSet<int> { 100, 417, 418, 1005 };
+
        /// <summary>
        /// Per-EventId emission caps for harmless-downgraded events (session 8bc1180f,
        /// 2026-06-12). Windows can dump hundreds of identical EventID-100 "Autopilot policy
@@ -93,6 +106,7 @@ namespace AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Core.Monitoring.Enrollment.SystemSignals
        private readonly int _backfillLookbackMinutes;
        private readonly string _stateDirectory;
        private readonly HashSet<int> _harmlessEventIds;
+        private readonly bool _isDevicePreparation;

        private EventLogWatcher _autopilotWatcher;
        private EventLogWatcher _managementWatcher;
@@ -131,7 +145,8 @@ namespace AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Core.Monitoring.Enrollment.SystemSignals
            bool backfillEnabled = true,
            int backfillLookbackMinutes = 30,
            string stateDirectory = null,
-            int[] harmlessEventIds = null)
+            int[] harmlessEventIds = null,
+            bool isDevicePreparation = false)
        {
            _sessionId = sessionId ?? throw new ArgumentNullException(nameof(sessionId));
            _tenantId = tenantId ?? throw new ArgumentNullException(nameof(tenantId));
@@ -140,6 +155,7 @@ namespace AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Core.Monitoring.Enrollment.SystemSignals
            _logLevelMax = logLevelMax;
            _backfillEnabled = backfillEnabled;
            _backfillLookbackMinutes = backfillLookbackMinutes;
+            _isDevicePreparation = isDevicePreparation;
            _stateDirectory = stateDirectory != null ? Environment.ExpandEnvironmentVariables(stateDirectory) : null;
            _harmlessEventIds = harmlessEventIds != null && harmlessEventIds.Length > 0
                ? new HashSet<int>(harmlessEventIds)
@@ -166,7 +182,17 @@ namespace AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Core.Monitoring.Enrollment.SystemSignals
            if (_backfillEnabled)
            {
                BackfillTargetedEvents();
-                BackfillAutopilotErrors();
+                // WDP gate (afee7ae0): the error backfill replays ZTD registration /
+                // attestation errors (807/809/815/908) — on Device Preparation the 807
+                // ZtdDeviceIsNotRegistered answer is the EXPECTED state, not a failure.
+                if (!_isDevicePreparation)
+                {
+                    BackfillAutopilotErrors();
+                }
+                else
+                {
+                    _logger.Info("ModernDeployment: Device Preparation session — Autopilot error backfill skipped (ZTD errors are structural there)");
+                }
            }
            else
            {
@@ -393,6 +419,16 @@ namespace AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Core.Monitoring.Enrollment.SystemSignals
            }

            var effectiveLevel = level ?? 4;
+
+            // WDP structural-noise gate — see DevicePreparationNoiseEventIds. Sits before
+            // the severity mapping so suppressed records also skip FormatDescription().
+            // Critical (1) and LogAlways (0) records always pass.
+            if (_isDevicePreparation
+                && effectiveLevel >= 2
+                && DevicePreparationNoiseEventIds.Contains(eventId))
+            {
+                return EventVerdict.Suppress;
+            }
            switch (effectiveLevel)
            {
                case 1:
@@ -107,7 +107,8 @@ namespace AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Core.Monitoring.Enrollment.SystemSignals
        private bool _deviceSetupProvisioningCompleteFired;
        // Fire-once guard for AccountSetupProvisioningComplete event (session 330f73f3 fix)
        private bool _accountSetupProvisioningCompleteFired;
-        // WhiteGlove confirmation: DeviceSetup registry contains SaveWhiteGloveSuccessResult=succeeded
+        // DeviceSetup registry contains SaveWhiteGloveSuccessResult=succeeded. NOT a WhiteGlove
+        // indicator on Win11 25H2+ (see HasSaveWhiteGloveSuccessResult) — observability only.
        private bool _saveWhiteGloveSuccessResultSeen;
        // Track SaveWhiteGloveSuccessResult state transitions for observability (null → notStarted → succeeded)
        private string _lastSaveWhiteGloveState;
@@ -226,8 +227,12 @@ namespace AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Core.Monitoring.Enrollment.SystemSignals

