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Oliver Kieselbach
1bf37f6761
Analyze rules only (gather stats stay per-batch-deduped until Q6 is
fixed - never silently included). Per (tenant, rule) the radar compares
the trailing 7-day hit rate (FireCount/SessionsEvaluated from the daily
RuleStats rows) against the prior 28-day baseline and fires only when
the window has >=5 hit sessions and >=20 evaluated sessions, the rate
is >=2x baseline AND the Wilson 95% intervals are disjoint
(MetricsMath.WilsonInterval/RateIncreaseSeparated, hand-computed test
vectors). Suppressed for deleted rules, rules inside the CreatedAt
grace period (<35d), rules edited inside the window, empty baselines,
and the RuleRegressionRadarDisabled app-setting kill switch.
Alert episodes live as ruleregression|{ruleId} rows in the notification
tracker (third keyspace): AddEntity-409 dedup = one bell + one
RuleFrequencyRegression ops event (category Tenant, Warning, full
numbers, dual-registered in the web OPS_EVENT_TYPES) per episode;
numbers refresh while active without moving FirstNotifiedAt; episodes
re-arm under 1.5x baseline, on fire-stop, or via the tracker's 30d
retention prune (spec-intended reminder). On-fire dimension correlation
(osBuild/model/agentVersion/imeVersion; hit set from a RuleResults
range scan intersected with the window sessions) reports both shares
with the "correlated, not necessarily causal" wording contract or
honestly "no clear dimension concentration". Radar runs in the daily
maintenance pass after the rule-stats aggregation, anchored on
yesterday (whole days only).
Surfaces: regressions[] in the rule-stats response (MCP get_rule_stats
inherits it), tenant bell deep-linking to the rule card, and the
analyze-rules page gains a densified 30-day fire sparkline plus a
regression badge while an episode is active. OKF doc
backend/rule-regression-radar.md + index/log.
Backend 3474/3474 (27 new: Wilson vectors, every suppression branch,
window boundary dates, re-arm matrix, dimension gates, tracker
round-trips incl. tri-states, keyspace dedup/prune, wording pins),
web tsc + vitest 627/627, MCP tsc + 455 passed.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>