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Seven sits-d Cloud PCs enrolled the same day with identical configuration (~138 required apps at the user-ESP gate, DeviceGuard/DmaGuard device-assigned). The two that finished AccountSetup before the coalesced reboot landed succeeded; the five the reboot killed in Stage=EspAccountSetup never derived a completion again and ended Incomplete on healthy devices. Two defects behind that: ShellCoreTracker.BackfillRecentEspExitEvents() has existed since session 772fe502 but no caller ever invoked it, so the Shell-Core watcher only saw records written after Start(). Every agent restart silently dropped an ESP exit (62407) or Hello-wizard start (62404) from its downtime. EspAndHelloHost.Start() now calls it, and the fixed 5-minute window is sized to the actual downtime when the previous run died to a reboot (LastBootUtc, clamped to 360 min). The user-apps-settled synthesis ran only on the EspExited edge. When the ESP page exits with apps still in flight the single attempt misses and nothing re-checks — 8110e262 and a89aac2d both reached 138/138 apps, 0 failed, and still never completed. The exit edge is now recorded and the synthesis re-evaluated from ImeLogTracker.OnAppStateChanged. No new completion path: the gate conditions are unchanged, this only gives the existing conservative check a second look. The fire-once claim moves to Interlocked (edge and re-check run on different threads) and the re-check does not re-emit app_install_starved. Rules: ANALYZE-ESP-005 gains on_event:session_stalled so a hung session produces a finding at the 60-minute stall instead of staying finding-less for hours (verified against 8110e262 — fired, confidence 95). New ANALYZE-APP-016 turns the already-emitted app_install_starved events into a customer finding and, unlike ANALYZE-APP-015, fires even on a succeeded session: 3b9291aa was recorded Succeeded with 99 required apps that never started installing. ANALYZE-APP-015 and ANALYZE-ESP-001 were considered for the stall trigger and deliberately left alone — APP-015 is the documented worked example of the terminal-precondition trap, and ESP-001's phase_duration gate on a still-open phase is unverified mid-run. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>