        /// <summary>
        /// True when DeviceSetup registry JSON contains a SaveWhiteGloveSuccessResult property
-        /// with subcategoryState=succeeded. This is a definitive WhiteGlove (Pre-Provisioning)
-        /// confirmation signal — Windows only writes this property during White Glove flows.
+        /// with subcategoryState=succeeded. NOT a WhiteGlove indicator: on Win11 25H2 (build
+        /// 26200+) Windows writes this property as a trivially-succeeding step in EVERY
+        /// enrollment (validated 2026-08-18 — user-driven sessions f475e697/c601a24b/4219203f
+        /// all carry it). Kept for observability only (whiteglove_signal_* raw dumps); must not
+        /// be used for classification. Reliable WhiteGlove anchors are ModernDeployment
+        /// EventID 509 and the Shell-Core WhiteGlove-success events.
        /// </summary>
        public bool HasSaveWhiteGloveSuccessResult
        {
@@ -891,10 +896,10 @@ namespace AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Core.Monitoring.Enrollment.SystemSignals
                    string categoryStatusMessage = SafeGetString(root, "categoryStatusMessage");
                    var subcategories = ParseSubcategories(root);

-                    // Detect WhiteGlove signal in DeviceSetup category.
-                    // SaveWhiteGloveSuccessResult is NOT a *Subcategory-suffixed property, so
-                    // ParseSubcategories skips it. We scan the raw JSON explicitly.
-                    // Track state transitions for full observability (notStarted → succeeded).
+                    // Track the SaveWhiteGloveSuccessResult transitions in the DeviceSetup
+                    // category (observability only — NOT a WhiteGlove indicator on 25H2+, see
+                    // HasSaveWhiteGloveSuccessResult). It is NOT a *Subcategory-suffixed
+                    // property, so ParseSubcategories skips it; we scan the raw JSON explicitly.
                    if (string.Equals(categoryLabel, "DeviceSetup", StringComparison.OrdinalIgnoreCase))
                    {
                        foreach (var prop in root.EnumerateObject())
@@ -919,7 +924,7 @@ namespace AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Core.Monitoring.Enrollment.SystemSignals
                                    {
                                        _saveWhiteGloveSuccessResultSeen = true;
                                        _logger.Info("ProvisioningStatusTracker: SaveWhiteGloveSuccessResult=succeeded " +
-                                                     "— WhiteGlove confirmation signal");
+                                                     "(observability only — not a WhiteGlove indicator on 25H2+)");
                                    }
                                }
                                break;
@@ -34,6 +34,14 @@ namespace AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Core.Monitoring.Enrollment.SystemSignals
        internal const int EventId_ShellCore_WebAppEvent = 62407;
        internal const int BackfillLookbackMinutes = 5;

+        /// <summary>
+        /// Upper bound for the caller-supplied backfill lookback. Matches the agent's max
+        /// lifetime (360 min) — a window wider than the agent can ever live would only widen
+        /// the blast radius of a stale Shell-Core record without recovering anything the
+        /// current enrollment could still act on.
+        /// </summary>
+        internal const int BackfillLookbackMaxMinutes = 360;
+
        private static readonly HashSet<int> TrackedShellCoreEventIds = new HashSet<int>
        {
            EventId_ShellCore_WebAppStarted,
@@ -350,22 +358,39 @@ namespace AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Core.Monitoring.Enrollment.SystemSignals
        // Backfill (public — called by coordinator)
        // =====================================================================

