diff --git a/crates/scanner/src/scanner.rs b/crates/scanner/src/scanner.rs
index ae6379cd0..d4dfddb1a 100644
--- a/crates/scanner/src/scanner.rs
+++ b/crates/scanner/src/scanner.rs
@@ -1662,14 +1662,17 @@ async fn run_data_scanner_cycle_with_budget(
         .is_some_and(|(_, grants)| grants.iter().any(|grant| !grant.lease.is_valid()));
     if let Some((notification_system, grants)) = remote_publication_leases.take() {
         let release_result = notification_system.release_scanner_publication_leases(grants).await;
-        if lease_expired || release_result.is_err() {
+        let lease_release_failed = release_result.is_err();
+        if lease_expired || lease_release_failed {
             // A lease that expired or could not be released is never treated
             // as a successful authoritative publication. The peer may have
             // admitted movement immediately after the lease ended.
             usage_persist_outcome = if usage_persist_outcome == DataUsagePersistOutcome::Failed {
                 DataUsagePersistOutcome::Failed
+            } else if lease_release_failed {
+                DataUsagePersistOutcome::Deferred(ScannerCycleDeferReason::PublicationLeaseReleaseFailed)
             } else {
-                DataUsagePersistOutcome::Deferred(ScannerCycleDeferReason::ActivityBaselineUnavailable)
+                DataUsagePersistOutcome::Deferred(ScannerCycleDeferReason::PublicationLeaseDeadlineExceeded)
             };
         }
     }
diff --git a/crates/scanner/src/scanner/tests.rs b/crates/scanner/src/scanner/tests.rs
index 0c02caec0..88932cab9 100644
--- a/crates/scanner/src/scanner/tests.rs
+++ b/crates/scanner/src/scanner/tests.rs
@@ -3393,6 +3393,44 @@ async fn coordinator_does_not_put_after_remote_generation_flip() {
     assert_eq!(store.put_counts.lock().await.get(&key), None);
 }
 
+#[tokio::test]
+async fn coordinator_classifies_an_expired_publication_lease() {
+    let store = Arc::new(MemoryConfigStore::default());
+    let (sender, receiver) = mpsc::channel(1);
+    sender
+        .send(complete_usage_with_bucket_count(
+            Some(std::time::SystemTime::UNIX_EPOCH + Duration::from_secs(20)),
+            1,
+        ))
+        .await
+        .expect("usage snapshot should enqueue");
+    drop(sender);
+
+    let expired = std::time::Instant::now()
+        .checked_sub(std::time::Duration::from_secs(1))
+        .expect("test instant should support a one-second subtraction");
+    let outcome =
+        store_data_usage_in_backend_with_outcome_for_epoch_and_baseline_and_route_probe_for_publication_epoch_and_lease_fence(
+            CancellationToken::new(),
+            store.clone(),
+            receiver,
+            None,
+            Some(DataUsagePersistBaseline {
+                data: None,
+                revision: DataUsageCacheRevision::Missing,
+            }),
+            ScannerPublicationFence::new(None, Some(expired), None),
+            || async { false },
+        )
+        .await;
+
+    assert_eq!(
+        outcome,
+        DataUsagePersistOutcome::Deferred(ScannerCycleDeferReason::PublicationLeaseDeadlineExceeded)
+    );
+    assert!(store.put_counts.lock().await.is_empty(), "expired lease must prevent a PUT");
+}
+
 #[tokio::test]
 #[serial]
 async fn test_deferred_usage_save_keeps_last_real_save_metric() {
@@ -4446,6 +4484,7 @@ fn scanner_cycle_cache_floor_stays_pending_during_deferred_usage_publication() {
         ScannerCycleDeferReason::ActivityBaselineUnavailable,
         ScannerCycleDeferReason::PublicationLeaseBudgetExceeded,
         ScannerCycleDeferReason::PublicationLeaseDeadlineExceeded,
+        ScannerCycleDeferReason::PublicationLeaseReleaseFailed,
     ] {
         let deferred = DataUsagePersistOutcome::Deferred(reason);
         assert_eq!(
@@ -4632,6 +4671,10 @@ fn scanner_publication_lease_budget_has_a_strict_ttl_boundary() {
         ScannerCycleDeferReason::PublicationLeaseDeadlineExceeded.as_str(),
         "publication_lease_deadline_exceeded"
     );
+    assert_eq!(
+        ScannerCycleDeferReason::PublicationLeaseReleaseFailed.as_str(),
+        "publication_lease_release_failed"
+    );
 }
 
 #[tokio::test]
diff --git a/crates/scanner/src/scanner/usage_store.rs b/crates/scanner/src/scanner/usage_store.rs
index a32e0cecf..6edda880c 100644
--- a/crates/scanner/src/scanner/usage_store.rs
+++ b/crates/scanner/src/scanner/usage_store.rs
@@ -225,7 +225,7 @@ where
             data_usage_info.scanner_epoch = Some(leader_epoch);
         }
         if remote_lease_expired(remote_lease_deadline) {
-            outcome = DataUsagePersistOutcome::Deferred(ScannerCycleDeferReason::ActivityBaselineUnavailable);
+            outcome = DataUsagePersistOutcome::Deferred(ScannerCycleDeferReason::PublicationLeaseDeadlineExceeded);
             break 'updates;
         }
         if let Some(expected_epoch) = expected_publication_epoch
@@ -497,7 +497,7 @@ where
                 break DataUsagePersistOutcome::Deferred(ScannerCycleDeferReason::DataMovement);
             }
             if remote_lease_expired(remote_lease_deadline) {
-                break DataUsagePersistOutcome::Deferred(ScannerCycleDeferReason::ActivityBaselineUnavailable);
+                break DataUsagePersistOutcome::Deferred(ScannerCycleDeferReason::PublicationLeaseDeadlineExceeded);
             }
 
             let done_save = Metrics::time(Metric::SaveUsage);
@@ -510,7 +510,7 @@ where
                 };
                 if remote_lease_expired(remote_lease_deadline) {
                     done_save();
-                    break DataUsagePersistOutcome::Deferred(ScannerCycleDeferReason::ActivityBaselineUnavailable);
+                    break DataUsagePersistOutcome::Deferred(ScannerCycleDeferReason::PublicationLeaseDeadlineExceeded);
                 }
                 save_config_shared_with_preconditions_and_lease_fence(
                     storeapi.clone(),
diff --git a/crates/scanner/src/scanner_io.rs b/crates/scanner/src/scanner_io.rs
index 9036a9fee..e1abbf474 100644
--- a/crates/scanner/src/scanner_io.rs
+++ b/crates/scanner/src/scanner_io.rs
@@ -582,6 +582,9 @@ pub(crate) enum ScannerCycleDeferReason {
     /// operation. This can occur even when the configured budget fits the
     /// nominal TTL because lease acquisition consumed part of the window.
     PublicationLeaseDeadlineExceeded,
+    /// A remote lease could not be released after the persistence attempt.
+    /// Keep the cycle deferred because the peer may still admit movement.
+    PublicationLeaseReleaseFailed,
 }
 
 impl ScannerCycleDeferReason {
@@ -591,6 +594,7 @@ impl ScannerCycleDeferReason {
             Self::DataMovement => "data_movement",
             Self::PublicationLeaseBudgetExceeded => "publication_lease_budget_exceeded",
             Self::PublicationLeaseDeadlineExceeded => "publication_lease_deadline_exceeded",
+            Self::PublicationLeaseReleaseFailed => "publication_lease_release_failed",
         }
     }
 }