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AutopilotMonitor/docs/backend
Oliver Kieselbach 040e411958 feat(classification,calibration): rule 5a completed-assumed, max-lifetime grace skip, drift-radar floors
First real calibration read (2026-08-27, four days instrumented) drove three
data-backed changes:

- Rule 5a: past grace (or with the agent provably gone), Device Setup done +
  real-user desktop + zero app_install_failed reconciles to Succeeded
  "completed (assumed)" (r5_assumed). r5-Incomplete devices re-enrolled at
  2.6% - the succeeded background, not the ~29% failure level - and the
  sampled desktop half had clean app records. No desktop or any failed app
  stays Incomplete; rule 4 remains the immediate desktop+Hello reconcile.
- Rule 5 skips the AwaitingUser grace once either max-lifetime watchdog shape
  (enrollment_failed/agent_timeout, agent_shutting_down/max_lifetime) is in
  the stream: all five observed maxlife:r5_awaiting parks expired unhealed
  while live-agent parks upgraded 7/26. The maxlife ingest appends its
  trigger event to the read stream so the fact is never missed; late
  telemetry still heals a terminal verdict. WhiteGlove rule 1b keeps its
  park (its one episode healed).
- Drift radar: MinWindowHits raised to 10 (a 3-hit episode survived as
  noise), per-path share regression now needs >=5 baseline hits (new or
  renamed vocabulary cannot "regress"), and rule-shaped legacy:* paths count
  into the silence/classifier-verdict group sums on both sides of the
  2026-08-23 instrumentation cutover - dissolving the lift-124 silence
  artifact. Episodes below the fire floors clear themselves.

Backend only; the new path appears in the calibration matrix dynamically.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-08-27 18:10:19 +02:00
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