+        /// <summary>Clamps a caller-supplied lookback into [1, <see cref="BackfillLookbackMaxMinutes"/>].</summary>
+        internal static int ClampLookbackMinutes(int lookbackMinutes)
+        {
+            if (lookbackMinutes < 1) return 1;
+            if (lookbackMinutes > BackfillLookbackMaxMinutes) return BackfillLookbackMaxMinutes;
+            return lookbackMinutes;
+        }
+
+        public void BackfillRecentHelloWizardStart() => BackfillRecentHelloWizardStart(BackfillLookbackMinutes);
+
        /// <summary>
-        /// Backfills recent ESP exit, ESP failure and Hello-wizard-start events from the
-        /// Shell-Core log on startup. Secondary recovery mechanism when state persistence is
-        /// unavailable — an agent restart while the user sits inside the Hello wizard would
-        /// otherwise lose the wizard-start observation (session 772fe502).
+        /// Same recovery with a caller-chosen lookback, so a restart can reach back over its whole
+        /// downtime (after a mid-ESP reboot the agent is gone from the forced restart until the
+        /// post-reboot logon relaunches it; after a crash, until the next boot — the scheduled task
+        /// has a BootTrigger only). Clamped to [1, <see cref="BackfillLookbackMaxMinutes"/>].
+        /// <para>
+        /// The 62407 records in the window are read but deliberately NOT replayed — see
+        /// <see cref="ReplayBackfillRecords"/>. They are counted and reported once as an
+        /// <c>agent_trace</c> so the gap stays visible in the timeline without becoming
+        /// decision-relevant.
+        /// </para>
        /// </summary>
-        public void BackfillRecentEspExitEvents()
+        public void BackfillRecentHelloWizardStart(int lookbackMinutes)
        {
            try
            {
-                var lookbackMs = BackfillLookbackMinutes * 60 * 1000;
+                var lookbackMs = ClampLookbackMinutes(lookbackMinutes) * 60 * 1000;
                var query = new EventLogQuery(
                    ShellCoreEventLogChannel,
                    PathType.LogName,
                    $"*[System[(EventID=62404 or EventID=62407) and TimeCreated[timediff(@SystemTime) <= {lookbackMs}]]]");

+                var records = new List<(int Id, string Description, DateTime OccurredAtUtc)>();
                using (var reader = new EventLogReader(query))
                {
                    for (EventRecord record = reader.ReadEvent(); record != null; record = reader.ReadEvent())
@@ -377,20 +402,135 @@ namespace AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Core.Monitoring.Enrollment.SystemSignals
                            // (EspAndHelloTrackerAdapter) can stamp signals with the source time
                            // rather than collapsing to wall-clock-now.
                            var timestamp = (record.TimeCreated ?? DateTime.UtcNow).ToUniversalTime();
-                            HandleBackfillRecord(record.Id, description, timestamp);
+                            records.Add((record.Id, description, timestamp));
                        }
                    }
                }
+
+                ReplayBackfillRecords(records);
            }
            catch (Exception ex)
            {
-                _logger.Warning($"ESP exit/failure event backfill failed: {ex.Message}");
+                _logger.Warning($"Shell-Core replay failed: {ex.Message}");
            }
        }

