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Mined per-spec failure data from the 32 completed Core E2E main runs since the 2026-07-18 quarantine delist (failed-shard logs; a green shard means every spec in it passed). 26 specs failed or retry-flaked within the 10 most recent completed runs; they seed PROBATION_SPECS in tests/integration/playwright.config.ts. The remaining 62 files form the stable tier and are the only specs that can fail the e2e-verdict job. Mechanism extends the existing quarantine list rather than adding a parallel one: PULSE_E2E_TIER=stable ignores probation specs, PULSE_E2E_TIER=probation runs only them, unset runs the full suite (local behavior unchanged). CI runs both tiers per shard against the same containers; the probation pass sits behind continue-on-error with its own report/results dirs and artifacts, so a probation flake is reported in the shard summary without painting main red. Promotion rule, documented next to the list: a probation spec promotes to stable after 10 consecutive green main runs with no failure and no retry-flake; one incident on main demotes a stable spec back. In the newest completed run (29729544151) every failure was in a probation spec — under this split that run's verdict is green. Contract-Neutral: CI-only E2E tier split: gating semantics of push-CI verdict; local npm test behavior and dev-runtime orchestration unchanged, no public contract delta