        /// <summary>
-        /// Internal backfill record handler — extracted for testability and to keep the
-        /// backfill loop free of direct event-processing logic. The
+        /// Replays a chronological batch of Shell-Core records. <b>Only the Hello-wizard start
+        /// (62404) is replayed.</b> ESP exits and ESP failures (62407) are counted and reported,
+        /// never re-raised.
+        /// <para>
+        /// Why the exit is excluded — the reasoning is the whole point of this method, so it lives
+        /// here rather than in a commit message:
+        /// </para>
+        /// <list type="number">
+        ///   <item>Windows writes the IDENTICAL description
+        ///     (<c>CommercialOOBE_ESPProgress_Page_Exiting</c>) for the intermediate
+        ///     DeviceSetup→AccountSetup transition and for the final post-AccountSetup exit, so a
+        ///     replayed record carries no evidence of its own position.</item>
+        ///   <item>Everything that could order it after the fact — the AccountSetup registry
+        ///     probe, the settled-apps probe — reads state as it is NOW, not as it was at the
+        ///     event's time.</item>
+        ///   <item>The reducer orders exits by INGEST ORDINAL, not by timestamp
+        ///     (<c>IsPostAccountSetupFinalExit</c>). A replayed historic exit is assigned a fresher
+        ///     ordinal than reality, so it looks post-AccountSetup by construction.</item>
+        ///   <item><c>HandleEspExitingV1</c> passes <c>espFinalExitInFlight: true</c> for every
+        ///     arriving exit. With restored state (AccountSetupEntered + a genuine IME user
+        ///     session + desktop arrived) arm C of <c>ShouldTransitionToAwaitingHello</c> then
+        ///     opens on a historic intermediate exit — a completion built on a fact that never
+        ///     happened.</item>
+        /// </list>
+        /// <para>
+        /// There is therefore no honest way to classify a replayed exit, so it must not enter the
+        /// decision stream at all. The same applies to a replayed ESP FAILURE, for the opposite
+        /// reason: re-injecting a historic failure as fresh can fail a session that recovered
+        /// (see ANALYZE-ESP-006, "ESP Failure Recovered After User Retry").
+        /// </para>
+        /// <para>
+        /// The Hello-wizard start is different in kind and is the observation this replay was
+        /// written for (session 772fe502): it is a CONSERVATIVE fact. It vetoes a premature
+        /// "Hello is disabled" skip and can never by itself complete a session, so replaying it
+        /// can only make the agent wait longer, never finish early.
+        /// </para>
+        /// </summary>
+        internal void ReplayBackfillRecords(
+            IReadOnlyList<(int Id, string Description, DateTime OccurredAtUtc)> records)
+        {
+            if (records == null || records.Count == 0) return;
+
+            var skippedExits = 0;
+            var skippedFailures = 0;
+            DateTime? oldestSkipped = null;
+            DateTime? newestSkipped = null;
+
+            foreach (var record in records)
+            {
+                var description = record.Description ?? string.Empty;
+
+                if (record.Id == EventId_ShellCore_WebAppStarted)
+                {
+                    HandleBackfillRecord(record.Id, description, record.OccurredAtUtc);
+                    continue;
+                }
+
+                var isFailure = HasEspFailurePattern(description);
+                var isExit = !isFailure && EspExitingPattern.IsMatch(description);
+                if (!isFailure && !isExit) continue;
+
+                if (isFailure) skippedFailures++; else skippedExits++;
+                if (oldestSkipped == null || record.OccurredAtUtc < oldestSkipped.Value)
+                    oldestSkipped = record.OccurredAtUtc;
+                if (newestSkipped == null || record.OccurredAtUtc > newestSkipped.Value)
+                    newestSkipped = record.OccurredAtUtc;
+            }
+
+            if (skippedExits > 0 || skippedFailures > 0)
+                EmitSkippedShellCoreRecords(skippedExits, skippedFailures, oldestSkipped, newestSkipped);
+        }
+
+        /// <summary>
+        /// One informational <c>agent_trace</c> naming the 62407 records the replay deliberately
+        /// did not re-raise. Decision-neutral by construction (informational events are exempt
+        /// from the dispatch guard) — its only job is to keep the blind window visible to whoever
+        /// debugs a session later, instead of the replay silently dropping evidence.
+        /// </summary>
+        private void EmitSkippedShellCoreRecords(
+            int skippedExits, int skippedFailures, DateTime? oldestUtc, DateTime? newestUtc)
+        {
+            try
+            {
+                _post.Emit(new EnrollmentEvent
+                {
+                    SessionId = _sessionId,
+                    TenantId = _tenantId,
+                    EventType = Constants.EventTypes.AgentTrace,
+                    Severity = EventSeverity.Info,
+                    Source = "ShellCoreTracker",
+                    Phase = EnrollmentPhase.Unknown,
+                    Message =
+                        $"Shell-Core replay skipped {skippedExits} ESP exit(s) and {skippedFailures} ESP failure(s) " +
+                        "from the window in which no agent process was running — a replayed 62407 cannot be placed " +
+                        "in time and must not reach the decision engine.",
+                    Data = new Dictionary<string, object>
+                    {
+                        { "skippedEspExits", skippedExits },
+                        { "skippedEspFailures", skippedFailures },
+                        { "oldestSkippedUtc", oldestUtc?.ToString("o") ?? string.Empty },
+                        { "newestSkippedUtc", newestUtc?.ToString("o") ?? string.Empty },
+                        { "reason", "replayed_62407_not_orderable" },
+                    },
+                });
+            }
+            catch (Exception ex)
+            {
+                _logger.Debug($"ShellCoreTracker: skipped-records trace emit failed: {ex.Message}");
+            }
+        }
+
+        /// <summary>
+        /// Internal backfill record handler — extracted for testability and to keep the replay
+        /// loop free of direct event-processing logic. Handles the Hello-wizard start ONLY; see
+        /// <see cref="ReplayBackfillRecords"/> for why 62407 is never replayed. The
        /// <paramref name="occurredAtUtc"/> is the original Shell-Core event time
        /// (<c>record.TimeCreated</c>); subscribers read it via
        /// <see cref="LastEventOccurredAtUtc"/> during their synchronous event handler.
@@ -427,42 +567,6 @@ namespace AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Core.Monitoring.Enrollment.SystemSignals
                return;
            }

-            if (EspExitingPattern.IsMatch(description))
-            {
-                bool shouldNotify = false;
-                lock (_stateLock)
-                {
-                    if (!_espExitDetected)
-                    {
-                        _espExitDetected = true;
-                        shouldNotify = true;
-                    }
-                }
-                if (shouldNotify)
-                {
-                    _helloTracker?.NotifyEspExited();
-                    _logger.Info($"Backfill: ESP exit event found in recent Shell-Core logs (originalAt={occurredAtUtc:o})");
-                    LastEventOccurredAtUtc = occurredAtUtc;
-                    try
-                    {
-                        try { FinalizingSetupPhaseTriggered?.Invoke(this, "esp_exiting"); }
-                        catch (Exception ex) { _logger.Error("Backfill: FinalizingSetupPhaseTriggered handler failed", ex); }
-                        try { EspExited?.Invoke(this, new EspExitedEventArgs(occurredAtUtc)); }
-                        catch (Exception ex) { _logger.Error("Backfill: EspExited handler failed", ex); }
-                    }
-                    finally { LastEventOccurredAtUtc = null; }
-                }
-            }
-
-            if (HasEspFailurePattern(description))
-            {
-                var failureType = ExtractEspFailureType(description);
-                _logger.Info($"Backfill: ESP failure event found in recent Shell-Core logs: {failureType} (originalAt={occurredAtUtc:o})");
-                LastEventOccurredAtUtc = occurredAtUtc;
-                try { EspFailureDetected?.Invoke(this, failureType); }
-                catch (Exception ex) { _logger.Error($"Backfill: EspFailureDetected handler failed for '{failureType}'", ex); }
-                finally { LastEventOccurredAtUtc = null; }
-            }
        }

        // =====================================================================
@@ -52,6 +52,7 @@ namespace AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Core.Monitoring.Enrollment.SystemSignals
        private readonly HashSet<string> _sources;
        private readonly int _sessionStalledAfterProbeIndex;
        private readonly HashSet<int> _harmlessModernDeploymentEventIds;
+        private readonly bool _isDevicePreparation;

        private readonly object _stateLock = new object();
        private readonly HashSet<int> _firedProbeIndices = new HashSet<int>();
@@ -151,7 +152,8 @@ namespace AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Core.Monitoring.Enrollment.SystemSignals
            int[] traceIndices,
            string[] sources,
            int sessionStalledAfterProbeIndex,
-            int[] harmlessModernDeploymentEventIds = null)
+            int[] harmlessModernDeploymentEventIds = null,
+            bool isDevicePreparation = false)
        {
            _sessionId = sessionId ?? throw new ArgumentNullException(nameof(sessionId));
            _tenantId = tenantId ?? throw new ArgumentNullException(nameof(tenantId));
@@ -161,10 +163,21 @@ namespace AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Core.Monitoring.Enrollment.SystemSignals
            _traceIndices = new HashSet<int>(traceIndices ?? new int[0]);
            _sources = new HashSet<string>(sources ?? new string[0], StringComparer.OrdinalIgnoreCase);
            _sessionStalledAfterProbeIndex = sessionStalledAfterProbeIndex;
+            _isDevicePreparation = isDevicePreparation;
            _harmlessModernDeploymentEventIds = new HashSet<int>(
                harmlessModernDeploymentEventIds != null && harmlessModernDeploymentEventIds.Length > 0
                    ? harmlessModernDeploymentEventIds
                    : DefaultHarmlessModernDeploymentEventIds);
+
+            // WDP gate (afee7ae0): the structural WDP noise IDs (417/418 duplicate-workload
+            // chatter, 1005 WIL storm, ...) must never count as stall anomalies on Device
+            // Preparation, independent of what the tenant-configured harmless list contains.
+            // The channels themselves stay scanned — WDP's provisioning stack logs genuine
+            // diagnostics (e.g. 408) into the very same Autopilot channel.
+            if (_isDevicePreparation)
+            {
+                _harmlessModernDeploymentEventIds.UnionWith(ModernDeploymentTracker.DevicePreparationNoiseEventIds);
+            }
        }

        /// <summary>
@@ -244,7 +257,7 @@ namespace AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Core.Monitoring.Enrollment.SystemSignals

            result.DurationMs = (int)(DateTime.UtcNow - started).TotalMilliseconds;

-            // Always log locally for diagnostics — the agent_YYYYMMDD.log is the always-on observability.
+            // Always log locally for diagnostics — agent.log is the always-on observability.
            var anomaliesStr = result.Anomalies.Count > 0
                ? $"anomalies=[{string.Join(",", result.Anomalies)}]"
                : "quiet";
@@ -368,6 +381,11 @@ namespace AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Core.Monitoring.Enrollment.SystemSignals

        private void ScanProvisioningRegistry(ProbeResult result)
        {
+            // Device Preparation writes no ESP category values — the three Status JSONs
+            // below are ESP-only constructs, so the scan can never find anything there.
+            if (_isDevicePreparation)
+                return;
+
            using (var key = Registry.LocalMachine.OpenSubKey(@"SOFTWARE\Microsoft\Provisioning\AutopilotSettings", writable: false))
            {
                if (key == null)
@@ -562,10 +580,22 @@ namespace AutopilotMonitor.Agent.V2.Core.Monitoring.Enrollment.SystemSignals
                var scanText = rawLine;
                if (CmTraceLogParser.TryParseLine(rawLine, out var entry))
                {
-                    // Provably stale → not progress. (TryParseLine falls back to now on an
-                    // unparseable timestamp, which keeps the line fresh — the safe default.)
-                    if (entry.Timestamp < cutoffUtc)
-                        continue;
+                    // Provably stale → not progress. A line without a parseable timestamp counts
+                    // as fresh — the safe default, since treating it as stale would hide progress.
+                    //
+                    // This collector reads a file snapshot rather than tailing it, so it cannot
+                    // measure the writer's UTC offset itself and falls back to this process's zone
+                    // (see ResolveUtcAssumingReaderZone). That fallback is wrong by exactly the
+                    // gap between the two processes' zone beliefs. It is the pre-existing
+                    // behaviour, kept deliberately unchanged here; the tracker-owned calibrator is
+                    // wired in separately so this commit shifts no behaviour.
+                    if (entry.HasTimestamp)
+                    {
+                        var entryUtc = entry.TimestampUtc
+                            ?? CmTraceLogParser.ResolveUtcAssumingReaderZone(entry.LocalTimestamp);
+                        if (entryUtc < cutoffUtc)
+                            continue;
+                    }
                    scanText = entry.Message;
                }

--- a/Show More
+++ b/Show More